GT5 - Success of Failure? A list of pros/cons

[libellule]

Michael-5 said:

libellule said:

Michael-5 said:

Userbase is meaningless, but if you really want I can also write that down as a con for why GT5 will sell less then GT1-4. Less PS3's mean less sales right? Did GT3 not outsell GT4 when less PS2's were around? Did GT1 not do the same against GT2? Did MGS4 sell just as well as MGS3? Did GoW3 sell as well as GoW 2? Userbase only matters to purely casual games like Mario Kart (which sold 1/3rd as many units as there are consoles out there on the N64, GCN, and Wii).

You can't apply this logic only to one aspect (GT5P in Japan) and not to others (GT5 total sales), thats just foolish.

You really like to press your opinion as facts don't you?

WE are applying this logic too

GT5 will sell less than the past GT because of the reduced userbase

But YOUR point using GTprologue sales as an argue is pointless considering the almost identical sales between the 2 Prologue despite the HUGE userbase difference (close to 1/10 !!!)

So YOUR point on Prologue is a false claim supported by no data

According to VGChartz there were about 17.8 million PS2's in Japan upon luanch of GT4, and the game ended up selling 1.26 million copies in Japan.

However GT3 was released in Japan when only about 4.4 million PS2's were on the market and it ended up sellin 1.89 million units total.

According to your logic as well as Hus's, this should have been impossible. GT3 was released on a userbase about 1/4th the size, but GT3 still ended up selling about 1.5 times better.

Installbase arguements are meaningless. Halo Reach, MGS4, and GoW3 are recent example proving this (sold as well as their predecessors despite a significantly different install base)

Yes GT5P was released on an install base 1/10th the size, but it also had 3 years to accumulate sales, instead of 1, and didn't have another GT game to take away Prologue sales. The difference in sales is only 7% or so, but the timeframe to sell is A LOT longer.

So this point counts, and is valid, but I will not be putting PS3 having a smaller userbase then PS1/PS2 as a con unless someone can give me a really good reason.

funny how you are playing with own poor argumented thread

I never saied userbase was the ultimate point to see if a game will succeed or not. Like you, I m aware, that despite userbase discrepancy, we have seen some games selling very well on PS3 meaning the userbase was clearly not the very important point here. It is obvious now for everybody. I only used the userbase argument because when it comes as big as 1/10, it will always have some impact on the sales.
Also, comparing 2 games released in the same generation is, similarly senseless. Since GT3 was the first installement, it sold better independantly of the userbase. GT4, at the opposite, was seen as GT3.5 and sold less.
Indeed, the fact that GT5 is the first REAL GT title for the PS3 will greatly help it. Comparing GT5 to GT4 (or even GT5pro to GT4pro) is meaningless ....

But more than this, I do believe that IN GENERAL it is always very risky to try to guess what a game will do based on their previous installement.

So even if I do believe the userbase discrepancy was so big in our case (1/10) that it was an important factor, there are also others points I can comments about.
Also, to comment on your point, you said GT4pro only had 1 year to sell ? But you should realize most of the sales for a game come from the ... 1ST YEAR !
Secondly, you also saied the game outsold GT5pro by 6% and concluded "hype is low for GT5"
.... ARE YOU KIDDING US ? Hype is perhaps not as high as it was, but, really, the game will sell very well !!!

Also, I think the whole problem is your thread ITSELF : it is complete FAILURE for 2 reasons :

- Your success or failure are NOT well defined. I expect 10M LTD for GT5. Success or failure ? Because I do consider it will be a success but I do not consider it will be as big as GT3. Indeed, I m not sure you will find guys claiming GT5 will do 15M LTD (outside some free claim here and here). SO really, next time make a poll and make nothing.

- Your point listed as "cons" are completely biaised since there are, most of the time minor point that will not play a huge role at the end (explained in all the thread).