Holiday 2012 will be when we see a new home system from Nintendo, they'll try to follow their software dev pattern from DS -> Wii with the 3DS -> N6 transistion.
| Smashchu2 said: The Gamecube had little to no content. They were left with Pikmin and Luigi's Mansion, both games that were unproven and Smash Brothers. The Gamecube realied on Smash brothers though most of it's life. The Gamecube was dead in the water to begin with. You are thinking too much about the launch date. Launch dates only matter relative to the competition. If Sony has no plans to release a PS4, then Nintendo can wait it out. The 3DS is getting far and beyond the most attention. Nintendo is making 7 games right now for it, and may have more they have not announced yet in typical Nintendo fashion). The DS also had a lot of titles being develoed, as did the Wii. Title move systems. There is no way around this. Nintendo will not have enough backing for a Wii 2 in 2011 both with 3DS games (which will, by far, take up most of Nintendo's attention) and games already coming out on the Wii. Nintendo isn't going to rush to the next generation like a fool. The only way Nintendo will jump on the next console is if they preseve that a compeitor will, which neither of them will (maybe Microsoft, but Nintendo ignores them most of the time). I bolded that line as it misses how console launches are done. In order for Nintendo to seemlessly jump into the next cycle, they must have games. This is why they wont launch in 2011 because they will not be able to pool enough resources and risk more by jeprodizing either the 3DS or the Wii 2. As of right now, there is no threat of consumers going to the competition becuase they are not going to buy PS3s or 360s (50% of Wii owners are females who will not buy the HD systems). So I see no firm reason Nintendo should launch in 2011. Every time I hear people say that, they relate it to the Gamecube, one of Nintendo greatest failures ignoring the DS/Wii schedule. |
Within it's first six months GameCube had Luigi's Mansion, Pikmin, Wave Race BS, Smash Melee, NBA Courtside 2002, Cubivore and Animal Crossing. That's seven 1st party games in six months. And it had a TON of 3rd party games in the same period (Monkey Ball, SA2Battle, Tony Hawk 3, Crazy Taxi, Madden, NBA 2K2, SSX Tricky, FIFA, Rogue Leader, etc, etc). It actually had 24 distinct games release in 2001 alone, that's "little to no content"?
Nintendo's pretty much done with DS, past this year they actually don't have any new titles announced (just localizations). They're on the downslope with Wii as well, with just Zelda and Mario Sports for new titles in 2011, possibly with Pikmin 3 and Wii Relax... provided those don't just move to Wii 2.
Nintendo houses multiple internal game development studios (EAD, SPD, NSD, SDD, NST, EAD Tokyo) with a cumulative development staff of over 1000 people. This doesn't include 1st party satellite studios (Retro, Brownie Brown, Monolith, NdCube, IntSys, HAL, Project Sora, Genius Sonority, Creatures, Game Freak) or the various close 3rd party development partners they routinely work with (Camelot, Skip, Noise, Agenda, Ambrella, Paon, Artoon, Mindware, Alphadream, Good Feel, Treasure, Next Level, Monster Games, Headstrong, Arika, Q-Games, G-rounding, Team Ninja, Sandlot, Mistwalker, Mitchell, Jupiter, Vitei, Chunsoft, Grezzo, iNiS, 8ing, NowPro, SE Osaka, Tose, indieszero, Aki/Syn Sophia, RED, etc, etc). And all this is *just* for 1st party games.
Manpower pretty readily isn't an issue, focus isn't an issue (DS is done, Wii is almost done), and I'm at a bit of loss as to how a five year cycle is "rushing like a fool"? Forget GameCube, the reason Nintendo will launch sooner rather than later is what you see with Wii today... 3rd parties were consolidated elsewhere early on this gen, and despite Wii's overwhelming success, there was little to no shift to the platform. And now, as a result, the platform is slowing earlier than it should, selling less software than it could, and ultimately making Nintendo less money. Due to the unique circumstances this gen as well, Nintendo's competitors are hitting their stride later on, enjoying the vast bulk of publisher support, and thanks to higher specs are comparably "futureproofed" allowing them to maintain the same hardware with adapted (and directly Wii-competitive) control schemes in place of the usual next cycle transition. Basically, Nintendo's competitors are gaining ground and they've removed Wii's differentiator (on paper) while maintaining their own (network infrastructure, HD, Blue-ray, etc).
The other main indicator Nintendo will launch in 2011 is Japan. Like it or not, Nintendo's still a Japanese company and they invariably look to the home market first. And at home, Wii is past the point of no return, it desperately needs content, needs interest, but really probably just needs a successor. There's really no denying, Japan is a problem for Wii, and a problem Nintendo hasn't seemed able to right themselves.
The advantages for a 2011 launch seem pretty obvious too. It allows Nintendo to suddenly be included in the HD multiplatform development priority, ensuring a glut of available 3rd party content will be ready from day one, and ensuring 3rd parties are consolidated on their machine early and build the sort of software market they need for sustained support. The other side of this, is that it potentially lengthens 360/PS3's cycle, and could stall or impede their next generation platforms if they're traditional "generation" spec upgrades. It's basically win:win for Nintendo, they'll get all the games now, and they'll hold back MS/Sony's next cycle. Transitioning while Wii is on a "high" seems key too, as they'll want to present as much of a "sure thing" marketwise to get 3rd parties on board ground up, and ensure a more diverse and inclusive software market builds than what we saw with Wii. This is their exact gameplan with 3DS, they'll repeat it for Wii2. the competitive advantages of launching early can't really be overstated, especially given the position Nintendo's fast finding themselves in. If you really see "no firm reason that Nintendo should launch in 2011" I'd suggest you open your eyes for a change...
it be stupid move anyway.
They need to get 3DS off to an awesome launch so when a new PSP comes out its lead will be to great.
jarrod said:
It really is Nintendo's game to lose (so to speak), and drawing things out definitely hurts their chances. A 2012 (or later) Wii 2 launch just seems so much more risky than a 2011 Wii 2, I'm surprised people are really pushing that line? For the Wii 2 "hook", I expect the control interface to remain largely similar (like DS to 3DS), but more and more I'm really think the biofeedback aspect of the Vitality Sensor will be integrated directly (and VS for Wii scrapped), and pushed hard as a new differentiator. I'd also expect HD/3D support, Blu-ray based media, improved online infrastructure (maybe with some novel aspects like 3DS is supposedly getting), Wii backwards compatibility (but not GC, no controller/memory card ports for it) and probably a 4GB flash drive (yes, no HDD and only 4GB, this is Nintendo after all). And Virtual Console will probably get a bit of an upgrade with more advanced systems added (GC, DC, Saturn, 3DO, etc) and likely an upgrade path to transfer Wii 1 purchases over. The spec jump will probably be comparable with going from DS/PSP/3DS to Wii/PS3/Wii2... it'll encourage Wii2 get included in the multiplatform 3rd party mindset from day one, and also likely help discourage MS/Sony from necessarily rushing their next systems into the cycle (why bother if you're still getting all the games and finally making money?). With this scenario, PS4/XB3 could be held back to 2014 or later even, giving Sony and MS time actually try and recoup on their massive losses this gen... the only real incentive for one or the other jumping in sooner would be if Wii2 starts squeezing one or the other out in terms of multiplatform publisher support (possibly 360 due to interface, or PS3 due to market position). And honestly, putting together a PS3-plus spec system a year from now for $250 isn't really that tough a proposition, and it'll likely be going up against a $199 PS3 and $149 360 anyway. |
This. Would be my dream console.
You forgot one thing though- good 3rd party support (akin to the 3DS). Then it'll be serious time.
Meh ... forget about it Nintendo will not upgrade the Wii they will simply release a new console in 2012.
GO PATS! 2012 THE YEAR OF NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS'S 4TH SUPER BOWL!
A patriot to the end. GO PATS!
Now playing> THE LAST STORY (Wii) Best RPG I EVER PLAYED. *-*
Nintendo could u please just take my money and give me back my 3DS?!
This generation has just been so fascinating in terms of how the market has changed and such...in many ways it's kind of mind-boggling. I'm just seriously wondering if 3rd parties would come to a new Nintendo console in a big way? And I'm incredibly curious to see how Nintendo 'evolves' the Wii idea going forward. The next 'gen' will be hopefully just as interesting as this one has been so far. I was thinking that maybe Nintendo would release a new console around 2012 and leaving the Wii on the market for real cheap ($129/$99) to give consumers a choice, which might keep HD sales at bay while they try to establish a base on the new console? I dunno. I think in general there's still too many unknowns. I think Nintendo will still launch first for the next gen, but I think the timetable is going to depend on how well Kinect & Move do and if they seriously inject new life into the X360 and PS3 or not, for one thing...
Bah!
I think that there could be an upgrade to the Wii. Just not a WiiHD because, really, that would be a waste of time by now.
What i would like to see is a Wii redesign. Not to shrink it but to give it a new, more stylised look to make it more atractive.
But besides the cosmetic operation, it should also come with a hard-drive - like the new Xbox 360 arcade - and the new Wii Remote - which i think didn`t just show up for no reason, but it could be. There could probably be more changes, but i can`t think of anything more.
And the last change would be an online service that could match Xbox 360 and PS3`s (no friend codes, as so many complain), while keeping it attractive to "casual gamers".
With a built in hard-drive it would be easier to download games or demos and movies (netflix?).
But why would be this important?
Wii might have what, 1-2 years left? Even if Kinect and Move succeed Wii will still hang-on simply because, well, it`s Wii. Wii is "the" console of this generation, as PS2 was "the" console of last generation and that won`t change.
But there is something that Nintendo should fear and that is that although Wii is/was pretty big, the casual market knows no loyalty and that means that sooner or later Nintendo`s image will fade with time. And who`s gonna save them? The core gamers.
So, i think that a new Wii with a Hard-Drive, a better remote to match the Kinect and Move (well, a better appealing one), better online service and chance to download games/demos would start something that Nintendo WILL do next generation: attract core gamers. Which Nintendo is already trying to do with 3DS (see games announced).
A change in philosophy NOW could lead them safely into next generation. That`s why a change, in some degree, would only benefit Nintendo in the long term as i also believe that 3rd parties could be attracted to this as well.
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