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Forums - Sales Discussion - What will happen to 360 if Kinect fails?

Cross-X on 06 October 2010
Killiana1a said:

You would have to ask the same question regarding the failure of the Virtual Boy and Nintendo. Virtual Boy was released in 1995, a year before the release of the Nintendo 64, and it did not seem to hit Nintendo hard, if at all when they discontinued a year later.

What failed with the Virtual Boy was the entire concept of a system where you look through goggles to play games. If Kinect fails, it will confirm suspicions that the mass market is not ready for a controller-less video gaming experience.

The concepts fail, the companies take the financial hit, and the industry goes on as usual. If anything, who will hurt most is those within Microsoft who envisioned Kinect, those who are putting their resumes on the line with Kinect, and those VPs who have supported Kinect tooth and nail.

I don't think it will hit Microsoft's hardware sales, it will definitely destroy hardware projections based on the success of Kinect. If anything, the ultimate good may arise out of the failure of Kinect via Microsoft getting more serious on 1st party games and developing new IPs to compete.

Basically, if Kinect fails I will not be surprised if Microsoft counters with a flurry of 1st party software. If Kinect succeeds or muddles the ground just above Kinect, then Microsoft will focus on software development for it and tweak it for future console generations.

Spot on with bolded.



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Killiana1a on 06 October 2010
Doobie_wop said:
Killiana1a said:

You would have to ask the same question regarding the failure of the Virtual Boy and Nintendo. Virtual Boy was released in 1995, a year before the release of the Nintendo 64, and it did not seem to hit Nintendo hard, if at all when they discontinued a year later.

What failed with the Virtual Boy was the entire concept of a system where you look through goggles to play games. If Kinect fails, it will confirm suspicions that the mass market is not ready for a controller-less video gaming experience.

The concepts fail, the companies take the financial hit, and the industry goes on as usual. If anything, who will hurt most is those within Microsoft who envisioned Kinect, those who are putting their resumes on the line with Kinect, and those VPs who have supported Kinect tooth and nail.

I don't think it will hit Microsoft's hardware sales, it will definitely destroy hardware projections based on the success of Kinect. If anything, the ultimate good may arise out of the failure of Kinect via Microsoft getting more serious on 1st party games and developing new IPs to compete.

Basically, if Kinect fails I will not be surprised if Microsoft counters with a flurry of 1st party software. If Kinect succeeds or muddles the ground just above Kinect, then Microsoft will focus on software development for it and tweak it for future console generations.

Microsoft are pouring much more money into Kinect than Nintendo ever did with the Virtual Boy. The R&D has been rumoured to be extremely high and the Microsoft PR is saying that it's marketing budget is massive. It also doesn't help that they might not be making much (if any) profit at launch. I think they might have spent so much money, that if Kinect does fail, Microsoft are probably going to try it again with their next console. They can't let all that investment go to waste and I can see them taking it all in again, working on it more and then making it a built in feature with their next console. Microsoft has a lot of money to spend, but if their investors are pissed off when the console is actually doing well and making a profit, I can't imagine they'd be to happy if more money is being thrown at Microsoft Game Studios after a bad launch.

I agree. I overlooked the massive amounts of money going into it, which would make sense to learn from your failure, take it back into the workshop, tweak it, and re-release it.

As for the investors, there are millions of them, of which I cannot name the top investors off the top of my head. By top, I mean holding more than a 5-10% stake in Microsoft stock. Again, you are right because most investors could care less about the product and would pull their money if they could see a financial boondoggle 10 years in the making.

That being said, it does not make sense to revive a failed product. If Kinect is rejected because like the Virtual Boy, it was ages ahead of it's time, then why would consumers warm up to it a year or four later?

I think the success of Kinect is a referendum on controller-less gaming. Unlike Move and Wii, Microsoft is aiming for the next level here. With these stakes, you either succeed spectacularly or fail just the same. I have a hard time seeing investors pour money into Microsoft for Kinect 2.0 if Kinect 1.0 fails to reach the minimum sales projections.



Mr Puggsly on 06 October 2010

The 360 has been a success without Kinect, it will contineu to be successful regardless how Kinect performs.

However, it'll definitely be a success. I see a lot of Wii owners upgrading to the 360 in the coming months.



Recently Completed: 
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Doobie_wop on 06 October 2010
Mr Puggsly said:

The 360 has been a success without Kinect, it will contineu to be successful regardless how Kinect performs.

However, it'll definitely be a success. I see a lot of Wii owners upgrading to the 360 in the coming months.


Why?



Bet with Conegamer and AussieGecko that the PS3 will have more exclusives in 2011 than the Wii or 360... or something.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3879752

Mr Puggsly on 06 October 2010
Doobie_wop said:
Mr Puggsly said:

The 360 has been a success without Kinect, it will contineu to be successful regardless how Kinect performs.

However, it'll definitely be a success. I see a lot of Wii owners upgrading to the 360 in the coming months.


Why?

The 4GB Console with Kinect and game is only $299.

Also... kids like new shit. Wii is gettin' old.

On top of that! HD consoles are picking up steam, Wii owners are likely looking else where.



Recently Completed: 
River City: Rival Showdown for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

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DirtyP2002 on 06 October 2010
Mr Puggsly said:
Doobie_wop said:
Mr Puggsly said:

The 360 has been a success without Kinect, it will contineu to be successful regardless how Kinect performs.

However, it'll definitely be a success. I see a lot of Wii owners upgrading to the 360 in the coming months.


Why?

The 4GB Console with Kinect and game is only $299.

Also... kids like new shit. Wii is gettin' old.

On top of that! HD consoles are picking up steam, Wii owners are likely looking else where.


First: I can't see it fail badly if they market it right. And MS does good marketing (except for Alan Wake). 

The Xbox 360 reached 50 million users without Kinect and will make its way to at least another 10 million users no matter how Kinect performs.

MS will re-organize their resources in a different way. Maybe focusing on a new console, maybe secure more exclusive games and maybe add even more features to Xbox Live. Who knows!?

I think Move did not take the world by storm either, so the situation might just stay the way it is now.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

Doobie_wop on 06 October 2010
Mr Puggsly said:
Doobie_wop said:
Mr Puggsly said:

The 360 has been a success without Kinect, it will contineu to be successful regardless how Kinect performs.

However, it'll definitely be a success. I see a lot of Wii owners upgrading to the 360 in the coming months.


Why?

The 4GB Console with Kinect and game is only $299.

Also... kids like new shit. Wii is gettin' old.

On top of that! HD consoles are picking up steam, Wii owners are likely looking else where.

I'm not saying some won't make the jump, but the audience this is aimed at is the same audience that probably had only a PS1 for nearly 10 years before even upgrading. $299 with a bunch of games isn't exactly cheap and outside of Dance Central, it doesn't seem to have that killer app appeal. I don't like the Wii, but I'll be the first to admit that it was Nintendo's games that drove the system and not the system that drove the games. I also don't think the 3DS will do gang busters in it's first year, because people will still be buying the cheap and popular DS.



Bet with Conegamer and AussieGecko that the PS3 will have more exclusives in 2011 than the Wii or 360... or something.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3879752

thx1139 on 06 October 2010

1st off you present recommendations as requirements (space between you and Kinect sensor).  Secondly you take troubleshooting from the Kinect manual and claim they are requirements. Lets do that with the Wii and the Move manuals shall we.

From the Wii Troubleshooting section:

Check for interference from infra-red light sources, such as candles, sunlight, fireplaces, and stoves.
Radio frequency interference may cause the Wii Remote to work erratically. Check for wireless devices such as cordless phones, wireless computer keyboards or mice, or other similar devices, and move or turn them off.

You cant play the Wii in a room with candles, sunlight, fireplaces or stoves. Do not play the Wii where other wireless devices may be in use.


Move:

The motion controller may not be detected correctly if it is used in a location where the lighting is too bright or if it is exposed to direct sunlight. Check that the motion controller is not being used or placed near magnetic sources. When using the motion controller, avoid holding the controller closer than 20 cm from the face or eyes.

You cannot play the Move in a room with sunlight or have lights turned on.  Make sure the room has no magnet in it from items such as speakers and finally keep the controller away from your eyes so you dont burn your eyes out kid.

 

Finally I am sure MS would be embarassed and some heads would roll if Kinect fails, but it wont.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

milkyjoe on 06 October 2010

I don't get why people are using the distance from the TV as a stick to beat Kinect with. Every time I load up Sports Champions it tells me to be 8ft away from my TV...



VGChartz

thx1139 on 06 October 2010
milkyjoe said:

I don't get why people are using the distance from the TV as a stick to beat Kinect with. Every time I load up Sports Champions it tells me to be 8ft away from my TV...


Thats different that is Sony feet and Sony feet is OK.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.