By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Greenburg tweets an Nov NPD tease ...

RAZurrection said:
Kasz216 said:

Except for, you know... people like the Guiness book of world records, all newspapers, news stations...

Also, the data isn't anymore made up then NPDs.


If that were the case, I think VGChartz would be recognised as the most accurate videogame tracker in the world, rather than being loled at by company heads and adjusting their sales data by the millions on a whim.

Uh... have you seen Mediacrate and Famitsu in Japan?

They're both trackers in japan with about equal market coverage... and well... just study them.

I'd suggest learning about what it is that NPD, Famitsu, Mediacrate and people like VGchartz do.  (PS.  NPD makes adjustments too.)



Around the Network
Kasz216 said:

Uh... have you seen Mediacrate and Famitsu in Japan?

They're both trackers in japan with about equal market coverage... and well... just study them.

Yes and the fact that both seperate entities usually come within similar results of each other consisitantly, weekly and over a number of years gives us an "acceptable" margin of error for their estimates is why they're both considered the best source if averaged out. Compare that to VGC who basically just guesses for the month, then either leaves it as it is if correct. or alters it drastically depending on how innaccurate it is, which just invalidates their methods. 

 

Who's going to trust a company that says:

"Ok this is our method and it's very accurate"

*adjusts 2 million*

"Ok, we were wrong before, but we're 100% correct now."

How can you take that on a basis of faith when if they didn't know they were wrong before, how do they know they are not wrong now.

If VGC really wanted to earn credibility, there's a couple of ways:

1) Predict Japans figures before MC/Famitsu provide them, rather than wait until they're out, copy them and fudge 3% up or down to make them seem different.

2) Take an item - say, Kinect (which is good because MS is all about sold to consumer data for this) track it for the rest of the holiday on a weekly basis. MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS WHATSOEVER. When the next press release comes out if you're within 100,000 for the total at the period the PR covers, you're ok.

Kasz216 said:

I'd suggest learning about what it is that NPD, Famitsu, Mediacrate and people like VGchartz do.  (PS.  NPD makes adjustments too.)

Have they ever made adjustments to fall in line with "shipment" data? I can't ever recall NPD issuing a press release saying they needed to alter past data to corrolate with a companys quarterly reports.



RAZurrection said:
Kasz216 said:

Uh... have you seen Mediacrate and Famitsu in Japan?

They're both trackers in japan with about equal market coverage... and well... just study them.

Yes and the fact that both seperate entities usually come within similar results of each other consisitantly, weekly and over a number of years gives us an "acceptable" margin of error for their estimates is why they're both considered the best source if averaged out. Compare that to VGC who basically just guesses for the month, then either leaves it as it is if correct. or alters it drastically depending on how innaccurate it is, which just invalidates their methods. 

Kasz216 said:

I'd suggest learning about what it is that NPD, Famitsu, Mediacrate and people like VGchartz do.  (PS.  NPD makes adjustments too.)

Have they ever made adjustments to fall in line with "shipment" data? I can't ever recall NPD issuing a press release saying they needed to alter past data to corrolate with a companys quarterly reports.

That's because they track the states. Far far easier than the middle east and hard to track parts of Europe.



 

Does VGchartz even claim to be as accurate as NPD? I'm pretty sure they don't, it doesn't mean they make up numbers, it just means they're missing some valuable data. 



RAZurrection said:
Kasz216 said:

Uh... have you seen Mediacrate and Famitsu in Japan?

They're both trackers in japan with about equal market coverage... and well... just study them.

Yes and the fact that both seperate entities usually come within similar results of each other consisitantly, weekly and over a number of years gives us an "acceptable" margin of error for their estimates is why they're both considered the best source if averaged out. Compare that to VGC who basically just guesses for the month, then either leaves it as it is if correct. or alters it drastically depending on how innaccurate it is, which just invalidates their methods. 

 

Who's going to trust a company that says:

"Ok this is our method and it's very accurate"

*adjusts 2 million*

"Ok, we were wrong before, but we're 100% correct now."

How can you take that on a basis of faith when if they didn't know they were wrong before, how do they know they are not wrong now.

If VGC really wanted to earn credibility, there's a couple of ways:

1) Predict Japans figures before MC/Famitsu provide them, rather than wait until they're out, copy them and fudge 3% up or down to make them seem different.

2) Take an item - say, Kinect (which is good because MS is all about sold to consumer data for this) track it for the rest of the holiday on a weekly basis. MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS WHATSOEVER. When the next press release comes out if you're within 100,000 for the total at the period the PR covers, you're ok.

Kasz216 said:

I'd suggest learning about what it is that NPD, Famitsu, Mediacrate and people like VGchartz do.  (PS.  NPD makes adjustments too.)

Have they ever made adjustments to fall in line with "shipment" data? I can't ever recall NPD issuing a press release saying they needed to alter past data to corrolate with a companys quarterly reports.

That's because they don't issue releases when they do it.  Note that their totals never match up with their montly totals.



Around the Network
Edouble24 said:

Does VGchartz even claim to be as accurate as NPD? I'm pretty sure they don't, it doesn't mean they make up numbers, it just means they're missing some valuable data. 


No.  It actually is within a pretty similar margin of error though.  One you definitly wouldn't begrudge a legitamite tracker for having and honestly likely better accuracy rates then NPD had when they first started off.



Being first in November and nevertheless getting beaten by Nintendo from BF to Xmas again must really suck. So it'd be very nice of us letting Grrrrrenfield console himself.  O-)   



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Are you serious? You expect a tracker to BE 100% correct!? What are you on? There is always room for error, especially considering that it includes the countries where game shops are dozens of miles apart, ie extremely hard to track. Besides, the adjustments, even if 2M would amount to 2/40=1/20= 5% error in the sales on average.. not too bad tbh..



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

NotStan said:

Are you serious? You expect a tracker to BE 100% correct!? What are you on? There is always room for error, especially considering that it includes the countries where game shops are dozens of miles apart, ie extremely hard to track. Besides, the adjustments, even if 2M would amount to 2/40=1/20= 5% error in the sales on average.. not too bad tbh..

No, I expect them to be within a certain realm of accuracy. The point I was more of making, is that if VGC really had faith in their methods, they wouldn't alter them to be in line with other sources.

At least when Pachter screws up his predictions, he doesn't go back to alter them to make himself look legit.

 

 



RAZurrection said:
NotStan said:

Are you serious? You expect a tracker to BE 100% correct!? What are you on? There is always room for error, especially considering that it includes the countries where game shops are dozens of miles apart, ie extremely hard to track. Besides, the adjustments, even if 2M would amount to 2/40=1/20= 5% error in the sales on average.. not too bad tbh..

No, I expect them to be within a certain realm of accuracy. The point I was more of making, is that if VGC really had faith in their methods, they wouldn't alter them to be in line with other sources.

At least when Pachter screws up his predictions, he doesn't go back to alter them to make himself look legit.

 

In that case no tracking company must have faith in their methods.