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Forums - Sales - GT5 - Success of Failure? A list of pros/cons

Michael-5 on 09 November 2010
CGI-Quality said:
themanwithnoname said:

 

 

Relax you two.

CGI was just pointing out that in most GT5 debates, I'm generally supporting the arguement that it won't sell as well as others expect.

themanwithnoname, your right though, bashing the game is a poor choice of words. Thanks for standing up for me, but it wasn't necessary this time.

BTW would both of you like to add any pro's/cons to the table?

As for why I've took that stance in the past, well most people on this website support the game blindly, against logic. I'm pretty neutral about this game myself, but if everyone is optimistic about the game, it makes a better debate bringing up the concerning points.

Example at Hus in this thread, he wants to discredit the logic applied by 1 con (Bigger PS2 install base in Japan at the time GT4P was released, then the PS3 install base when GT5P was release), which is fine, but by doing so he credits another con that follows that same logic (PS3 has a smaller install base so GT5 should sell less then prior GT games). At the same time he claims there are no cons for this game, but this is a contradiction to the first point he raised. Just makes no sence, and it's blind faith. I'm being a little mean singling him out, but it's conveinient because his points are raised in this thread.

If more people started to critisize this game, I would make my debate more optimistic, and I have many optimistic/concerning points I could add to the table, but I want to let others populate the list first, otherwise it will just be my name tagged to everything.



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Michael-5 on 09 November 2010
CGI-Quality said:
Michael-5 said:

The problem is were comparing GT5 to GT1-4.It's a valid point, and I think GT5 will do well, bu I can't really add this as a pro, or con. It's a very neutral opinion.

I agree it's just an opinion, but you have to admit it makes good sense.

I made a Neutral category and added this. It does make a lot of sence, but when comparing it to past GT games, it's neither pro or con.



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Hus on 09 November 2010

 

I have yet to see even one intelligent logical con for GT5, not one.

Things are looking damn well for GT5 sales.



Frieza on 09 November 2010

Also many of the past GT games sold as well as the biggest games on the console. GT1 was the best selling game on the PS1 (besting FFVII), and GT2 was the third best. GT3 was the second best selling game on the PS2, and GT4 was the fifth. So even if GT5 doesn't top Modern Warfare 2, it should top the 7 million by GTA IV.


Its true previous GT games have sold a ton but interest has decreased alot since GT3, GT4's US sales dropped to 2.8 million from 7.1 million. GT for PSP had poor US sales. They seem to prefer driving games like Need For Speed now.

Theres definitley no certainty itll pass GTAIV either, the games been forgotten a little because of the mixed opinions on it but lets not forget that it was the most anticipated game of all time at the time, everybody was talking about it like how COD is now.

Meanwhile hardly anybody is talking about GT5, its not had half the hype of Uncharted 2 or God of War 3.

As for its sales in US if it is incredibly lucky it can sell about 2 million copies, its not gonna sell that much more than that, COD4 was the start of a craze and that sold 2.7 million in US, COD WAW sold 2.3 million, GT5 a franchise that had a drastic drop with GT4 and something nobody is really talking about isnt gonna surpass that.

For Japan around a million, GT4 only sold 1.26 million with a bigger userbase. Only one game has sold above 850,000 and thats Final Fantasy which was always bigger than GT.

And EMEAA is where itll have its most success but i dont see that passing Fifa 10s 3 million either.

If its very lucky it can maybe get 6-7 million. Im expecting around 4.5-5.5 million copies. But 10 million wont happen even if it sold aswell as GTA4 in US, aswell as FF13 in Japan and aswell as MW2 in EMEAA it still wouldnt reach it.

 



Hus on 09 November 2010
Frieza said:

Also many of the past GT games sold as well as the biggest games on the console. GT1 was the best selling game on the PS1 (besting FFVII), and GT2 was the third best. GT3 was the second best selling game on the PS2, and GT4 was the fifth. So even if GT5 doesn't top Modern Warfare 2, it should top the 7 million by GTA IV.


Its true previous GT games have sold a ton but interest has decreased alot since GT3, GT4's US sales dropped to 2.8 million from 7.1 million. GT for PSP had poor US sales. They seem to prefer driving games like Need For Speed now.

Theres definitley no certainty itll pass GTAIV either, the games been forgotten a little because of the mixed opinions on it but lets not forget that it was the most anticipated game of all time at the time, everybody was talking about it like how COD is now.

Meanwhile hardly anybody is talking about GT5, its not had half the hype of Uncharted 2 or God of War 3.

As for its sales in US if it is incredibly lucky it can sell about 2 million copies, its not gonna sell that much more than that, COD4 was the start of a craze and that sold 2.7 million in US, COD WAW sold 2.3 million, GT5 a franchise that had a drastic drop with GT4 and something nobody is really talking about isnt gonna surpass that.

For Japan around a million, GT4 only sold 1.26 million with a bigger userbase. Only one game has sold above 850,000 and thats Final Fantasy which was always bigger than GT.

And EMEAA is where itll have its most success but i dont see that passing Fifa 10s 3 million either.

If its very lucky it can maybe get 6-7 million. Im expecting around 4.5-5.5 million copies. But 10 million wont happen even if it sold aswell as GTA4 in US, aswell as FF13 in Japan and aswell as MW2 in EMEAA it still wouldnt reach it.

 

lol wtf.

do you even have a semblance of a clue about what in the hell you are posting about ?

GT5Prologue did 3 million in Europe............ Just saying.



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Michael-5 on 09 November 2010
Frieza said:

Also many of the past GT games sold as well as the biggest games on the console. GT1 was the best selling game on the PS1 (besting FFVII), and GT2 was the third best. GT3 was the second best selling game on the PS2, and GT4 was the fifth. So even if GT5 doesn't top Modern Warfare 2, it should top the 7 million by GTA IV.


Its true previous GT games have sold a ton but interest has decreased alot since GT3, GT4's US sales dropped to 2.8 million from 7.1 million. GT for PSP had poor US sales. They seem to prefer driving games like Need For Speed now.

Theres definitley no guarentee itll pass GTAIV either, the games been forgotten a little because of the mixed opinions on it but lets not forget that it was the most anticipated game of all time at the time, everybody was talking about it like how COD is now.

Meanwhile hardly anybody is talking about GT5, its not had half the hype of Uncharted 2 or God of War 3.

As for its sales in US if it is incredibly lucky it can sell about 2 million copies, its not gonna sell that much more than that, Call of Duty 4 was the start of a craze and that sold 2.7 million in US, GT5 a franchise that had a drastic drop with GT4 and something nobody is really talking about isnt gonna surpass that.

For Japan around a million, GT4 only sold 1.26 million with a bigger userbase. Only one game has sold above 850,000 and thats Final Fantasy which was always bigger than GT.

And EMEAA is where itll have its most success but i dont see that passing Fifa 10s 3 million either.

If its very lucky it can maybe get 6-7 million. Im expecting around 4.5-5.5 million copies. But 10 million wont happen even if it sold aswell as GTA4 in US, aswell as FF13 in Japan and aswell as MW2 in EMEAA it still wouldnt reach it.

 

GT games never had strong support from the Americas. Only GT3 sold extensively and that was largely due to console bundles and it being a "showcase" title. GT1 and GT2 still sold about 4 million in the states, and a GT4 sales may have been cut off by the 360 (which is really popular in Americas).

GT PSP is another debate entirely. It was poorly received, and a handheld interation. I'm not quite sure why it did so poorly, I like the game.

NFS also peaked sales on the PS2, on current gen console NFS sales have dropped, largely due to a silly attempt to make NFS a track racing game, to reduce street racing among teens.

As for your total sales, you realise GT5P sold 4.95 million worldwide, 1.21 million in Americas, 740k in Japan, and 3.02 million in Europe? VGChartz doesn' account for about 1 million worldwide sales due to digital distributions, so use Polyphony data:

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

If GT5P sold only 100k units shy of FFXIII, don't you think it's possible that GT5 be the best selling PS3 game in Japan at least?

Also GT5P already outsold FIFA in EMEAA, you don't see GT5 at least matching that, if not surpassing it?

Your logic makes sence, but your giving sales values almost identical to GT5P. GT4 outsold GT4P by60% in Japan, so if the rest of the world holds that ratio for GT5 over GT5P we should see sales of at about 8 million. My guess is 8.5 million, and I can't see this game doing any worse then 7 million, but that's my opinion.

Anyway I want to keep sales figures out of this because EVERYONE has a different opinion on sales. I just want to get pros/cons.



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SpartenOmega117 on 10 November 2010
Michael-5 said:
Frieza said:

Also many of the past GT games sold as well as the biggest games on the console. GT1 was the best selling game on the PS1 (besting FFVII), and GT2 was the third best. GT3 was the second best selling game on the PS2, and GT4 was the fifth. So even if GT5 doesn't top Modern Warfare 2, it should top the 7 million by GTA IV.


Its true previous GT games have sold a ton but interest has decreased alot since GT3, GT4's US sales dropped to 2.8 million from 7.1 million. GT for PSP had poor US sales. They seem to prefer driving games like Need For Speed now.

Theres definitley no guarentee itll pass GTAIV either, the games been forgotten a little because of the mixed opinions on it but lets not forget that it was the most anticipated game of all time at the time, everybody was talking about it like how COD is now.

Meanwhile hardly anybody is talking about GT5, its not had half the hype of Uncharted 2 or God of War 3.

As for its sales in US if it is incredibly lucky it can sell about 2 million copies, its not gonna sell that much more than that, Call of Duty 4 was the start of a craze and that sold 2.7 million in US, GT5 a franchise that had a drastic drop with GT4 and something nobody is really talking about isnt gonna surpass that.

For Japan around a million, GT4 only sold 1.26 million with a bigger userbase. Only one game has sold above 850,000 and thats Final Fantasy which was always bigger than GT.

And EMEAA is where itll have its most success but i dont see that passing Fifa 10s 3 million either.

If its very lucky it can maybe get 6-7 million. Im expecting around 4.5-5.5 million copies. But 10 million wont happen even if it sold aswell as GTA4 in US, aswell as FF13 in Japan and aswell as MW2 in EMEAA it still wouldnt reach it.

 

GT games never had strong support from the Americas. Only GT3 sold extensively and that was largely due to console bundles and it being a "showcase" title. GT1 and GT2 still sold about 4 million in the states, and a GT4 sales may have been cut off by the 360 (which is really popular in Americas).

GT PSP is another debate entirely. It was poorly received, and a handheld interation. I'm not quite sure why it did so poorly, I like the game.

NFS also peaked sales on the PS2, on current gen console NFS sales have dropped, largely due to a silly attempt to make NFS a track racing game, to reduce street racing among teens.

As for your total sales, you realise GT5P sold 4.95 million worldwide, 1.21 million in Americas, 740k in Japan, and 3.02 million in Europe? VGChartz doesn' account for about 1 million worldwide sales due to digital distributions, so use Polyphony data:

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

If GT5P sold only 100k units shy of FFXIII, don't you think it's possible that GT5 be the best selling PS3 game in Japan at least?

Also GT5P already outsold FIFA in EMEAA, you don't see GT5 at least matching that, if not surpassing it?

Your logic makes sence, but your giving sales values almost identical to GT5P. GT4 outsold GT4P by60% in Japan, so if the rest of the world holds that ratio for GT5 over GT5P we should see sales of at about 8 million. My guess is 8.5 million, and I can't see this game doing any worse then 7 million, but that's my opinion.

Anyway I want to keep sales figures out of this because EVERYONE has a different opinion on sales. I just want to get pros/cons.

also GT5 has at least 3 years to sell until GT6 comes out. If sony does not bundle GT5 in the states this holiday they will surely do it next holiday. Imagine a GT5 PS3 bundle for $199. 



nonchalant on 10 November 2010
Frieza said:

Also many of the past GT games sold as well as the biggest games on the console. GT1 was the best selling game on the PS1 (besting FFVII), and GT2 was the third best. GT3 was the second best selling game on the PS2, and GT4 was the fifth. So even if GT5 doesn't top Modern Warfare 2, it should top the 7 million by GTA IV.


Its true previous GT games have sold a ton but interest has decreased alot since GT3, GT4's US sales dropped to 2.8 million from 7.1 million. GT for PSP had poor US sales. They seem to prefer driving games like Need For Speed now.

Theres definitley no certainty itll pass GTAIV either, the games been forgotten a little because of the mixed opinions on it but lets not forget that it was the most anticipated game of all time at the time, everybody was talking about it like how COD is now.

Meanwhile hardly anybody is talking about GT5, its not had half the hype of Uncharted 2 or God of War 3.

As for its sales in US if it is incredibly lucky it can sell about 2 million copies, its not gonna sell that much more than that, COD4 was the start of a craze and that sold 2.7 million in US, COD WAW sold 2.3 million, GT5 a franchise that had a drastic drop with GT4 and something nobody is really talking about isnt gonna surpass that.

For Japan around a million, GT4 only sold 1.26 million with a bigger userbase. Only one game has sold above 850,000 and thats Final Fantasy which was always bigger than GT.

And EMEAA is where itll have its most success but i dont see that passing Fifa 10s 3 million either.

If its very lucky it can maybe get 6-7 million. Im expecting around 4.5-5.5 million copies. But 10 million wont happen even if it sold aswell as GTA4 in US, aswell as FF13 in Japan and aswell as MW2 in EMEAA it still wouldnt reach it.

 

Ban bet that GT5>4.5 Million before January1st 2011?



libellule on 10 November 2010
Frieza said:

Itll sell, but not half as much as what people here think. Remember this site is full of Sony fans and they tend to hype up things a bit too much, i remember when people were predicting 5 million copies for God of War 3 and look what happened.

Theres really no interest out there for Gran Turismo 5, according to Google trends more people are searching for even Street Fighter than Gran Turismo,  Halo and Call of Duty have several fold the amount of searchs GT has, nobody has any interest in it, the games about a month away and even Tekken is getting more searchs. Assassins Creed is getting double the google hits as GT.

And PS fans think Gran Turismo 5 is gonna sell 10 million copies? when something like MW2 which people are actually do care for hasnt even sold 9 million? i actually find that laughable how deluded people are here.

I can understand that because Microsoft has something like Halo thats sales embarrass that of Killzone, Uncharted, God of War etc PS fans are latching onto Gran Turismo as their last hope. Itll sell but in the end everyone will be gutted.

another guy that doesnt get that internet =/= real world

or that NA =/= WW

you will eat your crow sooner or later

and if prologue can do 5M, then GT5 can do 10M (on an at least 2 fold bigger install base)



Time to Work !

libellule on 10 November 2010
Michael-5 said:
libellule said:
Michael-5 said:

Userbase is meaningless, but if you really want I can also write that down as a con for why GT5 will sell less then GT1-4. Less PS3's mean less sales right? Did GT3 not outsell GT4 when less PS2's were around? Did GT1 not do the same against GT2? Did MGS4 sell just as well as MGS3? Did GoW3 sell as well as GoW 2? Userbase only matters to purely casual games like Mario Kart (which sold 1/3rd as many units as there are consoles out there on the N64, GCN, and Wii).

You can't apply this logic only to one aspect (GT5P in Japan) and not to others (GT5 total sales), thats just foolish.

You really like to press your opinion as facts don't you?

WE are applying this logic too

GT5 will sell less than the past GT because of the reduced userbase

But YOUR point using GTprologue sales as an argue is pointless considering the almost identical sales between the 2 Prologue despite the HUGE userbase difference (close to 1/10 !!!)

So YOUR point on Prologue is a false claim supported by no data

According to VGChartz there were about 17.8 million PS2's in Japan upon luanch of GT4, and the game ended up selling 1.26 million copies in Japan.

However GT3 was released in Japan when only about 4.4 million PS2's were on the market and it ended up sellin 1.89 million units total.

According to your logic as well as Hus's, this should have been impossible. GT3 was released on a userbase about 1/4th the size, but GT3 still ended up selling about 1.5 times better.

Installbase arguements are meaningless. Halo Reach, MGS4, and GoW3 are recent example proving this (sold as well as their predecessors despite a significantly different install base)

Yes GT5P was released on an install base 1/10th the size, but it also had 3 years to accumulate sales, instead of 1, and didn't have another GT game to take away Prologue sales. The difference in sales is only 7% or so, but the timeframe to sell is A LOT longer.

So this point counts, and is valid, but I will not be putting PS3 having a smaller userbase then PS1/PS2 as a con unless someone can give me a really good reason.

funny how you are playing with own poor argumented thread

I never saied userbase was the ultimate point to see if a game will succeed or not. Like you, I m aware, that despite userbase discrepancy, we have seen some games selling very well on PS3 meaning the userbase was clearly not the very important point here. It is obvious now for everybody. I only used the userbase argument because when it comes as big as 1/10, it will always have some impact on the sales.
Also, comparing 2 games released in the same generation is, similarly senseless. Since GT3 was the first installement, it sold better independantly of the userbase. GT4, at the opposite, was seen as GT3.5 and sold less.
Indeed, the fact that GT5 is the first REAL GT title for the PS3 will greatly help it. Comparing GT5 to GT4 (or even GT5pro to GT4pro) is meaningless ....

But more than this, I do believe that IN GENERAL it is always very risky to try to guess what a game will do based on their previous installement.

So even if I do believe the userbase discrepancy was so big in our case (1/10) that it was an important factor, there are also others points I can comments about.
Also, to comment on your point, you said GT4pro only had 1 year to sell ? But you should realize most of the sales for a game come from the ... 1ST YEAR !
Secondly, you also saied the game outsold GT5pro by 6% and concluded "hype is low for GT5"
.... ARE YOU KIDDING US ? Hype is perhaps not as high as it was, but, really, the game will sell very well !!!

Also, I think the whole problem is your thread ITSELF : it is complete FAILURE for 2 reasons :

- Your success or failure are NOT well defined. I expect 10M LTD for GT5. Success or failure ? Because I do consider it will be a success but I do not consider it will be as big as GT3. Indeed, I m not sure you will find guys claiming GT5 will do 15M LTD (outside some free claim here and here). SO really, next time make a poll and make nothing.

- Your point listed as "cons" are completely biaised since there are, most of the time minor point that will not play a huge role at the end (explained in all the thread).



Time to Work !