Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

[Michael-5]

Jay520 said:

Michael-5 said:

Jay520 said:

LOL I guess I can't prove you wrong there.

I wouldn't know about this, I only played Forza 1, but I'll take your word for it.

I think the PS4 will release in 2014. I think the PS3 will reach $199 in 2012. It should be able to hold it's own for 2 more years after that. GT6 releasing in 2014 or 2015 I think. That gives GT5 about 4 years of sales on a current console (unlike GT4 which only had 1 year before 360 released and 2 years before PS3 released). I expect 9 - 11mil.

Do you really think Sony will release a GT game on the PS3 the year the PS4 is released? I know GT4 just made the punchline, but personally I think the reason why this GT took so long to develop was because they made the core programming take advantage of higher end programming standard. Meaning they made the engine of the game capable of much much more, and it took a while.

2014, that would mean that the PS3 had 8 years of mainstream life. Not bad, but do you really think the 360 can hold strong sales for 9 years? MS may force Sony to update early, and Wii sales are already heading downhill, how long until that console sees a successor?

No, I don't think GT6 will release in the PS3 at all.

I never said the 360 would release in 2014. I think the 360 will release in 2012 or 2013. If it releases in 2012, then I think the PS3 will release a year later.

I think the next nintendo console will release in 2012. Sales are still outpacing the PS2 and I think it can definitely flourish without a new console next year. That would give it a 6 year lifespan which is average.

If the 720 gets a head start on PS4, that wouldn't hurt sony. The reason Sony had a bad start was because of Price, lack of games, and difficulty to program for. If sony can get their first party devs to make games early in the PS4's life cycle, then the PS4 would be fine. 

Nintendo 6: 2012

XBOX 3: 2012 - 2013

PS4: 2013 - 2014

Back on topic. GT5 will have at least 3/4 years before the next PS console releases, unlike GT2 (which had 1 year), and GT4 (which had 2 years), and they both sold around 10mil. And GT5 will be heavily bundled, so I stick with my prediction for GT5 selling 9-11 in it's lifetime. I'll come back to this thread in 2013 when my prediction comes true lol.

I think developing the PS4 itself will be difficult. Even if the PS3 drops to $200 next year, if MS and Nintendo release consoles in 2012-2013, the PS3 will still be an expensive system, and I don't see how they can make the PS4 any better unless they go the way of motion controls instead of hardware jump like Nintendo did. Also I really doubt Sony will release the PS4 in 2014 if Nintendo releases their console in 2012. 2 year difference is too much..

As for GT, good point, GT1 had 2 years before GT2 was released, GT2 had 2 years before GT3 was released, and only a little over a year until the PS2 was released. GT3 had 4 years before GT4 was released, and GT4 had 5 years before GT5 was released, but only a year and a half before the PS3 was released.

However GT3 and GT4 sales in EMEAA and Japan are about the same, despite the PS3 launch potentially cutting off hype for GT4. The only difference in sales was in Americas where GT3 saw heavy bundling. I don't think a console release hurts games, I know people who bought GT4 when they bought their PS3's (backward compatible models).

Still a good point, and only a week to wait to see week 1 sales figures.