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Forums - Nintendo - Predict sales of the 4 big upcoming core games!

Asriel said:

Slimebeast, read some hands on impressions of Skyward Sword-I read a dozen or so, and they were all positive. That terrible on stage demo was more down to technical problems than poor design or poor controls.

I don't think they were. I clearly remember a couple hands-on being semi-negative. Don't ask me to dig them up though.

I agree with Barozi about Donkey Kong. It's too old to make impact. Sadly. Times change. The question is exactly how irrelevant it is though.



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Slimebeast said:
Asriel said:

Slimebeast, read some hands on impressions of Skyward Sword-I read a dozen or so, and they were all positive. That terrible on stage demo was more down to technical problems than poor design or poor controls.

I don't think they were. I clearly remember a couple hands-on being semi-negative. Don't ask me to dig them up though.

I agree with Barozi about Donkey Kong. It's too old to make impact. Sadly. Times change. The question is exactly how irrelevant it is though.


Well, we have my unsourced dozen versus your unsourced couple, so I won't press the point . But it is a first party Nintendo title and the next Legend of Zelda-do you honestly think they'll ship it with inaccurate motion control? Hopefully there won't be long for either of us to find out, either with a Q1 release or more in-depth previews before year end.



Asriel said:
Slimebeast said:

I don't think they were. I clearly remember a couple hands-on being semi-negative. Don't ask me to dig them up though.

I agree with Barozi about Donkey Kong. It's too old to make impact. Sadly. Times change. The question is exactly how irrelevant it is though.


Well, we have my unsourced dozen versus your unsourced couple, so I won't press the point .





DKR: 7.5 first year, maybe 10 million lifetime

Zelda: 4  or 5 million total

Kirby: 3 million

Epic Mikey: 2 million



Slimebeast said:
Asriel said:

Slimebeast, read some hands on impressions of Skyward Sword-I read a dozen or so, and they were all positive. That terrible on stage demo was more down to technical problems than poor design or poor controls.

I don't think they were. I clearly remember a couple hands-on being semi-negative. Don't ask me to dig them up though.

I agree with Barozi about Donkey Kong. It's too old to make impact. Sadly. Times change. The question is exactly how irrelevant it is though.

Yeah like 2D Mario on a console was too old to make an impact...oh wait.



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new 3ds

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zelda U

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I see both Zelda and DK doing very well. Not so sure about the other two.

Zelda: 5 million

DKR: 5 million

Kirby: 1.5 million

Epic Mickey: 1.2 million



All of them will do good but DK is a bit of a wildcard, primarily because of Japan. I can see it selling over 2 million in that region, but I can also see it selling less than 500k. It all depends on how pervasive the anti-west sentiment has become there. Back in the 90s the situation was almost the polar opposite of what it is now, I mean Crash Bandicoot was a million seller franchise back then. Anyway here's my predictions.

Skyward Sword: 6.5 million

DK: 7.25 million 

Kirby: 3.25 million

Epic Mickey: 2 million



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I won't bother with numbers, only that the most creative looking title of the bunch--Kirby's Epic Yarn--will not find the audience it deserves. 

Depding on the advertising, Epic Mickey could manage some massive sales. 



Resident_Hazard said:

I won't bother with numbers, only that the most creative looking title of the bunch--Kirby's Epic Yarn--will not find the audience it deserves. 

Depding on the advertising, Epic Mickey could manage some massive sales. 

Kirby's a much stronger franchise than given credit for - I think it can hit two million if it sells anything like previous serious Kirby games.

Anyway.

Zelda's hard to pin. The facto f WM being mandatory will end up hurting it like the expansion pack hurt Majora's Mask, but it should come in at 5 million after a couple of years. Won't match Twilight Princess or the first game in terms of units sold, but it won't have anything to do with quality (again, see Majora's Mask).

Donkey Kong is even harder to pin. We haven't had a DKC in - what - 14 years or so? It's about time for a resurgence. I want to say 5.5 would be a solid number for it, but it could easily go higher.

Epic Mickey is the real wildcard, though. It could do as low as 1.5 or as high as 4 million after a few years, and it might also have tremendous legs. It depends on who advertises it; if Nintendo advertises it, it will do well. If Disney advertises it, it will do phenomenally.



Khuutra said:
Resident_Hazard said:

I won't bother with numbers, only that the most creative looking title of the bunch--Kirby's Epic Yarn--will not find the audience it deserves. 

Depding on the advertising, Epic Mickey could manage some massive sales. 

Kirby's a much stronger franchise than given credit for - I think it can hit two million if it sells anything like previous serious Kirby games.

Anyway.

Zelda's hard to pin. The facto f WM being mandatory will end up hurting it like the expansion pack hurt Majora's Mask, but it should come in at 5 million after a couple of years. Won't match Twilight Princess or the first game in terms of units sold, but it won't have anything to do with quality (again, see Majora's Mask).

Donkey Kong is even harder to pin. We haven't had a DKC in - what - 14 years or so? It's about time for a resurgence. I want to say 5.5 would be a solid number for it, but it could easily go higher.

Epic Mickey is the real wildcard, though. It could do as low as 1.5 or as high as 4 million after a few years, and it might also have tremendous legs. It depends on who advertises it; if Nintendo advertises it, it will do well. If Disney advertises it, it will do phenomenally.

From what I've seen, gamers tend to fear anything really new--which is why I think Kirby won't do so well, while the barely if at all) evolved Donkey Kong Country will sell higher to people looking to, once again, relive the kind of repetitive gameplay found in that franchise.  I mean, look now many Nintendo fans just want "more Zelda like Ocarina" or "more Resident Evil like part 4" or have have you.  Nintendo fans seem to live for remakes and playing anything that's a throwback to some kind of "glory day" period of Nintendo.

I think, if Disney throws some money behind it, Epic Mickey could be a powerhouse--especially given the Wii's family-friendly and casual-friendly demeanor.  A lot of those people who don't know anything about video game franchises, do know about other entetainment--such as Disney franchises and they'll jump right into that one. 

Honestly, though, the only one of these four titles I care about is Kirby's Epic Yarn.  I still feel that Donkey Kong Country is a complete waste of a talented studio like Retro.  Anyone could've made a side-scrolling platform game focused on timed jumps and little else (which is what those games were).  And I just think that Skyward Sword will have the same kind of predictable gameplay, puzzle solving, and plot as pretty much every Zelda that came before it.  Given the sales of Wii Sports Resort, I think the Wii Motion Plus deal is in enough homes for it to still garner strong sales.  I think the real reason Majora's Mask (a phenomenal game, by the way) didn't do as well as Ocarina of Time was because it was one of the few Zelda titles to have a unique story, plot and setting.