Michael-5 said:
Yes, but the PS3 peak was natural, and the 360 peak is forced. Naturally after a few years, a console reaches peak popularity, and then people start to loose interest, and those who are interested already own one. PS3's natural peak was 2009, but Sony also released the Slim PS3 at the peak of PS3's popularity, thus it had a very strong year. If the PS3 slim didn't launch, it may have had a split 2009/2010 peak (where 360 would have a split 2008/2009 peak), but it did, and I don't think no matter what Sony does, it will never sell that well again. 360 peaked in 2008 (11.01 million in 2008, and 10.23 million in 2009). If the PS3 Slim were not introduced, the 360 would have probably had fairly equal sales in 2008 and 2009, but regardless it naturally peaked in 2008 Now the 360 is still reasonably popular, without the Slim it would still have had a strong year (I've heard pre-Slim the 360 was selling comparitivly to 2008). It's over the hill, but just. Slim consoles really boost sales, and the 360 popularity is still high enough for the 360 to have peak sales with the Slim effect to assist it. So yes, I beleive the 360 will peak this year, and the PS3 peaked last year. However this does not imply that I beleive that the PS3's console lifespan will be shoter then the 360's. I think from 2011 and on, sales will be pretty competitive, but never strongly in the favor of one console. I beleive sales are going to start decline, just like the Wii, DS, and PSP. Anyway this is about the PS3, not the 360. If you follow console trend patterns, PS3 sales are similar to PSP's. PSP had it's peak year in 2008, and it's about a year and a half older then the PS3. 2009 sales were still strong, and 2010 sales look to be decent. It's gone downhill, and PS3 sales have followed an almost identical trend. Every console stops selling at one point, and I think 2011 numbers for all current home consoles will be down. As for 2010, PS3 is still up by 1.6 million, but next week was the Slim launch last year, so your going to see that difference dissapear well before halloween. It would be entirely up to LBP2 and GT5 to push November and December sales up to 2009 levels, but no matter how good GT5 is, it's not going to match the sales of a console redesign and price cut. So nevermind 15 million, the PS3 won't get 12. 11.01 million, 360's highest prior sales is possible, but even then I think it would just barely do it, if it does. |
ummm you wanna see consumers losing interest, look at the 360 sales prior to the slim launch, dropped below 90k, down YoY for the entire year, 08 had the 199 (a price point you think will do nothing for ps3) arcade models
360s isn't helping the 360 boost, it IS the 360 boost, that coupled with a clearance of the older models, you've got to be kidding me bro, without that slim launch 360 would still be last place in sales and the gap would be probably sub 3 million, also if you look at software sales you can also get a clear description of who's buying these 360's, severely over estimating the 360 and severely underestimating the ps3.
these next few years are gonna be a ball
oh and I see you conveniently left out the Move, but that's a different discussion
