| Smashchu2 said: The Gamecube had little to no content. They were left with Pikmin and Luigi's Mansion, both games that were unproven and Smash Brothers. The Gamecube realied on Smash brothers though most of it's life. The Gamecube was dead in the water to begin with. You are thinking too much about the launch date. Launch dates only matter relative to the competition. If Sony has no plans to release a PS4, then Nintendo can wait it out. The 3DS is getting far and beyond the most attention. Nintendo is making 7 games right now for it, and may have more they have not announced yet in typical Nintendo fashion). The DS also had a lot of titles being develoed, as did the Wii. Title move systems. There is no way around this. Nintendo will not have enough backing for a Wii 2 in 2011 both with 3DS games (which will, by far, take up most of Nintendo's attention) and games already coming out on the Wii. Nintendo isn't going to rush to the next generation like a fool. The only way Nintendo will jump on the next console is if they preseve that a compeitor will, which neither of them will (maybe Microsoft, but Nintendo ignores them most of the time). I bolded that line as it misses how console launches are done. In order for Nintendo to seemlessly jump into the next cycle, they must have games. This is why they wont launch in 2011 because they will not be able to pool enough resources and risk more by jeprodizing either the 3DS or the Wii 2. As of right now, there is no threat of consumers going to the competition becuase they are not going to buy PS3s or 360s (50% of Wii owners are females who will not buy the HD systems). So I see no firm reason Nintendo should launch in 2011. Every time I hear people say that, they relate it to the Gamecube, one of Nintendo greatest failures ignoring the DS/Wii schedule. |
Within it's first six months GameCube had Luigi's Mansion, Pikmin, Wave Race BS, Smash Melee, NBA Courtside 2002, Cubivore and Animal Crossing. That's seven 1st party games in six months. And it had a TON of 3rd party games in the same period (Monkey Ball, SA2Battle, Tony Hawk 3, Crazy Taxi, Madden, NBA 2K2, SSX Tricky, FIFA, Rogue Leader, etc, etc). It actually had 24 distinct games release in 2001 alone, that's "little to no content"?
Nintendo's pretty much done with DS, past this year they actually don't have any new titles announced (just localizations). They're on the downslope with Wii as well, with just Zelda and Mario Sports for new titles in 2011, possibly with Pikmin 3 and Wii Relax... provided those don't just move to Wii 2.
Nintendo houses multiple internal game development studios (EAD, SPD, NSD, SDD, NST, EAD Tokyo) with a cumulative development staff of over 1000 people. This doesn't include 1st party satellite studios (Retro, Brownie Brown, Monolith, NdCube, IntSys, HAL, Project Sora, Genius Sonority, Creatures, Game Freak) or the various close 3rd party development partners they routinely work with (Camelot, Skip, Noise, Agenda, Ambrella, Paon, Artoon, Mindware, Alphadream, Good Feel, Treasure, Next Level, Monster Games, Headstrong, Arika, Q-Games, G-rounding, Team Ninja, Sandlot, Mistwalker, Mitchell, Jupiter, Vitei, Chunsoft, Grezzo, iNiS, 8ing, NowPro, SE Osaka, Tose, indieszero, Aki/Syn Sophia, RED, etc, etc). And all this is *just* for 1st party games.
Manpower pretty readily isn't an issue, focus isn't an issue (DS is done, Wii is almost done), and I'm at a bit of loss as to how a five year cycle is "rushing like a fool"? Forget GameCube, the reason Nintendo will launch sooner rather than later is what you see with Wii today... 3rd parties were consolidated elsewhere early on this gen, and despite Wii's overwhelming success, there was little to no shift to the platform. And now, as a result, the platform is slowing earlier than it should, selling less software than it could, and ultimately making Nintendo less money. Due to the unique circumstances this gen as well, Nintendo's competitors are hitting their stride later on, enjoying the vast bulk of publisher support, and thanks to higher specs are comparably "futureproofed" allowing them to maintain the same hardware with adapted (and directly Wii-competitive) control schemes in place of the usual next cycle transition. Basically, Nintendo's competitors are gaining ground and they've removed Wii's differentiator (on paper) while maintaining their own (network infrastructure, HD, Blue-ray, etc).
The other main indicator Nintendo will launch in 2011 is Japan. Like it or not, Nintendo's still a Japanese company and they invariably look to the home market first. And at home, Wii is past the point of no return, it desperately needs content, needs interest, but really probably just needs a successor. There's really no denying, Japan is a problem for Wii, and a problem Nintendo hasn't seemed able to right themselves.
The advantages for a 2011 launch seem pretty obvious too. It allows Nintendo to suddenly be included in the HD multiplatform development priority, ensuring a glut of available 3rd party content will be ready from day one, and ensuring 3rd parties are consolidated on their machine early and build the sort of software market they need for sustained support. The other side of this, is that it potentially lengthens 360/PS3's cycle, and could stall or impede their next generation platforms if they're traditional "generation" spec upgrades. It's basically win:win for Nintendo, they'll get all the games now, and they'll hold back MS/Sony's next cycle. Transitioning while Wii is on a "high" seems key too, as they'll want to present as much of a "sure thing" marketwise to get 3rd parties on board ground up, and ensure a more diverse and inclusive software market builds than what we saw with Wii. This is their exact gameplan with 3DS, they'll repeat it for Wii2. the competitive advantages of launching early can't really be overstated, especially given the position Nintendo's fast finding themselves in. If you really see "no firm reason that Nintendo should launch in 2011" I'd suggest you open your eyes for a change...
