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Forums - Sales - Xbox360, Wii, PS3, and software

eugene on 14 December 2007
naznatips said:

Bodhesatva's points, broken down individually:

The 360 has more software market share than hardware market share by a small amount (3%-5%). The 360 has the most hardware sold in North America. These two things combined mean the 360 is the best software mover in North America at the moment. With me so far?

The PS3 and Wii hardware sales have now given them over 50% of the hardware in North America. This means that combined the Playstation 3 and Wii represent a little over half of the hardware sold in the continent. Before this month though the Wii and Playstation 3 represented both less than 50% of the hardware and less than 50% of the software. Now that they represent more than 50% of the hardware they are also representing more than 50% of the software.

What this implies is that while the 360 has a software weekly attach rate advantage over both the Playstation 3 and Wii, it's not as large an advantage as some seem to believe. This implies that when a platform (the Wii for example) passes the 360 in hardware sales by 10% or more in North America, it will also pass it in software sales in North America.

It's also notable that in worldwide sales, the Wii (without a huge hardware advantage) sells far more software each week than the Xbox 360 for the last 4 weeks.

Now that that's been resolved, your complaint is that Super Mario Galaxy artificially inflates these numbers, but every time a game is released software sales are raised, and since the Xbox 360 got 2 releases (CoD4 and Assassin's Creed) which combined had a much larger individual attach rate than SMG, it's clear that a November software comparison is in no way biased towards the Wii's single major release when the 360 had at least 2, and 3 if you count Mass Effect. One of those titles was even out a week longer!

 


I keep hearing about the Wiis 4 weeks of greatness. Thats exactly my point. Nothing can be conclusive cause the sampling is too small. We cant generalize anything from these facts except that the Wii had a great month. Which as Ive stated many times, can happen to any system with a big game release. Im saying a year over analysis is more accurate. What a system did or didnt do in a single month is irrelevant to come to any conclusion.



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tokilamockingbrd on 14 December 2007

^ Wiis had a great year.... so no it is not a small sampling


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Rubang B on 14 December 2007

You discount budget games or efficiently bundled games? You can't blame Nintendo for making a $10 game. Hell, you should count Wii Sports, even though it comes with a free Wii.

But these ratios won't matter next Christmas, when the fight for 2nd place really heats up (like my vegan sausages are about to).



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naznatips on 14 December 2007

What Bod is doing to make up for that extra year Legend is to compare the 2 most recent months on the basis that those months represent a more relevant data sample.

Also, eugene, the point of him also comparing October was to show that there is a similar hardware to software attach rate for the Wii in that month as well BEFORE SMG was released. The ratios of software to hardware remained the same between both months.



Gnizmo on 14 December 2007
eugene said:
naznatips said:

Bodhesatva's points, broken down individually:

The 360 has more software market share than hardware market share by a small amount (3%-5%). The 360 has the most hardware sold in North America. These two things combined mean the 360 is the best software mover in North America at the moment. With me so far?

The PS3 and Wii hardware sales have now given them over 50% of the hardware in North America. This means that combined the Playstation 3 and Wii represent a little over half of the hardware sold in the continent. Before this month though the Wii and Playstation 3 represented both less than 50% of the hardware and less than 50% of the software. Now that they represent more than 50% of the hardware they are also representing more than 50% of the software.

What this implies is that while the 360 has a software weekly attach rate advantage over both the Playstation 3 and Wii, it's not as large an advantage as some seem to believe. This implies that when a platform (the Wii for example) passes the 360 in hardware sales by 10% or more in North America, it will also pass it in software sales in North America.

It's also notable that in worldwide sales, the Wii (without a huge hardware advantage) sells far more software each week than the Xbox 360 for the last 4 weeks.

Now that that's been resolved, your complaint is that Super Mario Galaxy artificially inflates these numbers, but every time a game is released software sales are raised, and since the Xbox 360 got 2 releases (CoD4 and Assassin's Creed) which combined had a much larger individual attach rate than SMG, it's clear that a November software comparison is in no way biased towards the Wii's single major release when the 360 had at least 2, and 3 if you count Mass Effect. One of those titles was even out a week longer!

 


I keep hearing about the Wiis 4 weeks of greatness. Thats exactly my point. Nothing can be conclusive cause the sampling is too small. We cant generalize anything from these facts except that the Wii had a great month. Which as Ive stated many times, can happen to any system with a big game release. Im saying a year over analysis is more accurate. What a system did or didnt do in a single month is irrelevant to come to any conclusion.


 Let me restate that simply: in October, the Xbox360 had approximately 51 percent hardware marketshare in America, and sold approximately 54 percent of the software. The Wii had approximately 34 percent market share, and sold approximately 30 percent of the games; the PS3 had approximately 15 percent market share, and sold approximately 16 percent of the games. Again, that certainly favors the 360, but not in some overwhelming fashion, where the 360 is some software beast and the Wii/PS3 are totally incapable of moving hardware. It's a slight bias. What big games were there released for the Wii in October?



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eugene on 14 December 2007
naznatips said:
What Bod is doing to make up for that extra year Legend is to compare the 2 most recent months on the basis that those months represent a more relevant data sample.

Also, eugene, the point of him also comparing October was to show that there is a similar relative hardware to software attach rate for the Wii in that month as well BEFORE SMG was released. The ratios of software to hardware remained the same between both months.

I dont think he made that point as much as he pointed out that the 360 lost software marketshare for a single month. Show me where the software attach rates for the Wii are the same for October and November. I know it isnt.



Gnizmo on 14 December 2007

Read my post directly above yours Eugene. That is the arguement right there, completely self-contained, and shamelessly ripped straight from the original post with a couple lines added at the end.



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eugene on 14 December 2007

I said for November. Show that the Wii's attachrate was the same in October and November. I bet anything it was much much higher in November



naznatips on 14 December 2007
eugene said:
naznatips said:
What Bod is doing to make up for that extra year Legend is to compare the 2 most recent months on the basis that those months represent a more relevant data sample.

Also, eugene, the point of him also comparing October was to show that there is a similar relative hardware to software attach rate for the Wii in that month as well BEFORE SMG was released. The ratios of software to hardware remained the same between both months.

I dont think he made that point as much as he pointed out that the 360 lost software marketshare for a single month. Show me where the software attach rates for the Wii are the same for October and November. I know it isnt.


Okay eugene I'm going to try and do this slowly for you:

360 hardware in October is a little over 50%. 360 software in October is a little over 50%. Wii and PS3 hardware in October is a little under 50%. Wii and PS3 software in October is a little under 50%.

360 hardware in November is a little under 50%. 360 software in November is a little under 50%. Wii and PS3 hardware in October is a little over 50%. Wii and PS3 software in October is a little over 50%.

I'm going to go through the math in a very simple way for you. The ratios were relatively equal for both the 360 and Wii and PS3 between both months. When the 360 was a little over 50% in hardware, they were a little over in software as well. When the 360 was a little under 50% in hardware, they were a little under in software as well.

If the relative ratio between all 3 systems was constant between both months than SMG had no signifficant effect on Bod's comparison that was not canceled out by the 360's own major software.



Gnizmo on 14 December 2007

 

Eugene said:

I said for November. Show that the Wii's attachrate was the same in October and November. I bet anything it was much much higher in November

 What does that have to do with anything? How is that relevant at all? November isn't needed for the arguement. The arguement has nothing to do with the attach rate of November versus the attach rate of October.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229