kain_kusanagi said:
Compare individual sales. I'll use your numbers. GT 1 and 2 came a generation before the original Xbox, so I'm going to throw them out for the purpose comparing sales from now looking back. What was the last proper game in each series? Halo 3 and GT4. Add on packs, retail demos, spin offs, and retail expansion packs don't matter. All we need to look at is the main entry of the series looking back from now. Halo 3 outsold GT4 with far less Xbox 360s on the market than PS2s. Before that would have been GT3 and Halo 2. GT3 outsold Halo 2. So while the GT series has seen diminishing sales Halo has been increasing. If you look at the trends the main games in each series you will see that GT peaked at GT3 and dropped significatly with the release of GT4. Halo has increased in sales with each proper release. Remember, we are only looking at proper sequals. The reason for this could be anything from heavy competition in the high quality racing sim genre to a shift in gamer taste from racing games to first persion shooters. It doesn't matter why this is, just that it is. GT is not as widely popular as it once was. In my opinion GT5 will sell between 8 and 10 million world wide lifetime. Halo Reach will sell between 9 and 11 million world wide lifetime. I base this on the success of the last full main games in each series. |
I look at this differently.
When you look at games as a whole and popular linear franchises (IE: Gran Turismo 2 / Gran Turismo 3 or Metal Gear Solid 1 / MGS2 etc etc) a common phenomenon seems to happen. The first game on that system is generally the biggest selling version of the game.
The only time, I have truly witnessed this differentiate is when the first game on that respective system is actually the 'IP breaking in game' or in otherwords (The absolute first game of the series. See Halo 1 versus Halo 2 both on Xbox or Uncharted 1 versus Uncharted 2) both on PS3.
For example, Gran Turismo 1 sold 10.85 Million copies vs Gran Turismo 2 9.3 million coppies during the PS1 generation. However, when Gran Turismo 3 was released on the PS2 (First GT game on a new console) it ended up selling 14.89 million copies. The follow up Gran Turismo 4 sold only 10.55 million copies.
Another example, Metal Gear Solid 1 sold around 5.59 million copies on PS1. MGS2 sold 5.58 million on PS2 (First MGS game on a new console) which clearly outsold MGS3 at 4.07 million copies.
By all accounts God of War II was a better game than God of War I but it failed to outsell God of War I. God of War III on the other hand (First God of War game on a new console) looks to probably outsell both. However, I would wager that if a God of War IV were released it would probably sell less than GoW3 has.
I feel like that about Uncharted 3 vs Uncharted 2. If there is a 3rd Uncharted released I would wager it sells less than 2 has sold.
The real concern as it relates to Gran Turismo sales is did that prologue cannabalize some potential Gran Turismo 5 sales? It's certainly possible as 5 million is not chump change. Could GT5 have fed the appetite a little to much of it's fanbase by releasing prologue essentially losing sales? Will probably depend on how much content is put into GT5.
But then as it relates to Halo, did Halo 3 peak it's sales as the first Halo sequel on a new system with Halo 3 and then Halo ODST? I mean if you own a 360 at this point and have an interest in shooters wouldn't you own Halo 3 /ODST already? Halo has already had a full fledged game series on their console / Gran Turismo really hasn't.
I think Reach will sell a truckload of copies but I don't see it surpassing Halo 3 unless they have completely revolutionized FPS gaming (Which I don't believe they have, I think this is more of a Halo HD for their fanbase). I see Reach being front loaded in sales where as Gran Turismo will be more steady and consistent. I think Gran Turismo 5 may end up slightly higher, but they will be comparable.
