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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony reaffirms PS3 2010 sales projections

psrock on 22 December 2010
Immortal said:
postofficebuddy said:
Immortal said:

How much did the PS3 ship in Q1FY? I presume it's in first place so far considering its huge lead over the other consoles in the last quarter.


It shipped 2.42 million in Q1 of the fiscal year and 3.5 million in Q2. It's 950k ahead of the Wii so far for the fiscal year. MS's fiscal year starts in July but lining up the March-September quarters PS3 is ahead of 360 by 1.62 million. Assuming they do hit their projection and the January-March 2011 quarter is similar to this year than shipments for the holiday quarter should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 million. Assuming Ninty hits their 17.5 million Wii projection holiday shipments should be around 9.5-10.5 million. MS is a question mark. We don't have any projections to gauge off of.

Thanks for the information.

Looking at recent sales via VGC/NPD/MC, I don't think that the PS3 will actually hit its target; EMEAA would have to have astonishing sales for this to be accomplished. By sales, I should think that PS3'll finish around 2.1m or so in Americas for the quarter and 550k or so in Japan. I really don't see EMEAA sales being twice that of Americas in the holiday quarter. On top of that, Move was likely boosting sales at the end of last quarter and substantial shipments to be sold in early next quarter were probably made at that time, reducing shipments from this quarter. I'd therefore expect shipments to be around 5-5.5m rather than 7m. Unless Sony has something massive up its sleeves, I simply don't see how they expect to outsell Wii's March 2010 quarter substantially.

So, Sony who shipped these consoles who just said they are on track to 15 million, but you seem to know better.



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Immortal on 22 December 2010
psrock said:
Immortal said:
postofficebuddy said:
Immortal said:

How much did the PS3 ship in Q1FY? I presume it's in first place so far considering its huge lead over the other consoles in the last quarter.


It shipped 2.42 million in Q1 of the fiscal year and 3.5 million in Q2. It's 950k ahead of the Wii so far for the fiscal year. MS's fiscal year starts in July but lining up the March-September quarters PS3 is ahead of 360 by 1.62 million. Assuming they do hit their projection and the January-March 2011 quarter is similar to this year than shipments for the holiday quarter should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 million. Assuming Ninty hits their 17.5 million Wii projection holiday shipments should be around 9.5-10.5 million. MS is a question mark. We don't have any projections to gauge off of.

Thanks for the information.

Looking at recent sales via VGC/NPD/MC, I don't think that the PS3 will actually hit its target; EMEAA would have to have astonishing sales for this to be accomplished. By sales, I should think that PS3'll finish around 2.1m or so in Americas for the quarter and 550k or so in Japan. I really don't see EMEAA sales being twice that of Americas in the holiday quarter. On top of that, Move was likely boosting sales at the end of last quarter and substantial shipments to be sold in early next quarter were probably made at that time, reducing shipments from this quarter. I'd therefore expect shipments to be around 5-5.5m rather than 7m. Unless Sony has something massive up its sleeves, I simply don't see how they expect to outsell Wii's March 2010 quarter substantially.

So, Sony who shipped these consoles who just said they are on track to 15 million, but you seem to know better.

No, I do not claim to know better. Based on the data that we have, I merely conclude that I find such a target rather difficult to attain. This is a Sales Discussion forum; if we do not make predictions of our own and simply follow what the hardware manufacturers claim, there is little purpose in discussion.

Also, it's not as if hardware manufacturers are always right; Nintendo expected Wii to ship 26m early on last year and it ended at 20.5m.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

wholikeswood on 22 December 2010

Bracing for adjustments.



whatever on 22 December 2010
ImJustBayuum said:
ElGranCabeza said:
fighter said:
Wagram said:
psrock said:

They are selling better somewhere not Japan or US i guess.


EMEAA is a huge territory. Honestly Sony hitting the gutter was probably the best thing for them. They are kicking so much ass now. Best 3rd place ever and has an AMAZING category of games on the PS3 now. God the games next year alone could give ya the shakes.


Are you saying 2011 will be the best year of the PS3 ?

Honestly that sounds pretty similar to what was said about 2008/9/10 being the best years of the PS3 (btw when did it, according to you, "hit the gutter" ?).

Are you being ironic or is it really what you think ?

I don't know whether or not you're being sarcastic but Sony shipped more in '09 than they did in '08, they shipped more in '08 than they did in '07, and, if their projection holds, they'll have shipped more in 10 than they did in '09, so when people said the year prior to it happening that "2008/09/10 will the PS3 best year ever", they were right.

Channel Stuffing more likely this year...I mean the gap between the PS3 and 360 in the November NPD was huge

You do realize that NPD is just estimates and they make adjustments to their numbers all the time.  We'll know a lot more come the financial reports at the end of March.



psrock on 22 December 2010
Immortal said:
psrock said:
Immortal said:
postofficebuddy said:
Immortal said:

How much did the PS3 ship in Q1FY? I presume it's in first place so far considering its huge lead over the other consoles in the last quarter.


It shipped 2.42 million in Q1 of the fiscal year and 3.5 million in Q2. It's 950k ahead of the Wii so far for the fiscal year. MS's fiscal year starts in July but lining up the March-September quarters PS3 is ahead of 360 by 1.62 million. Assuming they do hit their projection and the January-March 2011 quarter is similar to this year than shipments for the holiday quarter should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 million. Assuming Ninty hits their 17.5 million Wii projection holiday shipments should be around 9.5-10.5 million. MS is a question mark. We don't have any projections to gauge off of.

Thanks for the information.

Looking at recent sales via VGC/NPD/MC, I don't think that the PS3 will actually hit its target; EMEAA would have to have astonishing sales for this to be accomplished. By sales, I should think that PS3'll finish around 2.1m or so in Americas for the quarter and 550k or so in Japan. I really don't see EMEAA sales being twice that of Americas in the holiday quarter. On top of that, Move was likely boosting sales at the end of last quarter and substantial shipments to be sold in early next quarter were probably made at that time, reducing shipments from this quarter. I'd therefore expect shipments to be around 5-5.5m rather than 7m. Unless Sony has something massive up its sleeves, I simply don't see how they expect to outsell Wii's March 2010 quarter substantially.

So, Sony who shipped these consoles who just said they are on track to 15 million, but you seem to know better.

No, I do not claim to know better. Based on the data that we have, I merely conclude that I find such a target rather difficult to attain. This is a Sales Discussion forum; if we do not make predictions of our own and simply follow what the hardware manufacturers claim, there is little purpose in discussion.

Also, it's not as if hardware manufacturers are always right; Nintendo expected Wii to ship 26m early on last year and it ended at 20.5m.


The data you have are all sold to consumers which has nothing to do with what we are speaking about. When NPD, MC, vgc release their numbers, it's sold to customers. Sony is talking about shipping to retailers.

It's Dec, we have 3 months to go, they usually change their forcast around now if they believed they were not going to make it. They stood by their expectation.



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Nsanity on 22 December 2010
wholikeswood said:

Bracing for adjustments.


The whole purpose of VGChartz is to track sold not shipped numbers.



psrock on 22 December 2010
Nsanity said:
wholikeswood said:

Bracing for adjustments.


The whole purpose of VGChartz is to track sold not shipped numbers.


Trust, many adjustment has been made due to shipping numbers. ( Wii, 2008)



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
ImJustBayuum on 22 December 2010
whatever said:
ImJustBayuum said:
ElGranCabeza said:
fighter said:
Wagram said:
psrock said:

They are selling better somewhere not Japan or US i guess.


EMEAA is a huge territory. Honestly Sony hitting the gutter was probably the best thing for them. They are kicking so much ass now. Best 3rd place ever and has an AMAZING category of games on the PS3 now. God the games next year alone could give ya the shakes.


Are you saying 2011 will be the best year of the PS3 ?

Honestly that sounds pretty similar to what was said about 2008/9/10 being the best years of the PS3 (btw when did it, according to you, "hit the gutter" ?).

Are you being ironic or is it really what you think ?

I don't know whether or not you're being sarcastic but Sony shipped more in '09 than they did in '08, they shipped more in '08 than they did in '07, and, if their projection holds, they'll have shipped more in 10 than they did in '09, so when people said the year prior to it happening that "2008/09/10 will the PS3 best year ever", they were right.

Channel Stuffing more likely this year...I mean the gap between the PS3 and 360 in the November NPD was huge

You do realize that NPD is just estimates and they make adjustments to their numbers all the time.  We'll know a lot more come the financial reports at the end of March.

NPD is the most reliable estimate with regards to gaming sales in america. So having that kind of a gap in one of the biggest month in the biggest market of the world suggests that those shipping figures are not that impressive if you consider the numbers of units sold to end users / consumers.



Immortal on 22 December 2010
psrock said:
Immortal said:
psrock said:
Immortal said:

Thanks for the information.

Looking at recent sales via VGC/NPD/MC, I don't think that the PS3 will actually hit its target; EMEAA would have to have astonishing sales for this to be accomplished. By sales, I should think that PS3'll finish around 2.1m or so in Americas for the quarter and 550k or so in Japan. I really don't see EMEAA sales being twice that of Americas in the holiday quarter. On top of that, Move was likely boosting sales at the end of last quarter and substantial shipments to be sold in early next quarter were probably made at that time, reducing shipments from this quarter. I'd therefore expect shipments to be around 5-5.5m rather than 7m. Unless Sony has something massive up its sleeves, I simply don't see how they expect to outsell Wii's March 2010 quarter substantially.

So, Sony who shipped these consoles who just said they are on track to 15 million, but you seem to know better.

No, I do not claim to know better. Based on the data that we have, I merely conclude that I find such a target rather difficult to attain. This is a Sales Discussion forum; if we do not make predictions of our own and simply follow what the hardware manufacturers claim, there is little purpose in discussion.

Also, it's not as if hardware manufacturers are always right; Nintendo expected Wii to ship 26m early on last year and it ended at 20.5m.


The data you have are all sold to consumers which has nothing to do with what we are speaking about. When NPD, MC, vgc release their numbers, it's sold to customers. Sony is talking about shipping to retailers.

It's Dec, we have 3 months to go, they usually change their forcast around now if they believed they were not going to make it. They stood by their expectation.

Did you not read the post you quoted? I took note of the disparity and adjusted shipments down for the quarter as last quarter most likely shipped a substantial amount at the end of the quarter which was to sell this quarter, increasing the sales to shipment ratio of last quarter, but reducing the sales to shipment ratio of this quarter (as there is nothing that would cause a major spur in demand early next year).

Also, manufacturer expectations are not significantly better than those of you or I, even if they decide to stick to them. This may be an attempt to keep investor faith in the product whilst Sony comes up with something to announce that's promising so that investors don't turn away when the expectations are reduced.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

psrock on 22 December 2010
Immortal said:
psrock said:
Immortal said:
psrock said:
Immortal said:

Thanks for the information.

Looking at recent sales via VGC/NPD/MC, I don't think that the PS3 will actually hit its target; EMEAA would have to have astonishing sales for this to be accomplished. By sales, I should think that PS3'll finish around 2.1m or so in Americas for the quarter and 550k or so in Japan. I really don't see EMEAA sales being twice that of Americas in the holiday quarter. On top of that, Move was likely boosting sales at the end of last quarter and substantial shipments to be sold in early next quarter were probably made at that time, reducing shipments from this quarter. I'd therefore expect shipments to be around 5-5.5m rather than 7m. Unless Sony has something massive up its sleeves, I simply don't see how they expect to outsell Wii's March 2010 quarter substantially.

So, Sony who shipped these consoles who just said they are on track to 15 million, but you seem to know better.

No, I do not claim to know better. Based on the data that we have, I merely conclude that I find such a target rather difficult to attain. This is a Sales Discussion forum; if we do not make predictions of our own and simply follow what the hardware manufacturers claim, there is little purpose in discussion.

Also, it's not as if hardware manufacturers are always right; Nintendo expected Wii to ship 26m early on last year and it ended at 20.5m.


The data you have are all sold to consumers which has nothing to do with what we are speaking about. When NPD, MC, vgc release their numbers, it's sold to customers. Sony is talking about shipping to retailers.

It's Dec, we have 3 months to go, they usually change their forcast around now if they believed they were not going to make it. They stood by their expectation.

Did you not read the post you quoted? I took note of the disparity and adjusted shipments down for the quarter as last quarter most likely shipped a substantial amount at the end of the quarter which was to sell this quarter, increasing the sales to shipment ratio of last quarter, but reducing the sales to shipment ratio of this quarter (as there is nothing that would cause a major spur in demand early next year).

Also, manufacturer expectations are not significantly better than those of you or I, even if they decide to stick to them. This may be an attempt to keep investor faith in the product whilst Sony comes up with something to announce that's promising so that investors don't turn away when the expectations are reduced.

Sony executive said Sony's LCD TV sales would likely fall slightly short of a targeted 60 percent rise in unit terms this financial year.

They have no problem saying they won't meet expectation for their products.



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)