| Michael-5 said: Well Halo: Reach is around the corner, and there is a lot of speculation to how well the game will sell. The game currently has just a little more Pre-orders the Modern Warfare 2, and about 1.5 times the Pre-orders of Halo 3, which to my knowledge had 1.1 million Pre-orders (Please correct me if I'm wrong). So if Reach sells in a similar fashion to Halo 3, it could potentially outsell Halo 3 by 73%. I doubt the game will sell 19 million copies (I'm guessing 14.5 million personally), but to be fair I thought it would be smart to compare pre-orders and weekly sales to past core games in the franchise. This way, once week one, two, three, etc figures come in, we can compare it's sales and make more accurate estimates on total game sales. So here we go. Note - Halo: Combat Evolved is excluded from the comparison because VGChartz does not have weekly sales data for the game. The game did go on and sell 6.43 million as a Launch title for the X-Box. This gives it a Software-Hardware ratio of 0.261, meaning that 26.1% of X-Box owners own a copy of Halo: Combat Evolved, which was a launch title for the 360. Note - Halo 3, and ODST were released in September, so the 10 week data does not include December sales, where sales were very strong. So those games sold about a million more copies in December. Halo 2 (Released November 9th 2004 in Americas, November 11th 2004 in EMEAA/Japan).
The game went on to sell 8.38 million units, on a console which only sold 24.65 million units. This gives the final Software-Hardware ratio of 0.340. This means that 34% of X-Box owners have a copy of Halo 2, a game that came out 3 years after the launch of the console. Halo 3 (Released on September 25th 2007 in Americas, September 26th 2007 in EMEAA, and September 27th 2007 in Japan)
Currently Halo 3 has sold 11.14 million units, on a console with 42.71 million owners. So the Software-Hardware ratio is 0.261, meaning that 26.1% of 360 owners own a copy of Halo 3, a game that came out two years after the launch of the console. Halo 3: ODST (Released on September 22nd 2009 in Americas and EMEAA, and September 24th, 2009 in Japan)
Currently Halo 3: ODST has sold 5.58 million copies, on a console with 42.71 million units. So the software-hardware ratio is 0.131, meaning that 13.1% of all 360 owners have a copy of Halo 3: ODST, a game that released 4 years after the launch of the console. Currently the game still sells in the range of 20-40k weekly, on a console which sells 180-200k weekly, a ratio of approximately 0.12-0.20 games sold for each new 360 owners. Note: The Jump in sales during week 8, to above PS3 levels, was due to the release of Modern Warfare 2 with a limited edition Modern Warfare 2 X-box 360, 250 gig. Halo: Reach
I will update this thread as weekly data comes in. One important thing to notice is that Halo, Halo 2, and Halo 3 have attach rates of 26.1%, 34%, 26.1% respectively. If Halo Reach can achieve an attach at of say 20% by the end of 2011, that's 12 million units sold, and thats a conservative low estimate. If it achieves a 25% attach rate, that's 15 million units sold! Also if Halo: Reach sells in a similar pattern to Halo 3, judging from Pre-orders it can do 19 million! That's a bit high for me, but all signs point to strong sales. Halo: Reach will be released onto the X-box 360 when all previous Halo games sold on a smaller install base. This game will most likely be the best selling HD exclusive title this generation. |
It's entirely possible there will be Halo 4 on Xbox 360 in 2013. That could top Reach.
We know Halo 4 is in development, and we can be sure it will come in 2013 (Main halo games come every 3 years). we just dont know if it will be on 360 or next Xbox.
I would have thought next Xbox, but there was a guy who's uncle supposedly works for 343 on neogaf, and he said it is for 360.
