OK, Im ready to bet 1 month avatar controll that the game will not do 600k LT in japan We will probably be able to decide this after 1 month the game is released. Anyone up for the bet?

This gave me a big grin. Damn women, ruining the game industry.

Honestly, I can't guess what the sales will be.

But here's hoping they're ovber a million.

it'll probably do solid, though not on the level of, say, Mario Bros Wii or SSBB. It'll probably at least be a million seller.

I think in Japan alone it might easily do 500k if marketed as heavily as people say it is already marketed there.

1 million would be a big success for a new RPG franchise I guess.

Anything above that is just my wet dream.

If the game gets great reviews, sells 1-2 million units, and gets awards it will be a slap in the face to Square enix especially since Sakaguchi is directing it. I hope the game achieves all of them.

Nintendo is going all out for this game. I just hope they are working on a English localization. I've enjoyed Mistwalker's games this generation. Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey. That the creator of Final Fantasy is making a new rpg and it's an Nintendo IP has me really excited. It looks great as does Xenoblade. I just have to keep hoping they'll be coming out in America.

I think people should take it easy in terms of what they can expect from this game in Japan.

To be honest, I can see a 124k-135k debut and unusual legs can bring it to 260k-275k but I would not put too much stock in anymore.

Then again, I haven't seen Nintendo promote a game this much since Monster Hunter Tri.

500k or more would be monumental success in Japan. The thing with Japan is that the is perceived as an even more of casual or family machine there over in the West.

Part of the reason Nintendo probably is pumping and publishing this game is because they know you have to have some meat on its system for the userbase to buy these type of games and to attract publishers to try to publish them on their syste. The only games that sell decently that aren't from Nintendo are liscene games, and even Nintendo has had a horrendous time pushing their non casual or Mario games in Japan on the Wii.

This is less about saving JRPGs, it is about saving any cred the Wii has of being more then just a casual machine and to try to extend it into the next console.

I didn't know where to post this, in this thread or the one about usurping Final Fantasy :P but I saw this on the front page.

Is not impossible to sell over a million copies for a new RPG IP in Japan (by their time), but only a few have managed to do it, I searched in vgchartz the sales of the first game of some series and only two games sold over 1 million (Excluding FF, DQ and Pokemon).

Seiken Densetsu:  FW 71K LTD 380K

Tales of Phantasia:  FW 109K LTD 395K

Star Ocean:  FW 105K LTD 228K

Tactics Ogre:  FW 312K LTD 709K

Chrono Trigger:  FW 805K LTD 2m

Mother:  LTD 400K (according to wikipedia)

Soul Blazer:  LTD 200K (according to wikipedia)

Parasite Eve:  FW 442K LTD 1m

Vagrant Story:  FW 160K LTD 300K

Valkyrie Profile:  311K LTD 634K

Xenogears:  FW 511K LTD 890K

Suikoden:  FW 41K LTD 213K

White Knight Chronicles: FW 207K LTD 360K

Blue Dragon: FW 83K LTD 210K

The Last Remnant: FW 159K LTD 178K

Infinite Undiscovery: FW 89K LTD 123K

Lost Odyssey: FW 56K LTD 106K

The World Ends With You: FW 80K LTD 208K

Eternal Sonata: FW 47K LTD 80K (360) FW 34K LTD 75K (PS3 one year later)

ASH: Archaic Sealed Heat: FW 55K LTD 115K

Of course there are many more RPG series/games but these are the ones that came to my mind, I was specially interested in the FW and LTD sales of the first Fire Emblem and the first Shin Megami Tensei but I couldn't find them.

I would like to be wrong when I say that The Last Story wont break 1m but I think that it will need a lot of luck to do that, the sales of others RPG on Wii doesn't help either.

Arc Rise Fantasia: FW 27K LTD 58K

Tales of Graces: FW 140K LTD 220K

Xenoblade: FW 82K LTD 148K

Final Fantasy Fables: FW 46K LTD 109K

Final Fantasy CC: FW 35K LTD 80K

Dragon Quest Swords: FW 310K LTD 502K

Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn: FW 76K LTD 165K

Like I said before its not impossible to break a million for a new RPG IP, but The Last Story will need a lot of advertising, great reviews and word of mouth. And even if it has all that I could only see it reaching 600K-700K.