I'm a bit surprised by the unruly conduct of some users in this thread, not to mention the unabashed trolling. JL is known for his prediction, so to see even mods shitting bricks over it is unsettling to say the least. And the justifications? I don't rememebr any "bash sony fans free!" days after the ridiculous predictions that Ratchet would sell 2 million WW by January.

WiiFit has been bashed from day one - that's why I'm trying to figure out if this sudden bitch and whinefest from several users is either longtime fanboy assholes waiting to cry out in joy at John Lucas getting "put in his place" or just a negative reaction that WiiFit didn't fail miserably which has just reduced them to screaming and scratching at its largest supporter in the sales argument. This is a sales site, not a vendetta site, and there's no excuse to be tearing into people regardless of how outlandish their predictions may be.

You people need to get a grip.

lingysis, since no one gets why JL is doing this, why don't you go out on a limb and EXPLAIN it to us. Instead of just telling us we don't understand, tell us what it is that we don't understand, and lay out his intentions for us. Let's drop the general statements that don't give us any insight into what it is we are unable to grasp, since clearly you show such great understanding for JL's reasoning.

Actually, my "red' status comes from being the guy that runs the prediction league....Not because I was known as some ultra-well balanced poster that attained Godhood and being able to randomly ban people.



Lingsys - I don't understand what's wrong with calling someone on the carpet for an insane prediction, then telling him to eat his crow when it's due. I respect some of JL's predictions...Which is why I am calling him out on this.

Why should you respect someone's 1-2 great opinions on sales, and not judge the ones that are insane.

Right now, he's calling for Nintendo to move 40 million Wii's next year alone. I'll gladly post a huge rebuttal to it soon. But don't you understand that the majority of his predictions (3.5m Wii Fit debut in Japan, 60m Wii's by EOY 2008, 240m LTD Wii before succuessor) are just so ungodly wrong, that someone has to say he's wrong.

But I'll post in a bit in his thread, explaining every single reason he's wrong. I don't want you to think that I just want to randomly troll threads about him. I have my reasons, and will gladly share :)

Actually mrsb, he's already stated the japanese half of his prediction is wrong, howerever if you read his prediction that is only half of the prediction, so he could still be half right.

Also your prediction about Halo 3 reaching 13 million is kind of out there as well, 9 million will likely be its upper limit

"I respect a man more that makes the wildest opinions possible, than one that simply criticizes them afterwards."

 40 million wiis: i think it's a bit nuts too, but hey, that's what defines John Lucas   that's what he does!

i respect your posts very much, since you're pretty much the only one who actually runs analysis based on actual numbers.  i look at your predictions and use it as a "maximum likelihood estimate".  john lucas's predictions are of a different sort; to me, they're not meant to be quantitative but qualitative.  so in my mind, it's silly to put compare those 2 kinds of numbers.  

ultimately, of course, numbers are meant to be used and held against as predictions, and it's no exception even for john lucas's predictions.  

i think 2 particular mods are a bit jealous of the attention they ain't gettin.

 yea pretty much what he said, sorry i didn't read it before =(

imo, making absolutely asinine predictions falls under trolling. seriously, if you make claims like wii fit in japan first week will outsell halo 3 first week or that the wii alone will outsell the whole playstation brand... BACK IT UP WITH SOMETHING. otherwise you sound like a fool.

Well the problem with running numbers on the Wii is no one really knows the upper limits of its demand, since supply has never really been able to outstrip demand in all regions at once. You could argue based on supply, but do you really know whether Nintendo has reached the limits of production, in the long run all factors are variable, while 40 million next year may be out of reach due to supply constraints, saying 240 million is laughable in its lifetime is foolishness on Stickball's part as he can only guess at the maximum demand and supply for the Wii.