Well, I did this rather large chart comparing years all the way to launch and the 5 weeks prior to/including Thanksgiving/Black Friday week. Obviously the data for this year so far is rather restricted because we only have 2 weeks (Americas not included) of those 5. But, what I'm seeing at the current moment versus last year is Others will be up about 5.5% NOT including GT5 push. This equates to 262,411 sales. Looking at the graph, Japan seems to be an extremely volatile market this time of year. Without factoring in GT5, I think they'll see sales of about 35,000. As for the Americas, based on week 1, and estimating a little further, we'll probably be about the same as last year not factoring in GT5, which would equate to 486,033. Now I need to mention, Black Friday last year was like 150% increase from the year before that. Not even worrying about GT5, we'll probably see sales of ~785,000.
Now, the great question is how many units can GT5 push, especially in a week where a lot of people are already pushed to buy a console (on one hand, you might be taking away some that would be considered for GT5 push, but on other hand, you may have some people that the combination of GT5 and black friday will result in them getting one, so overall, I think the push will be the same). So can GT5 push 215,000 units worldwide? As popular as it is in Europe, you may see 400,000-450,000 sales in Europe alone, so that only means you need 90000-140,000 more. I think if the advertising pumps up, you'll see Americas sales being pushed by ~60,000-90,000 sales. I'm not sure how popular this game is in Japan, but possibly 10,000-20,000 sales increase? Total sales increase from GT5 I'm estimating is 160,000-250,000.
My overall prediction: Exactly 1,000,001 units.