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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox360, Wii, PS3, and software

Legend11 on 14 December 2007
Bodhesatva said:
Legend11 said:
naznatips said:
What Bod is doing to make up for that extra year Legend is to compare the 2 most recent months on the basis that those months represent a more relevant data sample.

Also, eugene, the point of him also comparing October was to show that there is a similar relative hardware to software attach rate for the Wii in that month as well BEFORE SMG was released. The ratios of software to hardware remained the same between both months.

I don't think VGChartz's numbers should be used since they include Wii Sports and has also apparently been undertracking 360 game sales based on NPD's numbers. The 360 likely didn't outsell the Wii and PS3 combined last month but we have no idea if that's a fact. Until NPD releases new hardware to software ratios next year it's hard to say with any certainty how well software is selling on the 360 compared to the Wii and PS3.


For the conversation at hand (the one that's spanned the last three pages), I'm not using VGChartz' figures, although that would be okay too, since that also includes bundles of Forza and Marvel Ultimate Alliance. 

The total software ratios come from Microsoft, as a response to the NPD sales (the link can be found in my original post). The NPD does not track Wii Sports, so presumably Microsoft is not including Wii Sports in their totals, either. They had 51 percent marketshare -- according to NPD -- during October, and sold 54 percent of the months' total software.

I AM, however, using VGChartz data for the last four weeks, which have the PS3's Eurpean software figures matching the 360's despite having 1/2 the userbase, and the Wii's total, worldwide software outselling the 360's total, worldwide software, by a handy enough margin to suggest that it's probably true (meaning, even if Ioi has messed up by some significant percentage, the Wii would still be ahead). That's another argument, however, that no one seems to be contesting.

All in all, I made four separate points, each to provide evidence that the PS3 and Wii's software really aren't that far behind the 360's. I absolutely agree that none should be taken as conclusive proof, it's a discussion, and I think there's room for counter point. For example, many of the early months of this year (all the way through at least June) have the 360 very, VERY heavily outselling the Wii and PS3's combined software totals, but it also had upwards of 75 percent marketshare in the earliest parts of the year, so it's really hard to tell what reasonable software sales would be at those times. The whole picture's distorted. 

Now that we're reaching reasonably comparable levels of hardware sales in the Americas... we are also reaching reasonably comparable levels of software sales in America. By the count of both NPD and VGChartz. In the Christmas season, the busiest software period of the year, no less. That's the point I'm making here, and it isn't really intended to be a chide against the 360, just a chide against unrealistic, gargantuan expectations of software sales on the system. It's not outselling PS3 or Wii software 2:1 or anything.  


http://www.joystiq.com/2007/10/31/360-leads-hardware-to-software-ratio-wii-and-ps3-trail-with-sim/



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--OkeyDokey-- on 14 December 2007

woah, im staying out of this.



Bodhesatva on 14 December 2007
Legend11 said:
Bodhesatva said:
Legend11 said:
naznatips said:
What Bod is doing to make up for that extra year Legend is to compare the 2 most recent months on the basis that those months represent a more relevant data sample.

Also, eugene, the point of him also comparing October was to show that there is a similar relative hardware to software attach rate for the Wii in that month as well BEFORE SMG was released. The ratios of software to hardware remained the same between both months.

I don't think VGChartz's numbers should be used since they include Wii Sports and has also apparently been undertracking 360 game sales based on NPD's numbers. The 360 likely didn't outsell the Wii and PS3 combined last month but we have no idea if that's a fact. Until NPD releases new hardware to software ratios next year it's hard to say with any certainty how well software is selling on the 360 compared to the Wii and PS3.


For the conversation at hand (the one that's spanned the last three pages), I'm not using VGChartz' figures, although that would be okay too, since that also includes bundles of Forza and Marvel Ultimate Alliance. 

The total software ratios come from Microsoft, as a response to the NPD sales (the link can be found in my original post). The NPD does not track Wii Sports, so presumably Microsoft is not including Wii Sports in their totals, either. They had 51 percent marketshare -- according to NPD -- during October, and sold 54 percent of the months' total software.

I AM, however, using VGChartz data for the last four weeks, which have the PS3's Eurpean software figures matching the 360's despite having 1/2 the userbase, and the Wii's total, worldwide software outselling the 360's total, worldwide software, by a handy enough margin to suggest that it's probably true (meaning, even if Ioi has messed up by some significant percentage, the Wii would still be ahead). That's another argument, however, that no one seems to be contesting.

All in all, I made four separate points, each to provide evidence that the PS3 and Wii's software really aren't that far behind the 360's. I absolutely agree that none should be taken as conclusive proof, it's a discussion, and I think there's room for counter point. For example, many of the early months of this year (all the way through at least June) have the 360 very, VERY heavily outselling the Wii and PS3's combined software totals, but it also had upwards of 75 percent marketshare in the earliest parts of the year, so it's really hard to tell what reasonable software sales would be at those times. The whole picture's distorted. 

Now that we're reaching reasonably comparable levels of hardware sales in the Americas... we are also reaching reasonably comparable levels of software sales in America. By the count of both NPD and VGChartz. In the Christmas season, the busiest software period of the year, no less. That's the point I'm making here, and it isn't really intended to be a chide against the 360, just a chide against unrealistic, gargantuan expectations of software sales on the system. It's not outselling PS3 or Wii software 2:1 or anything.  


http://www.joystiq.com/2007/10/31/360-leads-hardware-to-software-ratio-wii-and-ps3-trail-with-sim/


Which doesn't take a system's lifespan into account at all. As others have said, having a higher attach ratio isn't just a function of how super awesome the 360 fanbase is (although it is), it's also a function of having been out twice as long. 

The fact remains that the 360's software market share, even by Microsoft's own press releases, has barely outstripped its hardware marketshare in the last couple of months in America. That's a very good sign, no one is contesting that, but it's not monstrous disproportionate. 

Let me put this in context for you, because you have linked a post that does not refute what I'm saying: to outsell PS3 or Wii software 2:1 compared to hardware marketshare, the 360 would literally need to about 6x more software than the PS3 and about 3x as much software as the Wii. So, for example, Assassins' Creed actually sold better on the PS3 than it did on the 360, relative to userbase, in America (and much better in Europe, according to both Chart Track and VGChartz). To actually outsell the PS3 version 2:1, the figures would have to look something like this:

Xbox360 Assassins Creed: 1.5 million

PS3 Assassin's Creed:  .25 million

Or, more generally, sell 6x as much software, because the PS3 has 1/3 the userbase (and thus SHOULD get 1/3 the sales). But that isn't even coming close to happening.  



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Sqrl on 14 December 2007
Legend11 said:
naznatips said:
What Bod is doing to make up for that extra year Legend is to compare the 2 most recent months on the basis that those months represent a more relevant data sample.

Also, eugene, the point of him also comparing October was to show that there is a similar relative hardware to software attach rate for the Wii in that month as well BEFORE SMG was released. The ratios of software to hardware remained the same between both months.

I don't think VGChartz's numbers should be used since they include Wii Sports and has also apparently been undertracking 360 game sales based on NPD's numbers. The 360 likely didn't outsell the Wii and PS3 combined last month but we have no idea if that's a fact. Until NPD releases new hardware to software ratios next year it's hard to say with any certainty how well software is selling on the 360 compared to the Wii and PS3.

 

First: Bod has said explicitly that the original analysis didn't include it to keep the comparison valid amongst the NPD analysis which didn't include it either.

Second: Including Wii sports is more accurate than not including it. 

The data in Japan shows that more than 50% of Wii owners would have purchased the title had it not been bundled.  Removing it from the numbers lowers accuracy.

In any case this thread doesn't need another discussion derailing it.

 

@topic,

Fantastic analysis Bod, definitely clears away some of the FUD out there and keeps in perspective the full scope of the situation.  I think the majority of people will read the original post and grasp the concept fairly well so don't worry about the eugene discussion detracting, pretty much everything that needed to be said was said in the OP.

I will say it is a bit ironic how Wii supporters are accused of mucking about in other threads and here the Wii supporters have clearly gone out of the way to be helpful.  Definitely sets a great example.


 
To Each Man, Responsibility
Legend11 on 14 December 2007
Bodhesatva said:
Legend11 said:
Bodhesatva said:
Legend11 said:
naznatips said:
What Bod is doing to make up for that extra year Legend is to compare the 2 most recent months on the basis that those months represent a more relevant data sample.

Also, eugene, the point of him also comparing October was to show that there is a similar relative hardware to software attach rate for the Wii in that month as well BEFORE SMG was released. The ratios of software to hardware remained the same between both months.

I don't think VGChartz's numbers should be used since they include Wii Sports and has also apparently been undertracking 360 game sales based on NPD's numbers. The 360 likely didn't outsell the Wii and PS3 combined last month but we have no idea if that's a fact. Until NPD releases new hardware to software ratios next year it's hard to say with any certainty how well software is selling on the 360 compared to the Wii and PS3.


For the conversation at hand (the one that's spanned the last three pages), I'm not using VGChartz' figures, although that would be okay too, since that also includes bundles of Forza and Marvel Ultimate Alliance. 

The total software ratios come from Microsoft, as a response to the NPD sales (the link can be found in my original post). The NPD does not track Wii Sports, so presumably Microsoft is not including Wii Sports in their totals, either. They had 51 percent marketshare -- according to NPD -- during October, and sold 54 percent of the months' total software.

I AM, however, using VGChartz data for the last four weeks, which have the PS3's Eurpean software figures matching the 360's despite having 1/2 the userbase, and the Wii's total, worldwide software outselling the 360's total, worldwide software, by a handy enough margin to suggest that it's probably true (meaning, even if Ioi has messed up by some significant percentage, the Wii would still be ahead). That's another argument, however, that no one seems to be contesting.

All in all, I made four separate points, each to provide evidence that the PS3 and Wii's software really aren't that far behind the 360's. I absolutely agree that none should be taken as conclusive proof, it's a discussion, and I think there's room for counter point. For example, many of the early months of this year (all the way through at least June) have the 360 very, VERY heavily outselling the Wii and PS3's combined software totals, but it also had upwards of 75 percent marketshare in the earliest parts of the year, so it's really hard to tell what reasonable software sales would be at those times. The whole picture's distorted. 

Now that we're reaching reasonably comparable levels of hardware sales in the Americas... we are also reaching reasonably comparable levels of software sales in America. By the count of both NPD and VGChartz. In the Christmas season, the busiest software period of the year, no less. That's the point I'm making here, and it isn't really intended to be a chide against the 360, just a chide against unrealistic, gargantuan expectations of software sales on the system. It's not outselling PS3 or Wii software 2:1 or anything.  


http://www.joystiq.com/2007/10/31/360-leads-hardware-to-software-ratio-wii-and-ps3-trail-with-sim/


Which doesn't take a system's lifespan into account at all. As others have said, having a higher attach ratio isn't just a function of how super awesome the 360 fanbase is (although it is), it's also a function of having been out twice as long. 

The fact remains that the 360's software market share, even by Microsoft's own press releases, has barely outstripped its hardware marketshare in the last couple of months in America. That's a very good sign, no one is contesting that, but it's not monstrous disproportionate. 

Let me put this in context for you, because you have linked a post that does not refute what I'm saying: to outsell PS3 or Wii software 2:1 compared to hardware marketshare, the 360 would literally need to about 6x more software than the PS3 and about 3x as much software as the Wii. So, for example, Assassins' Creed actually sold better on the PS3 than it did on the 360, relative to userbase, in America (and much better in Europe, according to both Chart Track and VGChartz). To actually outsell the PS3 version 2:1, the figures would have to look something like this:

Xbox360 Assassins Creed: 1.5 million

PS3 Assassin's Creed:  .25 million

Or, more generally, sell 6x as much software, because the PS3 has 1/3 the userbase (and thus SHOULD get 1/3 the sales). But that isn't even coming close to happening.  


You can't just compare 2 games like that without taking into consideration all the other games that have been released for each system.  For example the PS3 didn't have the equivalent of a Halo 3 taking up 6 million sales.  Also taking the last 2 or 3 months of the year is like cherry picking numbers.  For all we know Wii owners may be more inclined to buy the majority of their games during the Christmas season as opposed to 360 owners.



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famousringo on 14 December 2007

Here's the thing, eugene, attach rates have absolutely nothing to do with this!

Attach rate is total units of software divided by total units of hardware.

What Bod is talking about is the ratio of monthly software marketshare to total userbase marketshare. This is a very different number.

His hypothesis basically states that this number will be close to 1 for all platforms. He notes that 360 will be slightly above 1, while Wii will be slightly lower, reflecting a small advantage in software sales, while remaining pretty close overall. The point is that software sales can be directly linked to the size of the userbase.

I'm not sure where Naz got those numbers, but I'm going to take the software totals and match them up with the hardware marketshare for North America which is listed on VGchartz's main page. I don't have PS3 software numbers, so I'll pretend the Wii and 360 are the only consoles on the market. It shouldn't affect the result much.

Looking at these software numbers, I calculate that Wii has 41.1% of all software sold this month, so that leaves 58.9% for the 360. Using the front page, I see the Wii has 43.5% of the userbase, leaving 56.5% for the 360. Hm, once again, 360's software marketshare for the month is just a couple percentage points higher than it's userbase, while the Wii's is just a couple lower. Looks like a pattern.

Monthly Software to Userbase Marketshare Ratio for November:
X360 - 1.04
Wii - 0.95

Monthly Software to Userbase Marketshare Ratio for October, based on Bod's OP:
X360 - 1.06
PS3 - 1.07
Wii - 0.88

They might look even closer if I had PS3 software numbers, but with these tough numbers, Bod's theory holds up. Note that the ratio is within about 20% for all consoles. As the install base marketshare of one console or another shifts, expect software market share to adjust similarly. Bod's point is that 360's install base marketshare is shrinking, and so its software marketshare will also shrink with it.



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shrimpy_boy11 on 14 December 2007

wow.. i read bod's first post then had to go..... and now there's 3 pages of utter chaos.

well im gonna stay out of this, you guys play nice and STAY ON TOPIC lol :P



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Bodhesatva on 14 December 2007
Legend11 said:
Bodhesatva said:
Legend11 said:
Bodhesatva said:
Legend11 said:
naznatips said:
What Bod is doing to make up for that extra year Legend is to compare the 2 most recent months on the basis that those months represent a more relevant data sample.

Also, eugene, the point of him also comparing October was to show that there is a similar relative hardware to software attach rate for the Wii in that month as well BEFORE SMG was released. The ratios of software to hardware remained the same between both months.

I don't think VGChartz's numbers should be used since they include Wii Sports and has also apparently been undertracking 360 game sales based on NPD's numbers. The 360 likely didn't outsell the Wii and PS3 combined last month but we have no idea if that's a fact. Until NPD releases new hardware to software ratios next year it's hard to say with any certainty how well software is selling on the 360 compared to the Wii and PS3.


For the conversation at hand (the one that's spanned the last three pages), I'm not using VGChartz' figures, although that would be okay too, since that also includes bundles of Forza and Marvel Ultimate Alliance. 

The total software ratios come from Microsoft, as a response to the NPD sales (the link can be found in my original post). The NPD does not track Wii Sports, so presumably Microsoft is not including Wii Sports in their totals, either. They had 51 percent marketshare -- according to NPD -- during October, and sold 54 percent of the months' total software.

I AM, however, using VGChartz data for the last four weeks, which have the PS3's Eurpean software figures matching the 360's despite having 1/2 the userbase, and the Wii's total, worldwide software outselling the 360's total, worldwide software, by a handy enough margin to suggest that it's probably true (meaning, even if Ioi has messed up by some significant percentage, the Wii would still be ahead). That's another argument, however, that no one seems to be contesting.

All in all, I made four separate points, each to provide evidence that the PS3 and Wii's software really aren't that far behind the 360's. I absolutely agree that none should be taken as conclusive proof, it's a discussion, and I think there's room for counter point. For example, many of the early months of this year (all the way through at least June) have the 360 very, VERY heavily outselling the Wii and PS3's combined software totals, but it also had upwards of 75 percent marketshare in the earliest parts of the year, so it's really hard to tell what reasonable software sales would be at those times. The whole picture's distorted. 

Now that we're reaching reasonably comparable levels of hardware sales in the Americas... we are also reaching reasonably comparable levels of software sales in America. By the count of both NPD and VGChartz. In the Christmas season, the busiest software period of the year, no less. That's the point I'm making here, and it isn't really intended to be a chide against the 360, just a chide against unrealistic, gargantuan expectations of software sales on the system. It's not outselling PS3 or Wii software 2:1 or anything.  


http://www.joystiq.com/2007/10/31/360-leads-hardware-to-software-ratio-wii-and-ps3-trail-with-sim/


Which doesn't take a system's lifespan into account at all. As others have said, having a higher attach ratio isn't just a function of how super awesome the 360 fanbase is (although it is), it's also a function of having been out twice as long. 

The fact remains that the 360's software market share, even by Microsoft's own press releases, has barely outstripped its hardware marketshare in the last couple of months in America. That's a very good sign, no one is contesting that, but it's not monstrous disproportionate. 

Let me put this in context for you, because you have linked a post that does not refute what I'm saying: to outsell PS3 or Wii software 2:1 compared to hardware marketshare, the 360 would literally need to about 6x more software than the PS3 and about 3x as much software as the Wii. So, for example, Assassins' Creed actually sold better on the PS3 than it did on the 360, relative to userbase, in America (and much better in Europe, according to both Chart Track and VGChartz). To actually outsell the PS3 version 2:1, the figures would have to look something like this:

Xbox360 Assassins Creed: 1.5 million

PS3 Assassin's Creed:  .25 million

Or, more generally, sell 6x as much software, because the PS3 has 1/3 the userbase (and thus SHOULD get 1/3 the sales). But that isn't even coming close to happening.  


You can't just compare 2 games like that without taking into consideration all the other games that have been released for each system.  For example the PS3 didn't have the equivalent of a Halo 3 taking up 6 million sales.  Also taking the last 2 or 3 months of the year is like cherry picking numbers.  For all we know Wii owners may be more inclined to buy the majority of their games during the Christmas season as opposed to 360 owners.


 That's entirely possible, but it's not Cherry Picking. As I said, the numbers from early in the year (say, June) are incredibly disproportionate, as the 360 not only had a library that naturally expands in its second year, but also something like 66-75 percent total market share. It absolutely dominated software sales then, but it's really hard to decipher how much of that is due to having such a rabid fanbase and how much is due to the fact that hardware figures were so lopsided in its favor.

The last two months (and three more weeks I might add -- I've included the last VGChartz figures in my analysis, which have the Wii ahead worldwide in software sales) are not only the most important months of the year (with December) in terms of software sales, but are really the first time that we've begun to approach reasonable similar hardware sales figures. Now that the consoles are getting closer in total hardware sales figures... the software sales figures are also getting much closer. Totally agree, its not conclusive.

But if you want to see what really dominant software sales figures look like -- the sort of 2:1 advantage we've been talking about -- it's actually happening right now, in Europe, except AGAINST the 360, not FOR. The PS3's software totals in Europe have practically matched those of the 360 in the last few weeks, despite having 1/2 the user base: that is a 2:1 sales advantage, relative to userbase. Similarly, the Wii's software totals are about 1.8:1, even though the hardware totals are virtually identical.

Now, I don't expect those totals to hold up long at all. That's not what I'm suggesting. I'm just pointing out, instead, just how much closer we actually are to parity here in America. The 360 is selling +3-5 percent relative to its install base for the last 2+ months running here. Could be an anomoly, just like Europe now, but I'd argue it's a non-negligible period of time at the most important period of the year.  



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Bodhesatva on 14 December 2007
Ugh, I'm getting awful double post lag. In any case, excellent additional analysis Famousringo, thank you. 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Sqrl on 14 December 2007

@famousringo,

Something else you highlighted for me was the difference between Bod's analysis and Legend's. Neither is inherently better or worse they are just focusing on different things.

Legend's LTD attach ratio comparison is focusing on the overall life of the console where as Bod's monthly market share analysis is focusing more on the recent trends. Both are important, they just show different aspects of the market.

I personally think Bod's is the more interesting analysis because it will assist in highlighting developing trends and has more future implications. But again thats just a preference.
To Each Man, Responsibility