Itll sell, but not half as much as what people here think. Remember this site is full of Sony fans and they tend to hype up things a bit too much, i remember when people were predicting 5 million copies for God of War 3 and look what happened.

Theres really no interest out there for Gran Turismo 5, according to Google trends more people are searching for even Street Fighter than Gran Turismo,  Halo and Call of Duty have several fold the amount of searchs GT has, nobody has any interest in it, the games about a month away and even Tekken is getting more searchs. Assassins Creed is getting double the google hits as GT.

And PS fans think Gran Turismo 5 is gonna sell 10 million copies? when something like MW2 which people are actually do care for hasnt even sold 9 million? i actually find that laughable how deluded people are here.

I can understand that because Microsoft has something like Halo thats sales embarrass that of Killzone, Uncharted, God of War etc PS fans are latching onto Gran Turismo as their last hope. Itll sell but in the end everyone will be gutted.

According to VGChartz there were about 17.8 million PS2's in Japan upon luanch of GT4, and the game ended up selling 1.26 million copies in Japan.

However GT3 was released in Japan when only about 4.4 million PS2's were on the market and it ended up sellin 1.89 million units total.

According to your logic as well as Hus's, this should have been impossible. GT3 was released on a userbase about 1/4th the size, but GT3 still ended up selling about 1.5 times better.

Installbase arguements are meaningless. Halo Reach, MGS4, and GoW3 are recent example proving this (sold as well as their predecessors despite a significantly different install base)

Yes GT5P was released on an install base 1/10th the size, but it also had 3 years to accumulate sales, instead of 1, and didn't have another GT game to take away Prologue sales. The difference in sales is only 7% or so, but the timeframe to sell is A LOT longer.

So this point counts, and is valid, but I will not be putting PS3 having a smaller userbase then PS1/PS2 as a con unless someone can give me a really good reason.

What does TC mean?

In the OP I did say many of these reasons are likely only going to make a small difference, if any at all. It's a completly subjective list, look at it read it over, I expect people not to agree with many of the points as we all have our own opinion.

I only want to tally a potential list of reasons pro/con.

The first phrase of your post doesn't follow your own advise. If "I'm looking for something that isn't there" why is it there to begin with? Quit trying to turn this back on me; I'm not the one who said it, all I did was ask a question.

Not all racing games have reduced in Popularity. Test Drive Unlimited was one of the best selling Test Drive games, and Forza has grown from a 1m unit franchise to 4 million unit. Also Codemaster racers, and Motorstorm still sell very well, and Mario Kart has jumped in sales like crazy.

If you expand upon this point I will add it, but as it is right now, I can't put it as a con.

Can't be more annoying than you trying to label me as condescending or angry every time I quote you, or in this case ask you to clarify a comment, which you still haven't done. I'll leave too, because this is another hilariously typical example of what happens when anybody tries to enter a serious debate with you, or in this case, asks you to put a remark in context.

The problem is were comparing GT5 to GT1-4.It's a valid point, and I think GT5 will do well, bu I can't really add this as a pro, or con. It's a very neutral opinion.

Delays affect sales. Do you think Duke Nukem will be as phenominal as before with all of its delays?

MW2 still has another complete year to sell 1.4 million units in order to cross 10 million. It's currently selling about 30-40k weekly, and that will likely drop a bit due to Black Ops, but even then it will likely (just) make 10 million.

Also many of the past GT games sold as well as the biggest games on the console. GT1 was the best selling game on the PS1 (besting FFVII), and GT2 was the third best. GT3 was the second best selling game on the PS2, and GT4 was the fifth. So even if GT5 doesn't top Modern Warfare 2, it should top the 7 million by GTA IV.

10 million is a push, there are many cons on the list the support sub-10 million sales, but it's not impossible. Thats the reason why this list is created.

I'll add your point to the cons.

Children, please.  No need to get all bent out of shape about a game.

Regardless, I think that GT5's sales will be almost 3-4x out of the US, and will sell big time.  I hardly care much for the game at this point, but I know this will be great racing game for those who like racing games, especially given the plethora of value tucked into the game.

Despite this, I do not think the numbers will be as large as people claim.  Hands down will be PS3's best exclusive by a substantial margin.