What will happen to 360 if Kinect fails?

[Killiana1a]

Doobie_wop said:

Killiana1a said:

You would have to ask the same question regarding the failure of the Virtual Boy and Nintendo. Virtual Boy was released in 1995, a year before the release of the Nintendo 64, and it did not seem to hit Nintendo hard, if at all when they discontinued a year later.

What failed with the Virtual Boy was the entire concept of a system where you look through goggles to play games. If Kinect fails, it will confirm suspicions that the mass market is not ready for a controller-less video gaming experience.

The concepts fail, the companies take the financial hit, and the industry goes on as usual. If anything, who will hurt most is those within Microsoft who envisioned Kinect, those who are putting their resumes on the line with Kinect, and those VPs who have supported Kinect tooth and nail.

I don't think it will hit Microsoft's hardware sales, it will definitely destroy hardware projections based on the success of Kinect. If anything, the ultimate good may arise out of the failure of Kinect via Microsoft getting more serious on 1st party games and developing new IPs to compete.

Basically, if Kinect fails I will not be surprised if Microsoft counters with a flurry of 1st party software. If Kinect succeeds or muddles the ground just above Kinect, then Microsoft will focus on software development for it and tweak it for future console generations.

Microsoft are pouring much more money into Kinect than Nintendo ever did with the Virtual Boy. The R&D has been rumoured to be extremely high and the Microsoft PR is saying that it's marketing budget is massive. It also doesn't help that they might not be making much (if any) profit at launch. I think they might have spent so much money, that if Kinect does fail, Microsoft are probably going to try it again with their next console. They can't let all that investment go to waste and I can see them taking it all in again, working on it more and then making it a built in feature with their next console. Microsoft has a lot of money to spend, but if their investors are pissed off when the console is actually doing well and making a profit, I can't imagine they'd be to happy if more money is being thrown at Microsoft Game Studios after a bad launch.

I agree. I overlooked the massive amounts of money going into it, which would make sense to learn from your failure, take it back into the workshop, tweak it, and re-release it.

As for the investors, there are millions of them, of which I cannot name the top investors off the top of my head. By top, I mean holding more than a 5-10% stake in Microsoft stock. Again, you are right because most investors could care less about the product and would pull their money if they could see a financial boondoggle 10 years in the making.

That being said, it does not make sense to revive a failed product. If Kinect is rejected because like the Virtual Boy, it was ages ahead of it's time, then why would consumers warm up to it a year or four later?

I think the success of Kinect is a referendum on controller-less gaming. Unlike Move and Wii, Microsoft is aiming for the next level here. With these stakes, you either succeed spectacularly or fail just the same. I have a hard time seeing investors pour money into Microsoft for Kinect 2.0 if Kinect 1.0 fails to reach the minimum sales projections.