@The Source

You forgot Super Scribblenauts, but I doubt it will be lost in the shuffle. Still, I don't think it'll hit the numbers that the original did.

Wii Casualties: Samurai Warriors, Deca Sports 3 (Maybe not a flop, but definitely won't hit the numbers that its predecessors did), FlingSmash, UDraw (will do as well as other 3rd party peripherals have done on Wii. )

DS Casualties: *Shrugs* Doesn't seem to be a huge lineup for the handheld. Still, I see a lot of games doing just fine.

PSP Casualties: Same thing as the DS. But knowing how PSP does on the retail software side of things, I'm not very confident for its games.

PS3 Casualties: Random Move games

360 Casualties: Random Kinect games

Multiplatform Casualties: Dead Rising 2 (is anyone excited for this game?), Shaun White Skateboarding, Castlevania, Tony Hawk Shred, and Create.

@Carl and Boutros

I guess we'll just have to see how DKCR does (Nintendo putting the game in the exact same launch position as NSMBW last year). It won't mimic that game's crazy inital sales (but then again, no game will this holiday season... and probably not for the rest of the generation), but I see it having some awesome sales this holiday season. I'm seeing it crossing 5 million without much of a fight... but we'll see.

This is to you and DaveJ:

Just as I successfully predicted Wii's original success (actually short by a million) and LBP limited vs massive success, etc. While I have been wrong (I thought PS3 would beat 360 by now and Wii would have reached 50% marketshare), however, mostly I am right.

Worst case I'll get 1/2 right and Kinect will sell more than 5m.

np, also note my reply above.

I was about to say I doubt LBP2 is getting to 3M, let alone more, but with the holiday season, it might actually make it. I guess my lack of faith has to do with the fact that the first game was heavily bundled and and sold 'only' 3.6M copies.

EA Sports with cheap plastic Band 3.33 millions

Cabela Big game Hunter with cheap plastic rifle 1.13 million

NERF N-Strike with so-so NERF Gun 0.87 and 0.76 million

Pfft... look at you. With all that evidence... and proof... and...

*looks around*

Well... well... well you're just a big doo doo head! *runs away crying*

Agreed.  There's a few DS games coming this year I'm still excited about (Ghost Trick, Etrian Odyssey 3, FF 4HoL, Layton 3), but all the really good stuff seems like it's next year (Golden Sun DD, Fire Emblem HoL&S, Okamiden, Ninokuni, Inazuma Eleven, Pokemon B/W, etc).  Nintendo's fall lineup is particularly pathetic, they really couldn't fit something like Last Window into that wasteland?

Oh, and throwing some fuel on the whole DKCR debate, I bet it outsells LBP2 by 2 to 1 or better.  Hell, Kirby might outsell LBP2 too.... Sega and Ubi missed an opportunity going digital and episodic imo, I think both Sonic 4 and Rayman Origins could've banked getting full retail releases on Wii.  In fact, I think those games would've outsold Sonic Colors and Rabbids in Time handily.

Check out the front page guys...

Brett and I discussed expectations for DKC, Kirby, Fallout, Halo, GT5, AC: B, NBA Jam, Wii Party, Medal of Honor, Call of Duty, GH, DJ Hero, etc, etc.

Wha?! NO!!! DON'T SAY THAT!!!!

Star Wars the Force Unleased 2-- I am surprised no one has discussed this game  yet.  The 1st game had great sales all around.   I think the sequel will do well but I don't think it will match the numbers of the original.

Rock Band 3-- This isn't just another music game rehash-- this is a huge leap forward in the music game genre.  I predict that this game will match or exceed the sales of Rock Band 2.  There are many people that are extremely excited for the all the Pro-mode options.  There isn't a good game that does anything like this yet so I think it will draw in a new audience.  Now if they will only let me import my Beatles tracks into pro mode...

New Guitar Hero game- meh, this game is going to show  decline from Guitar Hero 5.

Conduit 2- I think this game is going to have a bad outing based on the results of hardcore sequels like Red Steel 2 and NMH2.  This game is also going to get pounded in by Goldeneye and Black Ops.

NBA Jam- I thought this game was a surefire million-dollar hit for the Wii, but now that EA is giving it away to HD users I could easily see NBA Jam Wii not being able to break a million.  If there is no online, sales won't be that great.

Vanquish- I can easily see this game being a second-coming of Bayonetta-- a great game that gets ignored.