Very little is fact, the likely hood of it not passing 5 mill shipped, when they said this 2 weeks ago and know how many they're shipping for the holiday, mean's it's not even worth debating. Heck I bet it's now FACT they will ship 5 mill for the holiday, not sold btw.

The Nintendo prediction was 2007, a lot has happened since then. The PS3 link is in another language so I can't comment on that. You can't compare long term to short term in terms of predictions.

I believe 20 million is definitely possible if KINECT is a hit (and it kind of looks like it will be)

Because these 8 weeks make up to 50% of the whole year sales, because sales will be lower than shipments and because these 5 millions are more likely 4.6 millions rounded up, that's why.

I didn't say with the proper words. But this is what I want to say. Shipped =/= sells. Its a fact that the shipped 5 mill. But this doesn't meant sold.

The first link for ps3 says Sony expect to surppas ps2 sales and at 2016 to have sold 150mill ps3. The second link says they think Wii is another race and ps3 then will win the console race.

like Reach sold 12m first 10 weeks as you predicted..............lmao

If they do that, they should also remove any game that has ever been bundled, including controller bundles like Wii Play.

But would that be fair?  What about people that ARE buying a bundle because of the game included with it?

To be honest, the most fair solution is to count them all, but I understand what you're saying.

IT WILL! Just you wait and see!

Oh wait...

Anyway I'll be surprised if Kinect gets 15m, let alone 20m.

Well, we have to assume Kinect Adventures will remain bundled with Kinect forever because it would never even come close to that number on its own.  Here's the thing:  Wii fit, for example, sold the balance board.  In fact Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus are the ONLY games the masses ever cared about for the balance board.  So it really comes down to one question:  Will Kinect have software compelling enough to keep it selling to reach that number, and that's where I become doubtful.  Like Seece said, it's certainly not impossible, but IMO, it's improbable.

It's quite bizzare people think 20 mill is so out of reach for Kinect.

It has the current 45 mill userbase to appeal to through it's life, but it has the eventual 100 mill plus Wii owners to appeal to.

Side by side, what is a casual going to find more appealing? Kinect or Wii? there wouldn't be much in it, both have pros and cons but I don't see casuals saying "no wii is miles better".

So how can Wii sell 100 mill plus (eventually) but Kinect can't even appeal to 20% of that audience, heck it doesn't even need to appeal to 20, just 10% with the remaining 10% from the current 360 audience (that'd be less than 25% as of today)

Price cuts will come, more SW will come. Yet Kinect can't possibly appeal to people like the Wii could, why?

it is more likely that a teleportation(sp) device is released before that happens :P