Kinect Adventures to be a 20 million seller? (I'm dead serious)

[Doobie_wop]

Seece said:

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

The Eye Toy had a user base of about 130 million people, it only sold 10.5 million units over 5 years. It had a pretty decent marketing campaign, it was cheaper and it had it's fair share of shovelware and a few kinda good dancing games. I'm not making the comparison between the Kinect and Eye Toy themselves, but instead the scenarios they are in. Kinect has a larger marketing budget and it's a better device, but the userbase doesn't mean anything.

OT: I think it's possible, especially if Microsoft keep selling it after they release their next console.