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I can't wait for both reach and gt5 to be released so this debate about which one will sell better can finally be put to rest.

Same but leading up to it was fun.

I look at this differently.

When you look at games as a whole and popular linear franchises (IE:  Gran Turismo 2 / Gran Turismo 3  or Metal Gear Solid 1 / MGS2  etc etc)  a common phenomenon seems to happen.   The first game on that system is generally the biggest selling version of the game.    

The only time, I have truly witnessed this differentiate is when the first game on that respective system is actually the  'IP breaking in game' or in otherwords (The absolute first game of the series.   See Halo 1 versus Halo 2 both on Xbox  or Uncharted 1 versus Uncharted 2) both on PS3. 

For example,  Gran Turismo 1  sold   10.85 Million copies  vs Gran Turismo 2  9.3 million coppies  during the PS1 generation.   However, when Gran Turismo 3 was released on the PS2 (First GT game on a new console) it ended up selling 14.89 million copies.  The follow up Gran Turismo 4 sold only 10.55 million copies.

Another example,  Metal Gear Solid 1 sold around  5.59 million copies on PS1.  MGS2 sold 5.58 million on PS2 (First MGS game on a new console) which clearly outsold MGS3 at 4.07 million copies.

By all accounts God of War II was a better game than God of War I but it failed to outsell God of War I.  God of War III on the other hand (First God of War game on a new console) looks to probably outsell both.   However, I would wager that if a God of War IV were released it would probably sell less than GoW3 has. 

I feel like that about Uncharted 3 vs Uncharted 2.   If there is a 3rd Uncharted released I would wager it sells less than 2 has sold. 

The real concern as it relates to Gran Turismo sales is did that prologue cannabalize some potential Gran Turismo 5 sales?  It's certainly possible as 5 million is not chump change.   Could GT5 have fed the appetite a little to much of it's fanbase by releasing prologue essentially losing sales?  Will probably depend on how much content is put into GT5.

But then as it relates to Halo,  did Halo 3 peak it's sales as the first Halo sequel on a new system with Halo 3 and then Halo ODST?    I mean if you own a 360 at this point and have an interest in shooters wouldn't you own Halo 3 /ODST already?  Halo has already had a full fledged game series on their console / Gran Turismo really hasn't. 

I think Reach will sell a truckload of copies but I don't see it surpassing Halo 3 unless they have completely revolutionized FPS gaming (Which I don't believe they have,  I think this is more of a Halo HD for their fanbase).   I see Reach being front loaded in sales where as Gran Turismo will be more steady and consistent.   I think Gran Turismo 5 may end up slightly higher, but they will be comparable.

I look at this differently.

When you look at games as a whole and popular linear franchises (IE:  Gran Turismo 2 / Gran Turismo 3  or Metal Gear Solid 1 / MGS2  etc etc)  a common phenomenon seems to happen.   The first game on that system is generally the biggest selling version of the game.    

The only time, I have truly witnessed this differentiate is when the first game on that respective system is actually the  'IP breaking in game' or in otherwords (The absolute first game of the series.   See Halo 1 versus Halo 2 both on Xbox  or Uncharted 1 versus Uncharted 2) both on PS3. 

For example,  Gran Turismo 1  sold   10.85 Million copies  vs Gran Turismo 2  9.3 million coppies  during the PS1 generation.   However, when Gran Turismo 3 was released on the PS2 (First GT game on a new console) it ended up selling 14.89 million copies.  The follow up Gran Turismo 4 sold only 10.55 million copies.

Another example,  Metal Gear Solid 1 sold around  5.59 million copies on PS1.  MGS2 sold 5.58 million on PS2 (First MGS game on a new console) which clearly outsold MGS3 at 4.07 million copies.

By all accounts God of War II was a better game than God of War I but it failed to outsell God of War I.  God of War III on the other hand (First God of War game on a new console) looks to probably outsell both.   However, I would wager that if a God of War IV were released it would probably sell less than GoW3 has. 

I feel like that about Uncharted 3 vs Uncharted 2.   If there is a 3rd Uncharted released I would wager it sells less than 2 has sold. 

The real concern as it relates to Gran Turismo sales is did that prologue cannabalize some potential Gran Turismo 5 sales?  It's certainly possible as 5 million is not chump change.   Could GT5 have fed the appetite a little to much of it's fanbase by releasing prologue essentially losing sales?  Will probably depend on how much content is put into GT5.

But then as it relates to Halo,  did Halo 3 peak it's sales as the first Halo sequel on a new system with Halo 3 and then Halo ODST?    I mean if you own a 360 at this point and have an interest in shooters wouldn't you own Halo 3 /ODST already?  Halo has already had a full fledged game series on their console / Gran Turismo really hasn't. 

I think Reach will sell a truckload of copies but I don't see it surpassing Halo 3 unless they have completely revolutionized FPS gaming (Which I don't believe they have,  I think this is more of a Halo HD for their fanbase).   I see Reach being front loaded in sales where as Gran Turismo will be more steady and consistent.   I think Gran Turismo 5 may end up slightly higher, but they will be comparable.

Why does it matter? Thats what I came here to ask.

You know, it's possible that these scenarios could also affect the sales of Halo Reach, especially seeing how big the FPS genre is nowadays.

Halo Reach is not going to have any problems outselling Gran Turismo 5 and I will tell you all why.  If you look at the history of the Gran Turismo series Europe has always been the biggest market for the game but America has always been the second largest.

With each iteration of the Gran Turismo series the Americas have always sold 2x as many copies of Gran Turismo when compared to Japan.

http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=turismo&publisher=&console=&genre=&minSales=0&results=50&sort=Total

This means that they would need America to show the game a lot of support for it to have a shot at outselling Halo Reach which isn't going to happen.  Because this gen the fps is king in America and so is COD and Halo.  And no Cod is not going to hurt Halo because each time a main entry in the halo series has released in the same year as a Cod title Halo has outsold that particular Cod title.

Edit) Just some further comments

If you look at the past and current Grand Theft Auto has always been just as popular or more than Gran Turismo in Europe so we can probably look at how many people bought GTA 4 to see what optimal sales would be like in Europe.  It's currently #2 in sales with 3.43 million sold in Europe according to vgchartz.  MW 2 is in front of it with 3.71.

The jrpg has always sold best in the past and currently in Japan.  The bestselling title on the ps3 in Japan is Final Fantasy 13 with 1.85 million sold.

So lets say that GT 5 sales 2million in japan (only GT 1 has sold more than that), 4 million in Europe(making it the bestselling ps3 title in Europe to date), and 2.7 million in the Americas( putting it slightly behind GTA 4 since GTA has always been way bigger than GT in America)

That equals 8.7 million ltd sales. 

Let's say Halo Reach does 7million in the Americas (placing it between Halo 2 and 3 sales) and 2 million in Europe (once again placing it in between Halo 2 and 3). That's 9 million in sales and it doesn't have to break any records to do it.

Since Halo Reach is being bundled and also the fact that this is Bungies last game I expect sales to be way higher than 9 million.

You missed GT5 Prologue and PSP Gran Turismo. Does it include PC sales?

That is something like a 300 million consoles vs 66 million odd.

HALO series is way more impressive sales wise....HUGE ATTACH RATE!

On ONLY 65 MILLION consoles HALO series sold that much in xbox's lifetime.

Compare that with the 300 million playstations that have been sold.

INSANE ATTACH RATIO for xbox 360....simply amazing

Not really fair when you consider that GT1 and 2 were released on PS1 and Halo didn't even exist.  Drop the PS1 generation and just compare the last two generations and the Halo series looks dominate.

Gran Turismo 3 & 4 = 25.44million

Halo 1, 2, & 3 = 25.96 million