so wait.... you think the ps3 peaked and the 360 didn't?

really? didn't know that.

Gran Turismo 5 is releasing in November in Japan. That isn't really the holiday season over there, its about a month early.

I'm expecting it to open to  at least 400,000 , maybe as much as 500,000 and then to drop off quick in Nov...then build up a bit in Dec / Jan and then drop out of the top thirty in late February. The trick is Sony has already released Gran Turismo 5 Prologue, which will be more than good enough for some people, and Gran Turismo Portable released last year. Beyond that, the PS3 base hasn't really proven it can support huge fanbases in Japan. At the moment, Final Fantasy XIII is behind eight SNES, PS1, and PS2 era Final Fantasy titles in Japan for instance.

What we know right now is this:

Gran Turismo 5 Prologue is at 72% of where Gran Turismo 4 Prologue eventually reached in Japan, 570,000 instead of 790,000. This isn't really an issue of time either - GT5 Prologue has had years to sell as GT4 Prologue did. Its a base issue.

Gran Turismo 4 sold 1.26m in Japan. I don't know that the prologue to prologue transition will be exactly the same as the main game to main game transition, but if it was, you'd expect Gran Turismo 5 to sell about 900,000 units lifetime in Japan, with an opening of 485,000 (vs. 684,000 for GT4). Gran Turismo 4 also sold less than Gran Turismo 3 in Japan, so the pattern of decline seems well established - the dual releases (prologue, main game) all see the Gran Turismos main game sell less than the main games without Prologue in Japan.

Moreover, Gran Turismo 4 Prologue opened to over 200k and provided a 30k hw lift. Gran Turismo 5 Prologue opened to 109k and provided only a 21k lift. Can't really know what GT4 pushed by itself - it released during the peak weak of the 2004-2005 shopping season.

The game that offers the best comparison I believe is Metal Gear Solid 4. That opened to nearly 500,000 on PS3 in Japan in a non-holiday month. PS3 jumped from 11,000 to 77,000 on MGS4 in Japan. Metal Gear Solid 4 also had a console bundle in Japan as Gran Turismo 5 will. PS3 should jump up a 60,000 - 80,000 on Gran Turismo 5 but its just not a Final Fantasy XIII level bump. If PS3 is doing 20,000/week in late October as it is in mid-September you'd only expect GT5 to push PS3 to 90,000 or so ( 70,000), rather than the 120,000 push to 243,000 Final Fantasy XIII provided in December 2009. Essentially, PS3 had four weeks over 100k in Japan between Sept - Dec 2009, and one week of those four (FFXIII week) was over 200k in Dec 2009. This year, PS3 will have probably one or two weeks over 100k in Japan, and no weeks over 200k...and so Oct - Dec will be down, as the FFXIII week was nearly 25% of PS3 sales (243k / 908k) in that quarter of 2009.

In the USA, PS3 will do 250,000 or 300,000 in September 2010, and then 200,000 - 250,000 in October 2010 instead of 320,000 or so. That should set up a down Nov - Dec.

For Europe, GT5 should hold up better than in the USA or Japan but its still probably not enough to create an 'up' Oct - Dec 2010.

I don't really have Move pushing much hardware in 2010, it seems like a 2011 thing really, since its not launching with a Wii Sports game that offers a totally new experience, or a Zelda-like game with millions of fans about to try motion controls.

Yes, but the PS3 peak was natural, and the 360 peak is forced. Naturally after a few years, a console reaches peak popularity, and then people start to loose interest, and those who are interested already own one. PS3's natural peak was 2009, but Sony also released the Slim PS3 at the peak of PS3's popularity, thus it had a very strong year. If the PS3 slim didn't launch, it may have had a split 2009/2010 peak (where 360 would have a split 2008/2009 peak), but it did, and I don't think no matter what Sony does, it will never sell that well again. 360 peaked in 2008 (11.01 million in 2008, and 10.23 million in 2009). If the PS3 Slim were not introduced, the 360 would have probably had fairly equal sales in 2008 and 2009, but regardless it naturally peaked in 2008

Now the 360 is still reasonably popular, without the Slim it would still have had a strong year (I've heard pre-Slim the 360 was selling comparitivly to 2008). It's over the hill, but just. Slim consoles really boost sales, and the 360 popularity is still high enough for the 360 to have peak sales with the Slim effect to assist it.

So yes, I beleive the 360 will peak this year, and the PS3 peaked last year. However this does not imply that I beleive that the PS3's console lifespan will be shoter then the 360's. I think from 2011 and on, sales will be pretty competitive, but never strongly in the favor of one console. I beleive sales are going to start decline, just like the Wii, DS, and PSP.

Anyway this is about the PS3, not the 360.

If you follow console trend patterns, PS3 sales are similar to PSP's. PSP had it's peak year in 2008, and it's about a year and a half older then the PS3. 2009 sales were still strong, and 2010 sales look to be decent. It's gone downhill, and PS3 sales have followed an almost identical trend. Every console stops selling at one point, and I think 2011 numbers for all current home consoles will be down.

As for 2010, PS3 is still up by 1.6 million, but next week was the Slim launch last year, so your going to see that difference dissapear well before halloween. It would be entirely up to LBP2 and GT5 to push November and December sales up to 2009 levels, but no matter how good GT5 is, it's not going to match the sales of a console redesign and price cut. So nevermind 15 million, the PS3 won't get 12. 11.01 million, 360's highest prior sales is possible, but even then I think it would just barely do it, if it does.

Gran Turismo 5 is releasing in November in Japan. That isn't really the holiday season over there, its about a month early.

I'm expecting it to open to  at least 400,000 , maybe as much as 500,000 and then to drop off quick in Nov...then build up a bit in Dec / Jan and then drop out of the top thirty in late February. The trick is Sony has already released Gran Turismo 5 Prologue, which will be more than good enough for some people, and Gran Turismo Portable released last year. Beyond that, the PS3 base hasn't really proven it can support huge fanbases in Japan. At the moment, Final Fantasy XIII is behind eight SNES, PS1, and PS2 era Final Fantasy titles in Japan for instance.

What we know right now is this:

Gran Turismo 5 Prologue is at 72% of where Gran Turismo 4 Prologue eventually reached in Japan, 570,000 instead of 790,000. This isn't really an issue of time either - GT5 Prologue has had years to sell as GT4 Prologue did. Its a base issue.

Gran Turismo 4 sold 1.26m in Japan. I don't know that the prologue to prologue transition will be exactly the same as the main game to main game transition, but if it was, you'd expect Gran Turismo 5 to sell about 900,000 units lifetime in Japan, with an opening of 485,000 (vs. 684,000 for GT4). Gran Turismo 4 also sold less than Gran Turismo 3 in Japan, so the pattern of decline seems well established - the dual releases (prologue, main game) all see the Gran Turismos main game sell less than the main games without Prologue in Japan.

Moreover, Gran Turismo 4 Prologue opened to over 200k and provided a 30k hw lift. Gran Turismo 5 Prologue opened to 109k and provided only a 21k lift. Can't really know what GT4 pushed by itself - it released during the peak weak of the 2004-2005 shopping season.

The game that offers the best comparison I believe is Metal Gear Solid 4. That opened to nearly 500,000 on PS3 in Japan in a non-holiday month. PS3 jumped from 11,000 to 77,000 on MGS4 in Japan. Metal Gear Solid 4 also had a console bundle in Japan as Gran Turismo 5 will. PS3 should jump up a 60,000 - 80,000 on Gran Turismo 5 but its just not a Final Fantasy XIII level bump. If PS3 is doing 20,000/week in late October as it is in mid-September you'd only expect GT5 to push PS3 to 90,000 or so ( 70,000), rather than the 120,000 push to 243,000 Final Fantasy XIII provided in December 2009. Essentially, PS3 had four weeks over 100k in Japan between Sept - Dec 2009, and one week of those four (FFXIII week) was over 200k in Dec 2009. This year, PS3 will have probably one or two weeks over 100k in Japan, and no weeks over 200k...and so Oct - Dec will be down, as the FFXIII week was nearly 25% of PS3 sales (243k / 908k) in that quarter of 2009.

In the USA, PS3 will do 250,000 or 300,000 in September 2010, and then 200,000 - 250,000 in October 2010 instead of 320,000 or so. That should set up a down Nov - Dec.

For Europe, GT5 should hold up better than in the USA or Japan but its still probably not enough to create an 'up' Oct - Dec 2010.

I don't really have Move pushing much hardware in 2010, it seems like a 2011 thing really, since its not launching with a Wii Sports game that offers a totally new experience, or a Zelda-like game with millions of fans about to try motion controls.

 ummm you wanna see consumers losing interest, look at the 360 sales prior to the slim launch, dropped below 90k, down YoY for the entire year, 08 had the 199 (a price point you think will do nothing for ps3) arcade models 

360s isn't helping the 360 boost, it IS the 360 boost, that coupled with a clearance of the older models, you've got to be kidding me bro, without that slim launch 360 would still be last place in sales and the gap would be probably sub 3 million, also if you look at software sales you can also get a clear description of who's buying these 360's, severely over estimating the 360 and severely underestimating the ps3.

these next few years are gonna be a ball

oh and I see you conveniently left out the Move, but that's a different discussion 

I don't beleive the PS Move will push many consoles, I think most consumers interested in the Move already have a PS3 and are looking for a way to further improve the experience for games like Killzone 3. Most articles I read, even VGChartz themselves don't expect Move to push many consoles. Thats why I left it out.

Before the PS3 Slim was released, the 360 had a record lead in terms of a sales difference with the PS3, and sales were in favor of the 360 throught all of 2009 until the Slim PS3 was released. Then all of a sudden PS3 regains 3.7 million units of that lead. Not one time before August 2009 did either console make such a drastic lead in sales over the other console in a short period of time. The 360 did gain 2.2 million in fall of 2008, and the PS3 gained 1 million from September 2007-September 2008. Those were the biggest changes.

YoY PS3 is up from 2009, but this is only because the Slim Effect was still pushing consoles (That PS3 slim basically made the 360 look obsolete). Now that the 360 Slim is out, and MS is boosting one of their strongest fall line-ups, I think the competition may hurt Sony this fall, thus having sales drop from 2009 levels.

You mentioned that before the 360 Slim boost 360 sales dropped below 90k, look at PS3 sales before the PS3 Slim. They were also 90k weekly, or below in some instances.

You see if neither manufacturer released a Slim model, 360 would probably be outselling the PS3 right now.

Last year, what fall lineup did PS3 have, Uncharted 2, God of War Collection, Ratchet & Clank, Demon Souls, Assassin's Creed 2, and Modern Warfare 2 right? Sony has had a much stronger line-up in past years and yet it was outsold by the 360 (looking at 2008).

On going on, but essentially my comment was that 2009 was Sony's peak year with the PS3. PS3 sales were never above 10 million before that, and they only jumped because of the PS3 Slim. Yes the PS3 Slim effect boosted sales until June 2010, but ever since then the 360 Slim has been taking the spotlight. The PS3 will not have as strong of a 2010 for the same reason the 360 had a reletivly weak 2009.

The 360 had a weak 2009 (compred to 2008) because a lot of it sales were lost to the PS3 Slim. If it weren't for the PS3 Slim, both consoles would have had peak years, but more in the lines of 11.5-12 million for the 360 and 10.5-11 million for the PS3.

Also the 360 Slim was the reason for the 360 boost prior to Halo, but now that Fall 2010 is kicking in, it's not going to be the only boost in sales. Kinect will push at least 500k worth of consoles, and then there is Halo 3, Fable 3, and basically the same third party lineup from 2008 whne the 360 had a strong fall. With the 360 already 1.1-.17 million units ahead YoY from 2009, and 2008 respectivly, and one of the strongest fall line-ups, the 360 should have a peak year in excess of 12 million, maybe even 13 million consoles. This will definatly hurt PS3 sales for 2010.

So yes although the PS3 Slim is ahead YoY by about 1.4 million units, most of that lead was due to a very strong Spring Line-up and the ongoing PS3 Slim boost. Now the PS3 has a reletivly weak fall (compared to past PS3 fall line-ups), the spotlight for gaming is on Microsoft, and I have a feeling Nintendo will pull some trick, maybe a price drop? PS3 sales will be down Year on Year (YoY) every week except for maybe the week GT5 comes out, and VGChartz has said so in the past before too.

These next few years will mark the decline in popularity for all consoles, so I think the PS3 is finished with any more 12 Plus million years.