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Forums - Sales - Understanding Halo

Well at least you put thought into it rather than just saying highest selling halo!!! And I have no idea. Halo is a hard series to call. If it was GT I would say less than the first one of the new generation but Halo seems to just be going up each time a main one is released. But where will it stop I dunno? I'm gonna say 10mil as a pessimistic estimate.



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themanwithnoname said:
Zlejedi said:

Halo 3 barely crawled to 11 milions including countless bundles , additional increases from release of Wars and ODST and price drops to as low as 15 euros at times and you think Reach will sell 19 milions?


What countless bundles are you referring to? The only two big ones were the Halo 3 console one and the one with Fable II about a year and a half after the game out that was only with $400 elites. I understand that a few people on here like to play down Halo's sales, but stop making stuff up. Halo Wars and ODST are not comparable to Halo 3 or Reach.

There were also bundles with ODST, and bundles with Wars as well as console boundle.



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Reach will struggle to outsell Halo 3. I don't think it will.

3.5 mill first week. 10 million lifetime.

Still those are amazing sales.



Michael-5 said:

Well Halo: Reach is around the corner, and there is a lot of speculation to how well the game will sell. The game currently has just a little more Pre-orders the Modern Warfare 2, and about 1.5 times the Pre-orders of Halo 3, which to my knowledge had 1.1 million Pre-orders (Please correct me if I'm wrong). So if Reach sells in a similar fashion to Halo 3, it could potentially outsell Halo 3 by 73%. I doubt the game will sell 19 million copies (I'm guessing 14.5 million personally), but to be fair I thought it would be smart to compare pre-orders and weekly sales to past core games in the franchise. This way, once week one, two, three, etc figures come in, we can compare it's sales and make more accurate estimates on total game sales. So here we go.

Note -  Halo: Combat Evolved is excluded from the comparison because VGChartz does not have weekly sales data for the game. The game did go on and sell 6.43 million as a Launch title for the X-Box. This gives it a Software-Hardware ratio of 0.261, meaning that 26.1% of X-Box owners own a copy of Halo: Combat Evolved, which was a launch title for the 360.

Note - Halo 3, and ODST were released in September, so the 10 week data does not include December sales, where sales were very strong. So those games sold about a million more copies in December.

Halo 2 (Released November 9th 2004 in Americas, November 11th 2004 in EMEAA/Japan).

  Game Sales Console Sales Software-Hardware Ratio Halo 2. vs Halo Reach
Pre-Orders N/A 163k/16,986k N/A N/A
Week 1 3,302k 238k/17,224k 0.194  
Week 2 690k/3,992k 307k/17,530k 0.229  
Week 3 409k/4,400k 461k/17,991k 0.246  
Week 4 (Dec 4th) 313k/4,713k 309k/18,300k 0.257  
Week 5

307k/5,020k

404k/18,703k 0.267  
Week 6 382k/5,403k 502k/19,205k 0.281  
Week 7 (Dec 25th) 432k/5,835k

481k/19,686k

0.294  
Week 8 (Jan 1st) 114k/5,949k 167k/19,853k 0.300  
Week 9 59k/6,009k 103k/19,956k 0.301  
Week 10 55k/6,064k 100k/20,055k 0.302  

The game went on to sell 8.38 million units, on a console which only sold 24.65 million units. This gives the final Software-Hardware ratio of 0.340. This means that 34% of X-Box owners have a copy of Halo 2, a game that came out 3 years after the launch of the console.

Halo 3 (Released on September 25th 2007 in Americas, September 26th 2007 in EMEAA, and September 27th 2007 in Japan)

  Game Sales Console Sales Software-Hardware Ratio Halo 3 vs. Halo Reach
Pre-Orders 1,100k 165k/11,599k 0.095 1 : 1.326 (currently)
Week 1 3,815k 230k/11,829k 0.323  
Week 2 (Oct 6th) 782k/4,598k 213k/12,042k 0.382  
Week 3 328k/4,926k 200k/12,242k 0.402  
Week 4 183k/5,109k 179k/12,421k 0.411  
Week 5 124k/5,232k 173k/12,594k 0.415  
Week 6 (Nov 3rd) 114k/5,346k 195k/12,789k 0.418  
Week 7 108k/5,454k 195k/12,984k 0.420  
Week 8 116k/5,571k 229k/13,213k 0.422  
Week 9 173k/5,743k 418k/13,631k 0.422  
Week 10 (Dec 1st) 163k/5,907k 324k/13,955k 0.423  

Currently Halo 3 has sold 11.14 million units, on a console with 42.71 million owners. So the Software-Hardware ratio is 0.261, meaning that 26.1% of 360 owners own a copy of Halo 3, a game that came out two years after the launch of the console.

Halo 3: ODST (Released on September 22nd 2009 in Americas and EMEAA, and September 24th, 2009 in Japan)

  Game Sales Console Sales Software-Hardware Ratio Halo 3: ODST vs. Halo: Reach
Pre-Orders 754k 129k/31,736k 0.024 1 : 1.935 (currently)
Week 1 2,216k 147k/31,882k 0.069  
Week 2 (Oct 3rd) 467k/2,683k 150k/32,033k 0.084  
Week 3 217k/2,900k 151k/32,183k 0.090  
Week 4 137k/3,036k 146k/32,330k 0.094  
Week 5 98k/3,135k 152k/32,482k 0.097  
Week 6 79k/3,214k 193k/32,675k 0.098  
Week 7 (Nov 7th) 78k/3,291k 311k/32,987k 0.100  
Week 8 84k/3,375k 438k/33,424k 0.101  
Week 9 116k/3,491k 358k/33,782k 0.103  
Week 10 183k/3,673 540k/34,322k 0.107  

Currently Halo 3: ODST has sold 5.58 million copies, on a console with 42.71 million units. So the software-hardware ratio is 0.131, meaning that 13.1% of all 360 owners have a copy of Halo 3: ODST, a game that released 4 years after the launch of the console. Currently the game still sells in the range of 20-40k weekly, on a console which sells 180-200k weekly, a ratio of approximately 0.12-0.20 games sold for each new 360 owners.

Note: The Jump in sales during week 8, to above PS3 levels, was due to the release of Modern Warfare 2 with a limited edition Modern Warfare 2 X-box 360, 250 gig.

Halo: Reach

  Game Sales Console Sales Software-Hardware Ratio vs. Halo 2 vs. Halo 3 vs. Halo 3: ODST
Pre-Orders 1,459k (currently) 42,71k (currently) 0.034 N/A x1.326 (currently) x1.935 (currently)
Week 1            
Week 2            
Week 3            
Week 4            
Week 5            
Week 6            
Week 7            
Week 8            
Week 9            
Week 10            

I will update this thread as weekly data comes in.

One important thing to notice is that Halo, Halo 2, and Halo 3 have attach rates of 26.1%, 34%, 26.1% respectively. If Halo Reach can achieve an attach at of say 20% by the end of 2011, that's 12 million units sold, and thats a conservative low estimate. If it achieves a 25% attach rate, that's 15 million units sold!

Also if Halo: Reach sells in a similar pattern to Halo 3, judging from Pre-orders it can do 19 million! That's a bit high for me, but all signs point to strong sales.

Halo: Reach will be released onto the X-box 360 when all previous Halo games sold on a smaller install base. This game will most likely be the best selling HD exclusive title this generation.


It's entirely possible there will be Halo 4 on Xbox 360 in 2013. That could top Reach.

 

We know Halo 4 is in development, and we can be sure it will come in 2013 (Main halo games come every 3 years). we just dont know if it will be on 360 or next Xbox.

 

I would have thought next Xbox, but there was a guy who's uncle supposedly works for 343 on neogaf, and he said it is for 360.



Zlejedi said:
themanwithnoname said:
Zlejedi said:

Halo 3 barely crawled to 11 milions including countless bundles , additional increases from release of Wars and ODST and price drops to as low as 15 euros at times and you think Reach will sell 19 milions?


What countless bundles are you referring to? The only two big ones were the Halo 3 console one and the one with Fable II about a year and a half after the game out that was only with $400 elites. I understand that a few people on here like to play down Halo's sales, but stop making stuff up. Halo Wars and ODST are not comparable to Halo 3 or Reach.

There were also bundles with ODST, and bundles with Wars as well as console boundle.


I didn't see any of those bundles. Maybe in Europe, where everything is bundled. But you can say that about any game. I gaurentee most of Gran Turismo's sales in Europe are from bundles.

 

Also Halo 3 is in the Amazon top 100 even now. I imagine it's sold more than 11m, vgchartz numbers are not flawless. Wikipedia said MS said it sold over 8 million by Jan 2008, basically right after the game came out. Kind of hard to believe it only sold 3m more since then. Halo is like Gran Turismo on Sony, it sells and sells to new console buyers, it is a staple.

With all the hype, large install base, and lack of September competition for Reach, I suspect it's numbers will be staggering.



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fallen said:
Zlejedi said:
themanwithnoname said:
Zlejedi said:

Halo 3 barely crawled to 11 milions including countless bundles , additional increases from release of Wars and ODST and price drops to as low as 15 euros at times and you think Reach will sell 19 milions?


What countless bundles are you referring to? The only two big ones were the Halo 3 console one and the one with Fable II about a year and a half after the game out that was only with $400 elites. I understand that a few people on here like to play down Halo's sales, but stop making stuff up. Halo Wars and ODST are not comparable to Halo 3 or Reach.

There were also bundles with ODST, and bundles with Wars as well as console boundle.


I didn't see any of those bundles. Maybe in Europe, where everything is bundled. But you can say that about any game. I gaurentee most of Gran Turismo's sales in Europe are from bundles.

 

Also Halo 3 is in the Amazon top 100 even now. I imagine it's sold more than 11m, vgchartz numbers are not flawless. Wikipedia said MS said it sold over 8 million by Jan 2008, basically right after the game came out. Kind of hard to believe it only sold 3m more since then. Halo is like Gran Turismo on Sony, it sells and sells to new console buyers, it is a staple.

With all the hype, large install base, and lack of September competition for Reach, I suspect it's numbers will be staggering.

I agree with you about the Halo bundles. Incredible short lived and limited. Maybe 3 or 4% of Halo 3 sales are from those bundles. That's pretty much nothing. Even less copies for ODST and especially Halo Wars.



fallen said:
It's entirely possible there will be Halo 4 on Xbox 360 in 2013. That could top Reach.

 

We know Halo 4 is in development, and we can be sure it will come in 2013 (Main halo games come every 3 years). we just dont know if it will be on 360 or next Xbox.

 

I would have thought next Xbox, but there was a guy who's uncle supposedly works for 343 on neogaf, and he said it is for 360.

Wow you actually quoted my original post? lol

There could be a Halo 4 for the 360, but not much is known about that. It's not being developed by Bungie, so sales may just plumet (probably not), and for all we know it could be a launch title for a successor console. I simply saide Halo: Reach is likely to be the best selling HD console exclusive, it's not garenteed by any means.

Lol there is a guy, who's uncle works for 343, and says. LOL! really accurate information. It should be taken with a grain of salt..



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Barozi said:
fallen said:
Zlejedi said:
themanwithnoname said:
Zlejedi said:

Halo 3 barely crawled to 11 milions including countless bundles , additional increases from release of Wars and ODST and price drops to as low as 15 euros at times and you think Reach will sell 19 milions?


What countless bundles are you referring to? The only two big ones were the Halo 3 console one and the one with Fable II about a year and a half after the game out that was only with $400 elites. I understand that a few people on here like to play down Halo's sales, but stop making stuff up. Halo Wars and ODST are not comparable to Halo 3 or Reach.

There were also bundles with ODST, and bundles with Wars as well as console boundle.


I didn't see any of those bundles. Maybe in Europe, where everything is bundled. But you can say that about any game. I gaurentee most of Gran Turismo's sales in Europe are from bundles.

 

Also Halo 3 is in the Amazon top 100 even now. I imagine it's sold more than 11m, vgchartz numbers are not flawless. Wikipedia said MS said it sold over 8 million by Jan 2008, basically right after the game came out. Kind of hard to believe it only sold 3m more since then. Halo is like Gran Turismo on Sony, it sells and sells to new console buyers, it is a staple.

With all the hype, large install base, and lack of September competition for Reach, I suspect it's numbers will be staggering.

I agree with you about the Halo bundles. Incredible short lived and limited. Maybe 3 or 4% of Halo 3 sales are from those bundles. That's pretty much nothing. Even less copies for ODST and especially Halo Wars.

I second this. The only bundle I remember seeing was the temporary Elite bundle with Fable 2 and Halo 3 about a year and a half after the console was released. I also remember a limited edition 360 bundle. I remember no buldes for ODST, or Halo Wars, unless they were store specific (like buy the console, get ODST free, but as a separate game from the console).

Halo 3 was never bundled like Metal Gear Solid 4 (which was bundled with the last model of the backward compatible PS3), or Gran Turismo 5: Prologue, Motorstorm, or Kung Fu Panda for 360. It pushed legit sales.

fallen makes a good point. the game did sell 8.1 million units by January 2008, it's hard to beleive it only sold 3 million units since, considering it regularly appears on VGCharts selling 5-10k weekly, 3 years after release.



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P.S. Should i make a table comparing Modern Warfare 2 (360) to Halo: Reach sales? If I do it will be biased toward Modern Warfare because it's first 8 weeks of sales were in the peak holiday season (November-December), where Halo comes out in September, when games sales are generally slower. All Halo title experienced a jump in sales after the 10 week period due to November holiday sales.

Maybe I should just expand my lists to 15 weeks?



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Slimebeast said:

Reach will struggle to outsell Halo 3. I don't think it will.

3.5 mill first week. 10 million lifetime.

Still those are amazing sales.


I with you there and I have a very good theory for that too:

 

When Halo 3 came out, not only there was less competition in the FPS genre let alone the whole 360 library, the main thing back then was THE CALL OF DUTY MONSTER HADN'T EVOLVED.

Fast forward 3 years later and 3 soon to be 4 Call of Duty games enter the battefield and the market is a lot more competitve, the audience much more dispersed.

Back in late 2007 when the Xbox was starting to lower its price and building up install base, many of the new owners bought Halo 3. However you have to consider many of those owners didn't stay very attached to the franchise. Of course, millions of them still are and those hardcore fans were the first to jump into it 3 years ago, but today there are just many more Call of Duty players and we have think many of those probably bought Halo and then moved to other things. For many of them Halo 3 was just a good game to accompany their 360 purchase.

This holiday season and Q1 2011 will have too many strong franchises competiting for gamers' money, that really wasn't the case for Holiday 2007 and beginning of 2008. But if you must take something out of this analysis is what I said above about Halo 3 launching in the middle of an early expansion period for the X360, when many gamers bought the console with the first iteration of its Number 1 franchise this generation. That and the COD phenomenon was just starting.