Xbox360, Wii, PS3, and software

[famousringo]

Here's the thing, eugene, attach rates have absolutely nothing to do with this!

Attach rate is total units of software divided by total units of hardware.

What Bod is talking about is the ratio of monthly software marketshare to total userbase marketshare. This is a very different number.

His hypothesis basically states that this number will be close to 1 for all platforms. He notes that 360 will be slightly above 1, while Wii will be slightly lower, reflecting a small advantage in software sales, while remaining pretty close overall. The point is that software sales can be directly linked to the size of the userbase.

I'm not sure where Naz got those numbers, but I'm going to take the software totals and match them up with the hardware marketshare for North America which is listed on VGchartz's main page. I don't have PS3 software numbers, so I'll pretend the Wii and 360 are the only consoles on the market. It shouldn't affect the result much.

Looking at these software numbers, I calculate that Wii has 41.1% of all software sold this month, so that leaves 58.9% for the 360. Using the front page, I see the Wii has 43.5% of the userbase, leaving 56.5% for the 360. Hm, once again, 360's software marketshare for the month is just a couple percentage points higher than it's userbase, while the Wii's is just a couple lower. Looks like a pattern.

Monthly Software to Userbase Marketshare Ratio for November:
X360 - 1.04
Wii - 0.95

Monthly Software to Userbase Marketshare Ratio for October, based on Bod's OP:
X360 - 1.06
PS3 - 1.07
Wii - 0.88

They might look even closer if I had PS3 software numbers, but with these tough numbers, Bod's theory holds up. Note that the ratio is within about 20% for all consoles. As the install base marketshare of one console or another shifts, expect software market share to adjust similarly. Bod's point is that 360's install base marketshare is shrinking, and so its software marketshare will also shrink with it.