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Forums - Sales - Metroid: Other M sales predictions thread

Khuutra said:
oni-link said:

No you're wrong Khuutra, this thing is kinda' like basketball in which you can't determine the outcome during the first quarter of the game when there is still 3 more quarters to go.  With only 7 weeks of sale this isn't even the full first quarter...not by a loooooonnnngggg shot!!!  This game will hit 800K by Aug2011 and probably 1M by the end of it's lifetime.  Not bad for a game that did not score as critically better than either Corruption, Echoes or Prime.  Speaking of which the last two console managed to average only 1.3M between them so I am still waiting for your fantasy that Nintendo SAID: they expected to sell 3M copies of Other M!!!! 

Thel ast line has already been dismissed; they expected it to break the 2 million barrier, though, and it will never get that far.

Your analogy is flawed, because sales patterns and basketball games do not follow similar trends. You can't predict (entirely) how three quarters will go based on the first; in sales for an established series, you can make a pretty good guess, especially for a game that dropped as fast and as hard as this one has.

1 million is not a good number for this game. You're wrong.

You're logic reminds me of the naysayers that said the same thing about Punch-Out and WarioLand: Shake it!!!  It'll hit 600K by the end of Christmas, 700K-800K by 8/2011,  and 900-1.0M lifetime (depending on how long Wii stays on the market until the next console).  So YOU ARE THE ONE THAT IS DEFINETELY WITHOUT A DOUBT WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




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oni-link said:
Khuutra said:
oni-link said:

No you're wrong Khuutra, this thing is kinda' like basketball in which you can't determine the outcome during the first quarter of the game when there is still 3 more quarters to go.  With only 7 weeks of sale this isn't even the full first quarter...not by a loooooonnnngggg shot!!!  This game will hit 800K by Aug2011 and probably 1M by the end of it's lifetime.  Not bad for a game that did not score as critically better than either Corruption, Echoes or Prime.  Speaking of which the last two console managed to average only 1.3M between them so I am still waiting for your fantasy that Nintendo SAID: they expected to sell 3M copies of Other M!!!! 

Thel ast line has already been dismissed; they expected it to break the 2 million barrier, though, and it will never get that far.

Your analogy is flawed, because sales patterns and basketball games do not follow similar trends. You can't predict (entirely) how three quarters will go based on the first; in sales for an established series, you can make a pretty good guess, especially for a game that dropped as fast and as hard as this one has.

1 million is not a good number for this game. You're wrong.

You're logic reminds me of the naysayers that said the same thing about Punch-Out and WarioLand: Shake it!!!  It'll hit 600K by the end of Christmas, 700K-800K by 8/2011,  and 900-1.0M lifetime (depending on how long Wii stays on the market until the next console).  So YOU ARE THE ONE THAT IS DEFINETELY WITHOUT A DOUBT WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Are you capable of intelligent conversation?



@ khuutra. They expected to reach t.5 to 2 Mio. 1.5 is the goal, not 2 ;) Maybe they HOPED to gain new users. But expectations usually don´t end at the higher end. It is an establiched series, BUT it is a new direction. it´s logical, that it won´t sell so much in the first weeks of release... I don´t understand why you expect, that a game with a new gameplay, which changes a lot in the metroid franchise, will sell very fast?



darkgemini said:

@ khuutra. They expected to reach t.5 to 2 Mio. 1.5 is the goal, not 2 ;) Maybe they HOPED to gain new users. But expectations usually don´t end at the higher end. It is an establiched series, BUT it is a new direction. it´s logical, that it won´t sell so much in the first weeks of release... I don´t understand why you expect, that a game with a new gameplay, which changes a lot in the metroid franchise, will sell very fast?

No, they expected it to "break the 1.5-2 million barrier", which would place it above 2 million.



darkgemini said:

1,5 Mio will be ok, 2 Mio will be a success (but I don´t think it will reach this number).

I expect it will reach 1.15, less successful than expected, but not that bomb, many people here say it is ^^ That´s all.

I just think, that Metroid usually has legs. In addition to that, this is something NEW, new things always need some time (and have legs, too).

And now lets have a look at the european sales, which are the main reason, Other M sells less. It is a "classic game", looking at the classic game sales in Europe, they never sold that much than the prime series.....

Metroid 2: 0,34

Metroid: 0,34

Metroid Fusion: 0,29

Super Metroid: 0,13

OM: Actually 0,7.( 5k per week at the moment)

I´m sure it will reach 200 -300 k in Europe. In Japan, it will outsell Echoes next week, it already sold more than corruption (!). It is not that bad. And yes, when this game will have legs, it can be successful. It CAN be. I´m not saying that it is or it will be! I just repeat, that we need to wait and dont´t judge too early...

Other M sales are declining, and if it continues at this rate, it will sell less than the last Metroid. You believe in an inversion of this decline in sales, and your arguments for it are:

- "Metroid usually has legs" -> this has already been proven to be false;

- "this is something NEW, new things always need some time (and have legs, too)"  -> do you have data to backup that a game, just because it is "new", relates to having legs? I do not see the relation;

- Metroid is selling less in Europe but in Japan is selling more and this can somewhat balance it. -> Well, it is also selling less in America, and after 7 weeks (and using VGChartz numbers), what Japan sold more (~ 13,500 difference with Corruption) is overshadowed (less than 5%) by what was sold less in the rest of the world (~ -283,000 difference). Other M is selling around 2.000 copies per week in Japan. It needs to continue like this for 2.5 - 3 years (quick-low estimate) to get to the same level as Corruption worldwide (probably more, since the American numbers might be overtracked).

Conclusion: "...it can be successful. It CAN be. I´m not saying that it is or it will be! I just repeat, that we need to wait and dont´t judge too early..."

We need to wait... for what? What can revert the situation? Christmas sales? If you cannot give a reason for defending that position, a reasonable person will think that the only reason for you to believe that Other M will revert its current tendency is because... you wish that it does. And that hardly makes for a discussion/conversation.

 

If you think 1.5 is ok, and 2.0 is a success, what do you call if it is below 1.5? I think the "fail vs. bomb vs. mega-flop" discussion is kind of pointless, but it is clear that sales deparment in companies usually define failure and success comparing expected sales with actual sales. Changing goalposts by saying it is a success because it had profit or because critics liked it is not honest.

Besides, in a post in this thread you asked someone for "evidence" for their claims. It is only fair if you are subjected to the same standard.



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I think everyone is getting too emotional here.

We need to let it lie for a few weeks, see how holidays pick it up.

We may see a bundle with it, we may see a good rise....we may see promotions/discounts

Basically what I'm seeing here is people who dislike it are harping on and on about how its "failed/flop/mega flop/unsuccessful"

The people who have liked it are saying we should give it more time and that expectations aren't a good metric of deciding if something flopped.

I think we all agree with the statement that the sales have been disappointing, but in terms calling it a "flop/disaster/mega flop/bomb" no-one is winning here, lets give it 4 more weeks before coming to a unanimous conclusion.



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:

I think everyone is getting too emotional here.

We need to let it lie for a few weeks, see how holidays pick it up.

We may see a bundle with it, we may see a good rise....we may see promotions/discounts

Basically what I'm seeing here is people who dislike it are harping on and on about how its "failed/flop/mega flop/unsuccessful"

The people who have liked it are saying we should give it more time and that expectations aren't a good metric of deciding if something flopped.

I think we all agree with the statement that the sales have been disappointing, but in terms calling it a "flop/disaster/mega flop/bomb" no-one is winning here, lets give it 4 more weeks before coming to a unanimous conclusion.

No. I've been updating weekly since this thread started and will continue to do so.



"Unanimous conclusion", lol.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

Khuutra said:
darthdevidem01 said:

I think everyone is getting too emotional here.

We need to let it lie for a few weeks, see how holidays pick it up.

We may see a bundle with it, we may see a good rise....we may see promotions/discounts

Basically what I'm seeing here is people who dislike it are harping on and on about how its "failed/flop/mega flop/unsuccessful"

The people who have liked it are saying we should give it more time and that expectations aren't a good metric of deciding if something flopped.

I think we all agree with the statement that the sales have been disappointing, but in terms calling it a "flop/disaster/mega flop/bomb" no-one is winning here, lets give it 4 more weeks before coming to a unanimous conclusion.

No. I've been updating weekly since this thread started and will continue to do so.

Yes do so.

But both you and demotruk have been pretty harsh towards oni-link and the other guy.

Lets cool down for a few weeks.

@Demotruk-San

tehehe



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:
Khuutra said:

No. I've been updating weekly since this thread started and will continue to do so.

Yes do so.

But both you and demotruk have been pretty harsh towards oni-link and the other guy.

Lets cool down for a few weeks.

@Demotruk-San

tehehe

I'm not being harsh, I am being honest. I will admit, however, that lately I have begun to lose my patience with people rejecting an objective reality.