By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Kinect Adventures to be a 20 million seller? (I'm dead serious)

Mr.Metralha on 13 November 2010

I just thought about a different approach that anyone mentioned in this thread (I haven't take a read at all the thread but I think no one put this into discussion yet)

 

Let's imagine than in the next pricecut the 360 will be at 200 bucks with HDD and Kinect and Adventures. All bundled, and there's no other sku. From that point on, whoever wants a 360 will have a kinect and KA too.

 

That way, it will not only reach 20M but it can go further too.



Around the Network
Doobie_wop on 13 November 2010
Seece said:

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

The Eye Toy had a user base of about 130 million people, it only sold 10.5 million units over 5 years. It had a pretty decent marketing campaign, it was cheaper and it had it's fair share of shovelware and a few kinda good dancing games. I'm not making the comparison between the Kinect and Eye Toy themselves, but instead the scenarios they are in. Kinect has a larger marketing budget and it's a better device, but the userbase doesn't mean anything.

OT: I think it's possible, especially if Microsoft keep selling it after they release their next console.



Bet with Conegamer and AussieGecko that the PS3 will have more exclusives in 2011 than the Wii or 360... or something.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3879752

gergroy on 13 November 2010
Mummelmann said:

I think its a lot more likely that I become the Prime Minister of Norway to be honest.

Kinect will be, in stark contrast to my prior belief, a big hit but I can't see any possible way for it to sell 20 million units.


you can't see any possible way?  Are you that short sighted?  I can think of one very obvious way, they bundle it with every xbox, or how about if they drop the price to 50 bucks?  There are lots of possible ways for this to happen, and far from impossible.  The 360 and kinect are going to be around for another 2 to 3 years at least.  Plenty of time to move 20 million units.  



HexenLord on 13 November 2010
Seece said:
HexenLord said:

B) The price is only better because of the Arcade version of the 360 being cheaper than any PS3.

Yup, so? Don't care why. All that matters is the fact it IS. That's all that will matter to casuals too.

 Which is why I added to the end of my sentence the fact that the Wii is still cheaper than either of them, so it will continue to appeal more to casuals than either of them.

A Move bundle (that includes a game) PLUS an extra controller for a 2nd person is the same price as the Kinect camera. Factor in a game, and the Move itself it cheaper to jump into.

We're talking about casuals that don't own either console. Fact is, Kinect at $250 is cheaper than PS Move bundle which is what $350? I don't know I havn't checked.

 Same as my 'Wii is still cheaper" statement above. Something more than price alone is going to have to appeal, otherwise everyone goes to the Wii. It'll boil down to what console they want more, not just the peripheral it includes. This will put the PS3/360 about even actually. Kinect is a little more casual friendly in that it offers controller free gameplay and a much better lineup than Move has. On the other hand the PS3 itself will appeal to casuals since it offers Blu-ray playback and free online.

C) True, which is why it will appeal to so many people at first, and sell so well for a while. I'm just worried about the fact that its so limited in the types of games it can produce.

They will always come up with new ways to innovate with Kinect, and you know what? After a year of "YOU ARE THE CONTROLLER" they could very well bring out some sort of controller to go with Kinect to make core games more deep. It's not a contradiction or a sign of failure from Kinect, it'll just enhance core gameplay for core fans. That said some brilliant minds are working on Kinect, I have faith they can work around any issues they face.

And I hope thats true. I'm a firm believer than innovations and competition are what leads to further innovations and a much greater gaming experience for us consumers. Kinect providing back to back enhancements could possible benefit everyone in the long run, not just MS fans.


Some of the more core games like FPS games won't be Kinect compatible or full of features when used with Kinect because of the lack of a controller. This is why I believe it'll draw in a huge crowd of casuals compared to hardcore gamers, and why a 50% attach rate would ultimately lead to the 360 becoming more of a casual console than the hardcore console it is now.

I very much doubt it'll ever get to 50% attach ratio, that's about 35 million. Of which a lot will still be core gamers, you need to ignore the COD and Halo fan/boys on the net hating on Kinect, look at the core 360 gamers here, we're all buying it.

 

The problem with this is that everyone else on this forum said they were buying either Heavy Rain or Alan Wake, which both ended up having only 'good' sales and in the long run made up a very small amount of the user base. CoD/Halo fanboys make up a much larger and more driven portion of the gaming industry than casuals willing to spend well over a hundred bucks just on a peripheral addon to a hardcore console they probably don't own just yet.







4k1x3r on 13 November 2010
psrock said:
Mr.Metralha said:
psrock said:
Seece said:

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

I  actually agree with you. It's bundle folks, as long as Kinect sells, this game will get there easily.

It's the opposite. As long as the game sells, kinect will get there easily.


I'm sure people buy Kinect to get the hands on kinect adventures.

Eye toy had 100M userbase, it sold less than 10M seece.



Around the Network
Mummelmann on 13 November 2010
gergroy said:
Mummelmann said:

I think its a lot more likely that I become the Prime Minister of Norway to be honest.

Kinect will be, in stark contrast to my prior belief, a big hit but I can't see any possible way for it to sell 20 million units.


you can't see any possible way?  Are you that short sighted?  I can think of one very obvious way, they bundle it with every xbox, or how about if they drop the price to 50 bucks?  There are lots of possible ways for this to happen, and far from impossible.  The 360 and kinect are going to be around for another 2 to 3 years at least.  Plenty of time to move 20 million units.  


They're gonna drop the retail price to six dollars below production cost? Retail also entails vendors profit, transport and storage so MS could end up getting 30-35$ per unit, netting them a solid loss for every unit sold. Giving it away free with every x-box would also net them a similar loss, only bigger since the camera effectively has no retail value. Do you think they're that daft? Come on... The production cost will surely go down in time but by the time they can afford to drop the price to fifty dollars, it won't matter any longer since the next generation will have started and all their focus will be on that (imo).

Besides, seeing the software, I can't imagine why this will keep selling oodles instead of the Wii. Kinect will have a solid holiday and certainly have no problem beating Move, but what about next year and slower months? What possible incentive will they give people for getting a 150$ camera that can only be used for Wii knockoff titles and cuddling animals, on a console designed in essence for a core gamer?



Pyramid12 on 13 November 2010



Seece on 13 November 2010
4k1x3r said:
psrock said:
Mr.Metralha said:
psrock said:
Seece said:

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

I  actually agree with you. It's bundle folks, as long as Kinect sells, this game will get there easily.

It's the opposite. As long as the game sells, kinect will get there easily.


I'm sure people buy Kinect to get the hands on kinect adventures.

Eye toy had 100M userbase, it sold less than 10M seece.

Eyetoy wasn't remotely the same caliber as Kinect, as will be seen when it ships over half of what the eyetoy did in what, 5 years? in 8 weeks.



 

psrock on 13 November 2010
4k1x3r said:
psrock said:
Mr.Metralha said:
psrock said:
Seece said:

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

I  actually agree with you. It's bundle folks, as long as Kinect sells, this game will get there easily.

It's the opposite. As long as the game sells, kinect will get there easily.


I'm sure people buy Kinect to get the hands on kinect adventures.

Eye toy had 100M userbase, it sold less than 10M seece.


Move will sell more than Eye toy, we are talking about a product being pushed as the next big thing. People who can't accept Kinect will be successful will very unhappy in the next couple months.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
greenmedic88 on 13 November 2010

This thread should have been labeled "Kinect to reach 20 million sales?"