I think they can, and I don't think it's predicated on the position they've put themselves into by the end of this generation, but that will help. I think it's almost purely dependant on the time chosen to launch, and the marketing approach at launch.

So using your analogy, I would say they each have yet to draw there cards for next gen, and there's a good possibility any one of them could end up on top depending on the hand they play. However based on what Sony have said (believing they will launch last) I think they're leaving another company open to take the majority, again, which is foolish and will require the other two to play at least mediocre hands, for Sony to take the game. 

But I'm not sure how much trust one can put in what has been said potentially 3 years before PS4 launch, whilst other executives have been cited PS4 games as being in development. 

I think it depends on what the PS4/720/Wii2 are. Nintendo, which in the past has sold less consoles then Sony, has boomed this generation, basically doubling PS3/360 sales. Microsoft and Sony envy Nintendo, and thats why they are releasing motion peripherals for their consoles, to tap into Nintendo's dominant market. Casual gamers are where most of video gaming is at, thats why the PS1, PS2 and Wii are soo successful, same goes for Gameboy's, DS, and to a degree PSP.

Nintendo has always been about innovation in games, and more recently they have been working on innovation withing the console/handheld itself (or at least to a larger degree now). In my opinion, they are worried that Sony and Microsoft will steal their ideas if they were to ever find out what type of console Nintendo made, and thus steal a portion of their sales. It is true that most controller innovations came from Nintendo, I mean the D pad, start and select, ABXY buttons, Shoulder buttons, shoulder tigger buttons, wireless controllers, 4-players (Why not 6?), and motion controllers, all Nintendo. to be fair Sony did make a Analog stick, and Microsoft made the home button as well as online gaming on a console, and achievements, but Nintendo made the most innovations (they are also the oldest).

Anyway for that reason, I beleive Nintendo will once again be the last console to the market (SNES, N64, Gamecube, and Wii all came out last in their generation). I have also heard from I beleive Angry Video Game Nerd, that Nintendo spends about 10-15 years developing technology for future consoles, and that the DS, a two screen touch console, has been in development since the Virtual Boy. Nintendo want's to keep their projects a secret.

Anyway too muchabout Nintendo, I have gotten off topic and bored you all to death by now, so..... for any relatives that read this I am sorry for your loss, and for those who live alone and are fat 30 year old super geeks.....

Now I said it depends on what the PS4/720/Wii2 are. It is very likely that all future consoles will incorporate some form of motion control, and on a graphical level I don't think games will have that significant of an improvement over current consoles. I think the Wii successor will be similar to the current Wii, but HD capable, and since Sony and Microsoft want their future console to be a central hub in the living room, I bet they will include a bunch of fancy gagets (Blue-Ray, PC connectivity, Game/Movie Rental Hub, MP3 player connectivity, etc). I think Sony will try to make their PS4 replace you home computer by allowing web drowsing, and downloads (through legal services only).

Assuming all that is true, I don't know if a delayed PS4 will hurt sales. I don't think Microsoft will jump the gun early this time around because that will allow PS3 sales to surpass 360 sales, and I think Microsoft wants to use the fact that 360 sold better as a factor that will make their console brand look better and hurt the Sony brand. I also doubt that Nintendo will release a console first. Wii sales may be dropping, but at least for a couple years it will still be the best selling, and after that, I still think Nintendo wants to wait to safeguard their ideas. the only way I see Nintendo jumping the gun is if they announce the console late, and have it feature some crazy technology that can't be copied in a year (Like 3DS).

So answering your question, I think that no matter what Sony does, it won't release it's PS4 after Microsoft releases a 720 because Microsoft wants the 360 to hold superior sales. So it won't be last, and if Nintendo releases it's Wii Successor early, which I severly doubt will happen), and Microsoft releases a year later, then Sony can freely choose which year to sell their PS4. Early would probably be better, but to hold PS3's reputation they might wait.

To be completly honest, I think all three consoles will come out the same year. Sompetition is too strong to separate launches. However Nintendo or MS might announce a successor early and jump the gun on sales, unlikely, but if both Nintendo and MS do that, and only Sony comes out a year later, then Sony will be hurt. However if Nintendo or Microsoft release late with Sony, they should be fine sales wise.

I mean look back, in 2006 when the 360 was out it only sold a little over 6 million units. It was still the PS2 era, and early launch now won't make that big of a difference, it's the final product that makes a difference. Only if PS3 is the ONLY console with a late launch, then it definatly will be hurt sales-wise. Otherwise no worries for Sony or MS.

If sony wants to win next gen, they would probably be best off launching ps4 first, but since they are more interesting in being profitable they should pray kinect takes off and the next xbox doesn't release in a while, because if they don't launch the ps4 at the same time as the next xbox, they will completly lose the US, but if the launches happen too soon sony won't even have one year this gen where the ps3 has been profitable. I think both microsoft and sony will ignore the next nintendo console and try to extend their consoles' life as long as possible, hence the release of the move and kinect. Nintendo has casual appeal but not HD graphics. They can only add that with a new console. Xbox and Playstation already have HD graphics and can try to add casual appeal without making brand new consoles. Now whether the move and kinect become successful or not is anyone's guess.

another one?

PS4 will launch on time. even if it's a yr. late great launch titles included!