@Zucas

You really see Wii Music as a title which can hit 10 million? It seems like a pretty niche product and I doubt it would appeal to the Guitar Hero crowd. I think the upper-limit of this title is maybe 2 million WW, if that.

 

 

mrstickball said: I hate to say it, but the argument "the Wii has a much higher install base for units" argument doesn't really work. Merely because SMG is a very Nintendo-Oriented game. It won't sell to the droves that are typically buying the Wii (they buy it for the more casual fare). Zelda: Twilight Princess has done "mediocre" considering the absolutely insane install base. If Zelda: TP can only manage ~4m units on the Wii, why should SMG sell 2.5x or more, higher?

 I don't see why you would say this about Zelda: TP. The game has an attach rate of nearly 25%, which is rare for any game these days (I see Halo 3's is higher) but TP sales were cannibalized by its GameCube counterpart. If you add the two together, TP is the third highest-selling game in the Zelda series.. with over 5 million sold altogether and still moving ~25k a week over a year after its release, I'd say the sales for Zelda TP are a bit better than mediocre.

 

mrstickball said: Zelda: Twilight Princess has done "mediocre" considering the absolutely insane install base. If Zelda: TP can only manage ~4m units on the Wii, why should SMG sell 2.5x or more, higher?

I'm sorry, mrstickball, but I can't let that comment slide. How can you possibly say that Twilight Princess has seen "mediocre" sales? Here's the total list of all games from this current generation that have sold better:

	Halo 3	Microsoft	0.09	4.25	1.48	5.82
	Gears Of War	Microsoft	0.08	3.05	1.62	4.75

The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess

Nintendo

0.56

2.10

1.18

3.84

That's it (I'm leaving aside Wii Sports and Wii Play for obvious reasons). I should add that Mario Party at 3.11m is the only game within even ONE MILLION sales of Twilight Princess. The next closest 360 game is Oblivion, at 2.21m. Twilight Princess is still charting and can probably expect another 500k before the end of its lifetime, more if it's re-released at a budget price. And again, we're not even factoring in the 1.3m additional sales that Twilight Princess has done on the Gamecube.

It's perfectly fair to say that Halo 3 will sell more copies than Mario Galaxy. But how can the #3 best selling game on ANY platform in this current generation possibly be described as having mediocre sales?

damkira said: mrstickball said: I hate to say it, but the argument "the Wii has a much higher install base for units" argument doesn't really work. Merely because SMG is a very Nintendo-Oriented game. It won't sell to the droves that are typically buying the Wii (they buy it for the more casual fare). Zelda: Twilight Princess has done "mediocre" considering the absolutely insane install base. If Zelda: TP can only manage ~4m units on the Wii, why should SMG sell 2.5x or more, higher?  I don't see why you would say this about Zelda: TP. The game has an attach rate of nearly 25%, which is rare for any game these days (I see Halo 3's is higher) but TP sales were cannibalized by its GameCube counterpart. If you add the two together, TP is the third highest-selling game in the Zelda series.. with over 5 million sold altogether and still moving ~25k a week over a year after its release, I'd say the sales for Zelda TP are a bit better than mediocre.

I agree. I also agree with others who pointed out that Zelda, while highly prestigious, is much less "mainstream" than Mario. You ought to know that Mario is about as world-famous as Mickey Mouse. I think that might influence its popularity with casual gamers.

Also -- and I can't believe I didn't see this earlier almost as much as I can't believe you said it -- you seem to be confusing present install base with future install base! Even Halo 3 sales, incredibly front-loaded game that it is, will benefit from millions of future 360 buyers. The Wii will have at least three or four times as many millions of future buyers, and Galaxy is showing signs of having great legs. How do you figure these two facts will not combine to overcome Halo 3's sales?

Final-Fan said: Melissa said: It depends on how the demographics for this gen of consoles pans out. If you look at game ownership as a bell curve by age, you're going to see a gradual slope upwards until about 20, and then a steep drop-off after 25 or so. Your center around that peak is more likely to buy Halo. Everyone else is more likely to buy Mario. Now, it's all but a given that the entire curve will be more even this generation, which bodes well for SMG, but because "peak" players are more likely to buy Halo than "tail" players are likely to buy SMG (for the casual gamer, there is no "must have" game), the curve has to even out a lot for relatively little headway. A similar issue is the point that Mario is currently building up from a low, where (and this is my opinion) Halo has peaked already, and will in all likelyhood not be as defining a franchise as it was last generation. It's the "ascent vs. decline" issue. I actually think this one is more telling. Halo is a strong franchise and won't be falling too much from aforementioned peak, but Mario has the possibility to be as popular as the franchise ever was, which could imply the best-selling game of this generation. I give it to SMG. (emphasis added) http://www.theesa.com/facts/top_10_facts.php 3. The average game player is 33 years old and has been playing games for 12 years. So I'm going to go ahead and say you're wrong there.

 A) looking at the rest of those stats, it looks like they're including PC, and possibly even internet-based (i.e., flash) games, whereas I'm talking only about consoles

B) the old-side tail stretches far longer than the young-side tail, so in effect you're chopping a large demographic into smaller measureable pieces.  If you've got, using a simple example, 10 kids who are 10 years old, and then one person for each year between 35 and 50, your *average* is still 31.2.  A steep drop-off doesn't mean the numbers fade into nonexistence.  Your "younger than 20" group probably only accounts for 15 year units, but your "older than 25" group might account for up to 35 year units, or more if rumors of 70-year old Wii buyers end up being right.  Your average year unit in "+25" might have half as many people in it as your "-20," and still pull your average total age well above 25.  Looked at graphically, this would be considered a "gradual slope upwards" and a "steep drop-off"

 

So I'm going to go ahead and say you're an ignorant moron who jumps at tidbits of information instead of taking all the facts into account. 

Jackass.

Melissa said: Final-Fan said: Melissa said: It depends on how the demographics for this gen of consoles pans out. If you look at game ownership as a bell curve by age, you're going to see a gradual slope upwards until about 20, and then a steep drop-off after 25 or so. Your center around that peak is more likely to buy Halo. Everyone else is more likely to buy Mario. Now, it's all but a given that the entire curve will be more even this generation, which bodes well for SMG, but because "peak" players are more likely to buy Halo than "tail" players are likely to buy SMG (for the casual gamer, there is no "must have" game), the curve has to even out a lot for relatively little headway. A similar issue is the point that Mario is currently building up from a low, where (and this is my opinion) Halo has peaked already, and will in all likelyhood not be as defining a franchise as it was last generation. It's the "ascent vs. decline" issue. I actually think this one is more telling. Halo is a strong franchise and won't be falling too much from aforementioned peak, but Mario has the possibility to be as popular as the franchise ever was, which could imply the best-selling game of this generation. I give it to SMG. (emphasis added) http://www.theesa.com/facts/top_10_facts.php 3. The average game player is 33 years old and has been playing games for 12 years. So I'm going to go ahead and say you're wrong there.  A) looking at the rest of those stats, it looks like they're including PC, and possibly even internet-based (i.e., flash) games, whereas I'm talking only about consoles B) the old-side tail stretches far longer than the young-side tail, so in effect you're chopping a large demographic into smaller measureable pieces.  If you've got, using a simple example, 10 kids who are 10 years old, and then one person for each year between 35 and 50, your *average* is still 31.2.  A steep drop-off doesn't mean the numbers fade into nonexistence.  Your "younger than 20" group probably only accounts for 15 year units, but your "older than 25" group might account for up to 35 year units, or more if rumors of 70-year old Wii buyers end up being right.  Your average year unit in "+25" might have half as many people in it as your "-20," and still pull your average total age well above 25.  Looked at graphically, this would be considered a "gradual slope upwards" and a "steep drop-off"   So I'm going to go ahead and say you're an ignorant moron who jumps at tidbits of information instead of taking all the facts into account.  Jackass.

Did I insult you? No. I said you were wrong. It may be that I was wrong and you are right [edit: in fact, without taking the time to doublecheck the statistics I'd speculate that that is most likely the case], but I am not the jackass of the two of us.

jhlennon1 said: Firstly, SMG ain't going to be selling millions in Japan. Secondly, SMG will sell more then Halo 3 because of Europe sales. Pure and Simple. I think the US Halo 3 sales will be higher then the SMG US sales. So in the end, Europe sales will be the reason SMG outsells Halo 3.

Your first point is probably correct -- where a million SMG sales in Japan is a foregone conclusion, two million or more may be a stretch.  It depends on too many variables to assume SMG will sell 'millions' in Japan instead of "somewhere between 1 million and 2 million."

However, I'm not so sure SMG will not outsell Halo 3 in the US.  Certainly, the US is the market where Halo 3 sells strongly, and it's one of the strongest francheses ever in the US (comperable with the GTA 3 series), however, I can't see an end to the Wii demand level and I notice that a people discover/pick up SMG more and more as time goes on.  I think SMG has a reasonable chance of outperforming Halo 3 US sales vs US sales.

Final-Fan said: Did I insult you? No. I said you were wrong. It may be that I was wrong and you are right [edit: in fact, without taking the time to doublecheck the statistics I'd speculate that that is most likely the case], but I am not the jackass of the two of us.

 You said I was wrong in an obnoxious, condescending way, with bad information to back you up.  And that was your only comment.  The fact that you now basically admit that I'm right with no argument just proves my point: you added nothing to the conversation, you just went "neener neener, you're wrong."  Fine, you didn't technically "insult" me, but you were incredibly rude.  When you're rude, people tend to get pissed.  It happens.

Melissa said: Final-Fan said: Did I insult you? No. I said you were wrong. It may be that I was wrong and you are right [edit: in fact, without taking the time to doublecheck the statistics I'd speculate that that is most likely the case], but I am not the jackass of the two of us.  You said I was wrong in an obnoxious, condescending way, with bad information to back you up.  And that was your only comment.  The fact that you now basically admit that I'm right with no argument just proves my point: you added nothing to the conversation, you just went "neener neener, you're wrong."  Fine, you didn't technically "insult" me, but you were incredibly rude.  When you're rude, people tend to get pissed.  It happens.

I was somewhat condescending, and you just about exploded with indignation. Your reaction was completely out of proportion to my rudeness. I'm not going to get all bent out of shape about it -- as you say, these things happen, especially on the Internet. But I'd advise you to, in the future, not attempt to use someone's admission of error as a weapon against him. Few enough people admit they're wrong in an argument already.

mrstickball said: I hate to say it, but the argument "the Wii has a much higher install base for units" argument doesn't really work. Merely because SMG is a very Nintendo-Oriented game. It won't sell to the droves that are typically buying the Wii (they buy it for the more casual fare). Zelda: Twilight Princess has done "mediocre" considering the absolutely insane install base. If Zelda: TP can only manage ~4m units on the Wii, why should SMG sell 2.5x or more, higher?

twilight princess is not a mainstreem title it has sold very weel,also alot of people that own wii might of bought it for GC because of the traditional controls,and it is still selling about 25-30 k a week so we can expect another 500k