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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

 

Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

Best Selling Gran Turismo 939 37.95%
 
2nd Best Selling Gran Turismo 494 19.97%
 
3rd Best Selling Gran Turismo 389 15.72%
 
4th Best Selling Gran Turismo 116 4.69%
 
The Worst Selling Gran Turismo 536 21.67%
 
Total:2,474
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
Michael-5 said:
Blue3 said:

GT4 did 2.5m first week.

Craked 4 million in 3 weeks, with no holiday sales in NA or Europe. 

Yet Gt5 will do less while releasing before Balck Friday and getting 4 weeks of sales leading up to that little Dec 24th date.

 

IGN, one of the largest online gaming networks gave GT5 an 8.5 out of 10. Thats lower then not only every console GT game IGN has ever reviewed, but also lower then every single Forza Motorsport ever reviewed.

Do you still think GT5 will sell as well as prior GT's? How can it have legs just as strong without the same quality as previous games to back it up? Nevermind the smaller fanbase, and the shrinking popularity of consoles in Japan, and the Playstation brand in Americas...

Just so other people are aware, IGN gave GT2 and GT3 a 9.8/10, GT1, GT4, and Forza Motorsport 1 a 9.5/10, FM3 a 9.4/10, and FM2 an 8.9/10. GT5 got 8.5 out of 10, lower then every console GT game, and Forza Motorsport, and coincidently the same score as GT5P. GT PSP got a 6.8/10 and if you pay attention to sales that game is a critical disapointment.

I'll tell you one thing, I'm not so sure my original 8.5 million prediction was that far off anymore, but I still think 9.3 million lifetime.

i think it'll sell 10 million in the end, i've been playing all all day  and it is the best GT to date regardless of some of the flaws. its just a joy to play and the fans of the series are gonna love it. its just classic gran turismo. new people to racing games and peope who aint played GT before may think its a bit bleak but the majority of GT players are hardcore fans of the series. which is why it'll sell more than 10 million. the fans havnt just vanished all of a sudden.

I'm waiting for a "buy 2 get 1 free" promo Best Buy does every year to pick mine up, but I genuinly enjoyed this IGN review. I'm a huge fan of the series and it brought all my concerns into attention, and unfortunatly from what I read GT has not met those concerns.

I'm really excited about this game especially the simulator aspect, I've had instances where I've tried to stop a FF car at 200km/h (124 mph), in the rain, and it really fishtails. Also windsheild wiper blades on a normal car don't work at those speeds. I'm excited to see GT emulate this, it will no doubt be the best.

However reading this review, new concerns were raised to me. The non-responsive AI for one. How can a game this polished have AI that don't pay attention to your driving choices? Why do they not try to avoid collisions? This is something that would seriously take away from the game for me.

Also, only 200 cars only have in car views? I was really hopinh to race some of my friends cars, as well as my own, with an in car view and compare the game with the real life aspects of the car. Including how the car sounds, feels, stops, corners, accelerates, and how well the odometers follow the engine revs. However there seems to be a massive gap in quality between car models.

I'm sorry if I rant, but I am seriously dissapointed with this review score. I'll hae to judge the game for myself this week as one of my friends already has it and has invited me over for some multiplayer racing. Hope other reviews are higher because it's sad when Need for Speed gets a higher review score then GT..



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Michael-5 said:
Jay520 said:
Michael-5 said:
Jay520 said:
Monges79 said:

Exactly. If anyone has noticed, racing games are not as in demand as they used to be. I'm sure that GT5 is a very good game, but people don't buy racing games like they used to.

Were racing games ever in high demand. If anything, the demand is growing.

Mario Kart Wii is the best selling Mario Kart. The franchise is growing.

Forza 2 has outsold Forza1 and Forza 3 will outsell Forza 3. The franchis is growing.

As for Gran Turismo 5, I'ts not going to be the best in the series, but it will sell big. It wil be bundled greatly and it's sales won't stop until GT6 and/or PS4 releases. 

Actually if you look at Mario Kart sales, they follow an attach rate on 1/3. This goes for all Mario Karts except the original Super Mario Kart. Mario Kart didn't all of a sudden get more popular, Nintendo consoles got more popular and Mario Kart just happens to be one of Nintendo's finest games.

As for Forza 2 and 3 gaining sales, well quality has improved significantly from Forza 1 to Forza 3, Forza 2 and 3 are also sold on a more popular console, brand name was established after Forza 1, and most importantly, a significant number of gamers who just love racing games switched over to Forza instead of waiting for GT5. (I was one of them, but I later got a PS3 anyway).

As for GT5, how long do you think until a PS4 releases? 3 years maybe? It's going to sell well, I agree, but I don't think anything above 11 million.

LOL I guess I can't prove you wrong there.

I wouldn't know about this, I only played Forza 1, but I'll take your word for it.

I think the PS4 will release in 2014. I think the PS3 will reach $199 in 2012. It should be able to hold it's own for 2 more years after that. GT6 releasing in 2014 or 2015 I think. That gives GT5 about 4 years of sales on a current console (unlike GT4 which only had 1 year before 360 released and 2 years before PS3 released). I expect 9 - 11mil.

Do you really think Sony will release a GT game on the PS3 the year the PS4 is released? I know GT4 just made the punchline, but personally I think the reason why this GT took so long to develop was because they made the core programming take advantage of higher end programming standard. Meaning they made the engine of the game capable of much much more, and it took a while.

2014, that would mean that the PS3 had 8 years of mainstream life. Not bad, but do you really think the 360 can hold strong sales for 9 years? MS may force Sony to update early, and Wii sales are already heading downhill, how long until that console sees a successor?

No, I don't think GT6 will release in the PS3 at all.

I never said the 360 would release in 2014. I think the 360 will release in 2012 or 2013. If it releases in 2012, then I think the PS3 will release a year later.

I think the next nintendo console will release in 2012. Sales are still outpacing the PS2 and I think it can definitely flourish without a new console next year. That would give it a 6 year lifespan which is average.

If the 720 gets a head start on PS4, that wouldn't hurt sony. The reason Sony had a bad start was because of Price, lack of games, and difficulty to program for. If sony can get their first party devs to make games early in the PS4's life cycle, then the PS4 would be fine. 

Nintendo 6: 2012

XBOX 3: 2012 - 2013

PS4: 2013 - 2014

Back on topic. GT5 will have at least 3/4 years before the next PS console releases, unlike GT2 (which had 1 year), and GT4 (which had 2 years), and they both sold around 10mil. And GT5 will be heavily bundled, so I stick with my prediction for GT5 selling 9-11 in it's lifetime. I'll come back to this thread in 2013 when my prediction comes true lol.



Jay520 said:
Michael-5 said:
Jay520 said:

LOL I guess I can't prove you wrong there.

I wouldn't know about this, I only played Forza 1, but I'll take your word for it.

I think the PS4 will release in 2014. I think the PS3 will reach $199 in 2012. It should be able to hold it's own for 2 more years after that. GT6 releasing in 2014 or 2015 I think. That gives GT5 about 4 years of sales on a current console (unlike GT4 which only had 1 year before 360 released and 2 years before PS3 released). I expect 9 - 11mil.

Do you really think Sony will release a GT game on the PS3 the year the PS4 is released? I know GT4 just made the punchline, but personally I think the reason why this GT took so long to develop was because they made the core programming take advantage of higher end programming standard. Meaning they made the engine of the game capable of much much more, and it took a while.

2014, that would mean that the PS3 had 8 years of mainstream life. Not bad, but do you really think the 360 can hold strong sales for 9 years? MS may force Sony to update early, and Wii sales are already heading downhill, how long until that console sees a successor?

No, I don't think GT6 will release in the PS3 at all.

I never said the 360 would release in 2014. I think the 360 will release in 2012 or 2013. If it releases in 2012, then I think the PS3 will release a year later.

I think the next nintendo console will release in 2012. Sales are still outpacing the PS2 and I think it can definitely flourish without a new console next year. That would give it a 6 year lifespan which is average.

If the 720 gets a head start on PS4, that wouldn't hurt sony. The reason Sony had a bad start was because of Price, lack of games, and difficulty to program for. If sony can get their first party devs to make games early in the PS4's life cycle, then the PS4 would be fine. 

Nintendo 6: 2012

XBOX 3: 2012 - 2013

PS4: 2013 - 2014

Back on topic. GT5 will have at least 3/4 years before the next PS console releases, unlike GT2 (which had 1 year), and GT4 (which had 2 years), and they both sold around 10mil. And GT5 will be heavily bundled, so I stick with my prediction for GT5 selling 9-11 in it's lifetime. I'll come back to this thread in 2013 when my prediction comes true lol.

I think developing the PS4 itself will be difficult. Even if the PS3 drops to $200 next year, if MS and Nintendo release consoles in 2012-2013, the PS3 will still be an expensive system, and I don't see how they can make the PS4 any better unless they go the way of motion controls instead of hardware jump like Nintendo did. Also I really doubt Sony will release the PS4 in 2014 if Nintendo releases their console in 2012. 2 year difference is too much..

As for GT, good point, GT1 had 2 years before GT2 was released, GT2 had 2 years before GT3 was released, and only a little over a year until the PS2 was released. GT3 had 4 years before GT4 was released, and GT4 had 5 years before GT5 was released, but only a year and a half before the PS3 was released.

However GT3 and GT4 sales in EMEAA and Japan are about the same, despite the PS3 launch potentially cutting off hype for GT4. The only difference in sales was in Americas where GT3 saw heavy bundling. I don't think a console release hurts games, I know people who bought GT4 when they bought their PS3's (backward compatible models).

Still a good point, and only a week to wait to see week 1 sales figures.



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ConnorJCP said:

as much as the Best Selling Gran Turismo.IMO.

I expect it to have a Solid Launch, compared to the other Gran Turismo's, which i think will give it a advantage compared to the others, but its legs IMO will be massive compared to most games out there.

Whats everyone think? Will it be the Best Selling Gran Turismo or Perhaps the Worst?
(This is only Main series of Gran Turismo ,1,2,3,4,5.)

*EDIT*
The poll is for what position Gran Turismo 5 will be in Sales wise.

From my part it will sell at least equal to others and better than third (the only one i don't own)



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

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Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Michael-5 said:
Blue3 said:

GT4 did 2.5m first week.

Craked 4 million in 3 weeks, with no holiday sales in NA or Europe. 

Yet Gt5 will do less while releasing before Balck Friday and getting 4 weeks of sales leading up to that little Dec 24th date.

 

IGN, one of the largest online gaming networks gave GT5 an 8.5 out of 10. Thats lower then not only every console GT game IGN has ever reviewed, but also lower then every single Forza Motorsport ever reviewed.

Do you still think GT5 will sell as well as prior GT's? How can it have legs just as strong without the same quality as previous games to back it up? Nevermind the smaller fanbase, and the shrinking popularity of consoles in Japan, and the Playstation brand in Americas...

Just so other people are aware, IGN gave GT2 and GT3 a 9.8/10, GT1, GT4, and Forza Motorsport 1 a 9.5/10, FM3 a 9.4/10, and FM2 an 8.9/10. GT5 got 8.5 out of 10, lower then every console GT game, and Forza Motorsport, and coincidently the same score as GT5P. GT PSP got a 6.8/10 and if you pay attention to sales that game is a critical disapointment.

I'll tell you one thing, I'm not so sure my original 8.5 million prediction was that far off anymore, but I still think 9.3 million lifetime.

 

do you think you can see the difference in sales with a score of 8.5 in comparison to a score of 9.5 ?

I don't think so

only real hardcore nerds get angry over some bad shadows

atleast you wont see a difference of 700k



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mr_capello said:

do you think you can see the difference in sales with a score of 8.5 in comparison to a score of 9.5 ?

I don't think so

only real hardcore nerds get angry over some bad shadows

atleast you wont see a difference of 700k

Tell Metroid: Other M that scores don't matter. Tell that to GT PSP, Lost Planet 2, and many other established franchises.

If GT5 is more poorly rated then compeditors, then it will no longer have the crowning achievment of "best" simulator, and that will hurt sales because media attention and hype will switch onto compeditor franchises.



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Michael-5 said:
mr_capello said:

do you think you can see the difference in sales with a score of 8.5 in comparison to a score of 9.5 ?

I don't think so

only real hardcore nerds get angry over some bad shadows

atleast you wont see a difference of 700k

Tell Metroid: Other M that scores don't matter. Tell that to GT PSP, Lost Planet 2, and many other established franchises.

If GT5 is more poorly rated then compeditors, then it will no longer have the crowning achievment of "best" simulator, and that will hurt sales because media attention and hype will switch onto compeditor franchises.

I forgot to add that a differenc by only 1 point wont matter because people still will see it as a good game with a avarage rating of 88

if it would have an avarge rating of let's say 65 ... you probably would see it in sales

because it's not a good game (like lost planet 2 if you count the reviews)

the crowning achievment of best... doesn't really matter either

mw 1 was a way better game as mw 2

story wise and also mp wise (imba maps , imba perks)



Michael-5 said:
mr_capello said:

do you think you can see the difference in sales with a score of 8.5 in comparison to a score of 9.5 ?

I don't think so

only real hardcore nerds get angry over some bad shadows

atleast you wont see a difference of 700k

Tell Metroid: Other M that scores don't matter. Tell that to GT PSP, Lost Planet 2, and many other established franchises.

If GT5 is more poorly rated then compeditors, then it will no longer have the crowning achievment of "best" simulator, and that will hurt sales because media attention and hype will switch onto compeditor franchises.

SO why is Call of duty black ops trashing Halo reach sales wise then despite having less score? I know because your point is bullshit.



mr_capello said:
Michael-5 said:
mr_capello said:

do you think you can see the difference in sales with a score of 8.5 in comparison to a score of 9.5 ?

I don't think so

only real hardcore nerds get angry over some bad shadows

atleast you wont see a difference of 700k

Tell Metroid: Other M that scores don't matter. Tell that to GT PSP, Lost Planet 2, and many other established franchises.

If GT5 is more poorly rated then compeditors, then it will no longer have the crowning achievment of "best" simulator, and that will hurt sales because media attention and hype will switch onto compeditor franchises.

I forgot to add that a differenc by only 1 point wont matter because people still will see it as a good game with a avarage rating of 88

if it would have an avarge rating of let's say 65 ... you probably would see it in sales

because it's not a good game (like lost planet 2 if you count the reviews)

the crowning achievment of best... doesn't really matter either

mw 1 was a way better game as mw 2

story wise and also mp wise (imba maps , imba perks)

I liked MW2 better, and it got better ratings, but thats besides the point.

GT5 will still sell amazing, I only said that i'm looking more favorably at my original 8.5 million prediction, but I still stand by my 9.3 million prediction.

P.S. Metascore is 86/100, and generally metascores go down after the first few days of release as haters post up reviews.



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Ping_ii said:
Michael-5 said:
mr_capello said:

do you think you can see the difference in sales with a score of 8.5 in comparison to a score of 9.5 ?

I don't think so

only real hardcore nerds get angry over some bad shadows

atleast you wont see a difference of 700k

Tell Metroid: Other M that scores don't matter. Tell that to GT PSP, Lost Planet 2, and many other established franchises.

If GT5 is more poorly rated then compeditors, then it will no longer have the crowning achievment of "best" simulator, and that will hurt sales because media attention and hype will switch onto compeditor franchises.

SO why is Call of duty black ops trashing Halo reach sales wise then despite having less score? I know because your point is bullshit.

So many wrong things you said there...just soo many.

First of all, I said not being the best will hurt sales, not kill them.

Second MW2 generally got higher ratings then Halo 3 and Reach, which hurt Reach's image. This is one reason why Reach is only selling 7% better then Halo 3 despite over double the userbase.

Third Black Ops meta score is 88/100, Halo Reach is 91/100, the difference is only 3%, thats not much, by no means as big as Forza 3 to GT5 will eventually grow to (currently it's 6%, but like I said after a couple weeks metascores go down).

Forth, it's stupid to judge games by metascores, I generally try to stick with established websites. IGN gave Forza 3 a 9.4/10, and GT5 an 8.5/10. Hence my dissapointment. I expected GT5 to score higher then Forza 3, but scoring a full 9% lower? That not only makes Forza 3 a better game, but of another league in quality. I'm going to play GT5 later today, so I'll judge if that review isn't overly critical, but for now I am not expecting much.

Finally Black Ops sales are not trashing Halo Reach sales, but it is selling better. Black Ops was released during the Holiday season, and just like MW2 it will have a strong sales early on. They will level off though, eventually BOs will outsell Halo Reach, but both games will top 10 million, probably even 12 million. The difference between the two will be at best 2-3 million, which by no means is trashing

So :P meanie



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