EMEAA: 600k Americas: 550k Japan: 60k

FW: 1.21 million

LT: 5.0-5.2 million

A bit early, aren't we? Why doesn't somebody create a topic with metacritic predictions?

Anyway:

The Uncharted frachise got HUGE, to the point where it rivals God of War's succcess. That's why my predictions are so high:

EMEAA: 600k

'mericas: 800k

Japan: 65k? (dunno how popular Uncharted is in Japan)

WW first week: 1.7 million.

Lifetime: 5.3 million (Uncharted is at 4 million now. I could realistically see it selling that high through the success of the previous titles. Heck, it could be even higher, but I think the first talks over the PS4 will stop it from selling much more.)

600k Americas, 500 k emeaa, 60k japan. 1.16 at launch. At least 5 million after a year and a half. may rest at 5.5 million total. Possibly boosted by uncharted trilogy release.(which is inevitable imo)

Actually, I've been wonder if Uncharted 2 can reach Gears levels one day myself.

To compare the game to the original Gears of War, here are their sales at the 10 week and 60th week marks (ie, the week prior to U2's heavy BF bundling):

U2 W10 - 2346k
U2 1Y - 4055k (will be higher once we get NA numbers)

GeoW W10 - 3275k
GeoW 1Y - 4754k

So Gears had a lead of around 930k as of that initial 10 week launch period, but Uncharted 2 managed to sell better over the following year, bringing that lead down to somewhere under 699k (we still need the rest of this weeks numbers).  During its 60th week, Gears sold 47k or so, but that was Christmas week.  We still don't have Uncharted 2's full 60th week figures, but the EMEAA figures alone put it at 38k, so its probably going to be higher than that.  For the same calendar week as Uncharted 2 (week ending December 1st 2007), Gears had only sold 34k worldwide.

So this implies a much stronger opening for Gears, but somewhat better legs for Uncharted 2.

I've always thought the game would die of a bit north of 5 million, but lately I've been thinking it can leg it out to 5.5 million or so.  A bit shy of Gears numbers, but still in that ballpark.

6.5 million lifetime

Why does everyone think PS4 talk will be about? lol

everyone needs to remember something here. 

This Generation isnt over.. its not even close... at all

Sony PS1 lasted 5 years then PS2 comes out.. PS1 manages to live on for 10 years and then died. PS2 lived for 6 years then the PS3 came out, still the PS2 is doing well and could last 11 year. 

NOW the PS3 has a 10 year plan.. 10 years, not 5 then PS4, 10 Years of PS3 as Sonys Home system. PS4 talk may be about but its not happening. in 2015 PS4 talk will begin and then 2016 it may come out. 

The PS3 is still expensive to develop for

SONY have only just started making money on it. they still have 4bil to make back yet.

The full power of the PS3 sill has not been seen.

WHY WHY WHY would people think a PS4 is close. 

If Kinect takes off then Microsoft has there new system for 5 years and can keep the 360 strong under Kinect. 

Sony put alot of money into the PS3 LONG TERM. the PS4 is NOT comeing in 2012/13 

sorry this seems like an attack on you i have just seen alot of people talk about the PS4 on here recently reffering it to 2012ish lol 

i may start a thread on this

1.3 first week WW

6 million lifetime.

compared to uncharted 2-850k first week WW and 5 million lifetime.

They announced the game much better, with a entertainment weekly mag piece, vga trailer AND a jimmy fallon segment all in the same week therefore it seems they are marketing it much smarter, there will be a much larger userbase by the time it launches. 

if i remember uncharted 2 launched on 35 million(??) userbase, uncharted 3 will launch with a userbase close to 50 million.

FW: 1.1 million
LT: 5.1 million

Disadvantages for Uncharted 3

Uncharted 2 competed with MW2, AC2, and Batman when it launched. Uncharted 3 competes with MW3, AC:R, Batman: AA, Battlefield 3 (which will be bigger than BC2) and Skyrim (which will be bigger than Oblivion) when it launches.

It'll probably get a lower meta than U2. I see it getting a 91. No matter how good it is, it will NOT be as ground breaking as U2.

There is a 97% chance that Uncharted 3 will NOT be the GOTY champ this year. GOTY champs are typically New IPs (LittleBigPlanet, RDR), or surprise sequels (Uncharted 2, Mass Effect 2). This usually the rule. A game has to have freshness either by being a new IP, a surprisingly good sequel, or a long awaited sequel like Skyrim (It's beem 5 years right). So yeah, most of the GOTY awards will probably go to Skyrim or LA Noire or something surprising like Deus Ex. I say U3 has a 3 % chance of being the GOTY champ this year.
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Because of the lesser GOTY awards, it won't get that boast around Dec/Jan that U2 got.

I also don't think it'll blow us away visually like Uncharted2. It's going to have some hefty competition from Battlefield 3 and Gears of War 3. Even if it does look better than those two games, it won't be anywhere near the discrepancy that Uncharted 2 had with it's nearest visual challenger (what was it? AC2), espescially considering the introduction of color to the Gears of War series. It will be interesting, no doubt.

It will not release near a $100 price cut like U2.


Advantages for Uncharted 3

Multiplayer. U2's mp was good but wasn't the best on ps3. ND said themselves that they ran out of time with mp for U2. They said they're going after COD this time and they've showed some pretty impressive gameplay so far. They're bringing the cinematics from the sp to the mp and adding new modes like 3 - team deathmatch. Also add in customization. You can tell ND has put a lot of work on the mp this time. This is where that 3% for GOTY Comes in.

I've also seen subtle improve like how the crosshairs separate entirely when shooting unlike in U2 when just the outer lines would disperse.

Solid Snake will make an appearance. This could potential attracted a few hundred-thousand MGS fans

Split Screen. It could impact sales a lot like with RE:5, or not like Killzone 3.


With all that said, the game will be great and I'll most likely enjoy it even more than U2.

First Week: A little over a million units
Lifetime: A Little over five-million units

Well, I dunno about first week, but I see it as 1.5-2mil

Now, if UC2 will get to 5 mil before UC3, I see the following:

No notable "major* improvemnts - 5.5 mil

Split Screen Multiplayer Coop - another 1-2 mil

If the game is released next to another price cut - 1 mil

You should compare Gears to Uncharted 1.