Super Mario Galaxy Vs. Halo 3 Sales

[Final-Fan]

Melissa said:

Final-Fan said:

Melissa said:
It depends on how the demographics for this gen of consoles pans out. If you look at game ownership as a bell curve by age, you're going to see a gradual slope upwards until about 20, and then a steep drop-off after 25 or so. Your center around that peak is more likely to buy Halo. Everyone else is more likely to buy Mario. Now, it's all but a given that the entire curve will be more even this generation, which bodes well for SMG, but because "peak" players are more likely to buy Halo than "tail" players are likely to buy SMG (for the casual gamer, there is no "must have" game), the curve has to even out a lot for relatively little headway.

A similar issue is the point that Mario is currently building up from a low, where (and this is my opinion) Halo has peaked already, and will in all likelyhood not be as defining a franchise as it was last generation. It's the "ascent vs. decline" issue. I actually think this one is more telling. Halo is a strong franchise and won't be falling too much from aforementioned peak, but Mario has the possibility to be as popular as the franchise ever was, which could imply the best-selling game of this generation.

I give it to SMG.

(emphasis added) http://www.theesa.com/facts/top_10_facts.php

3. The average game player is 33 years old and has been playing games for 12 years.

So I'm going to go ahead and say you're wrong there.

 A) looking at the rest of those stats, it looks like they're including PC, and possibly even internet-based (i.e., flash) games, whereas I'm talking only about consoles

B) the old-side tail stretches far longer than the young-side tail, so in effect you're chopping a large demographic into smaller measureable pieces.  If you've got, using a simple example, 10 kids who are 10 years old, and then one person for each year between 35 and 50, your *average* is still 31.2.  A steep drop-off doesn't mean the numbers fade into nonexistence.  Your "younger than 20" group probably only accounts for 15 year units, but your "older than 25" group might account for up to 35 year units, or more if rumors of 70-year old Wii buyers end up being right.  Your average year unit in "+25" might have half as many people in it as your "-20," and still pull your average total age well above 25.  Looked at graphically, this would be considered a "gradual slope upwards" and a "steep drop-off"

 

So I'm going to go ahead and say you're an ignorant moron who jumps at tidbits of information instead of taking all the facts into account. 

Jackass.

Did I insult you? No. I said you were wrong. It may be that I was wrong and you are right [edit: in fact, without taking the time to doublecheck the statistics I'd speculate that that is most likely the case], but I am not the jackass of the two of us.