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Well, we have to assume Kinect Adventures will remain bundled with Kinect forever because it would never even come close to that number on its own.  Here's the thing:  Wii fit, for example, sold the balance board.  In fact Wii Fit and Wii Fit Plus are the ONLY games the masses ever cared about for the balance board.  So it really comes down to one question:  Will Kinect have software compelling enough to keep it selling to reach that number, and that's where I become doubtful.  Like Seece said, it's certainly not impossible, but IMO, it's improbable.