This is actually a pretty tough call. It really depends how Galaxy does in December and then carries over to 2008. If Galaxy can get anywhere to 4-5 million by year's end then it's looking pretty good. But it has to keep going strong into 2008. Mario Party 8 strong in all areas ya know.

Halo 3 on the otherhand is in better posistion to outsell Mario but it's definetly not showing any signs of long term legs. As soon as holidays are over it'll be pretty much nonexistent in the Europe/Other areas because that's how software has been going for 360 there. In Japan its already dead. Now America it really depends. Its important to note that its being 2:1 by Wii Play which shows that it may not have good enough legs.

Otherwise right now I'm going to go with H3 selling more in the long run, as percentages say it should, but I might come back in a couple of months and change that depending on sales.

Um i am sure that smg will sell more then Halo 3 world wide and in america. I am think life time saled of halo 3 will be the same as halo 2 with is about 8.5 mill wich is still amazing but i think smg sales will pass sm64 sales (11mill). So in the end Halo 3 8.5mill, smg 13mill, and ssbb 50mill!!!!america halo 6.6 mill, smg 7mill, and ssbb 30mill !!!! wii sales in end 130mill, x360 35mill, ps3 50mill.top selling games of this generation.
wii sports- 125mill
wiiplay 60mill
ssbb-50mill
wiifit-25mill
wiimusic- 21mill
mariokart wii-20mill
smg-13mill
gta4- 10mill(x360+ps3)
metal gear solid 4-9mill
halo3-8.5 mill
final fantisy- 7mill.

^^^

Does no one have conscience of attach rates anymore. Geez. People assume now that everyone is going to buy the exact same game. Seriously the best attach rate of a game worldiwde I believe was Super Mario 64, which wasn't even 40%. Yet now we are having people think they can do 50% and 60%. And actually when hardware sales get higher, attach rates get smaller, as your getting different crowds in there. As the only way to get high hardware sales, is to get the gamers that might only buy the hardware and one or 2 games. In then end Wii Sports sales will depend on how long its kept bundled with the Wii and how much Wii sales. Wii Play sales in no way can get to 60 million, while right now the max I could ever see it getting is 15 million, remembering the best selling game of all time was only over 17 million. SSBB numbers are ludacris. 15 million once again as the limit. Wii Fit and Wii Music although will be high off brandname, would be luckily to even get around the point of 10 million, as due to them being later in the Wii series, which as you see with any series has usually lesser sales. Mario Kart and SMG numbers are better, but there sales will probably be about the same somehwere around 8-12 million. GTA, Metal Gear and H3 are reasonable. So if FF13.

But seriously people when we think about how much a software can sell, the first thing that should come to your mind is how much hardware do you think of that certain console can be sold and then take into account attach rates. It's the most important thing when predicting software sales.

fine my real prediction if you take in acount of what you just siad is:
wii sports- 36 mill
wiiplay 20mill
ssbb- 16mill
wiifit-14mill
wiimusic- 13.5mill
smg- 13mill
mariokart wii- 11mill
gta4- 10mill(x360+ps3)
metal gear solid 4-9mill
halo3-8.5 mill
final fantisy- 7mill
and wii 130mill, x360- 35mill, ps3- 50mill,psp-60mill, ds-150mill!!

My guestimate is that Halo 3 will outsell Super Mario Galaxy in North America, while Super Mario Galaxy will outsell Halo 3 in Japan and the rest of the world. The end result will be Super Mario Galaxy outselling Halo 3 but because Super Mario Galaxy will slowly build up its sales, and Halo 3 sold most of its units early on, we won't see it take the lead until late 2008.

It depends on how the demographics for this gen of consoles pans out. If you look at game ownership as a bell curve by age, you're going to see a gradual slope upwards until about 20, and then a steep drop-off after 25 or so. Your center around that peak is more likely to buy Halo. Everyone else is more likely to buy Mario. Now, it's all but a given that the entire curve will be more even this generation, which bodes well for SMG, but because "peak" players are more likely to buy Halo than "tail" players are likely to buy SMG (for the casual gamer, there is no "must have" game), the curve has to even out a lot for relatively little headway.

A similar issue is the point that Mario is currently building up from a low, where (and this is my opinion) Halo has peaked already, and will in all likelyhood not be as defining a franchise as it was last generation. It's the "ascent vs. decline" issue. I actually think this one is more telling. Halo is a strong franchise and won't be falling too much from aforementioned peak, but Mario has the possibility to be as popular as the franchise ever was, which could imply the best-selling game of this generation.

I give it to SMG.

I hate to say it, but the argument "the Wii has a much higher install base for units" argument doesn't really work.

Merely because SMG is a very Nintendo-Oriented game. It won't sell to the droves that are typically buying the Wii (they buy it for the more casual fare).

Zelda: Twilight Princess has done "mediocre" considering the absolutely insane install base. If Zelda: TP can only manage ~4m units on the Wii, why should SMG sell 2.5x or more, higher?

Because Mario Games usually sell at least double the amount of Zelda games.

Your argument is partially right mrstickball, also the PS2 proves that a high install base usually leads to lower attach rates, but you can't compare Mario and Zelda. I mean, go to the city and ask strangers if they know Zelda and ask them if they know Mario...
A lot of casual buyers will try out a Mario game now that they have a Wii, maybe also in memories of SMB.

btw, I actually agree more or less with your lifetime sales prediction for Galaxy, but I think your Halo 3 prediction is off. I expect both games to sell in the 8-10 millions range.

In world wide SMG in America Halo 3