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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is It Possible For GT5 To OutSell Halo Reach Lifetime?...I Think So!

Smidlee on 21 June 2010
Slimebeast said:

One thing is for sure, GT5 will have a very hard time to break the 10 million barrier, and if it will it won't be by much. It's not only that Playstation 3 is smaller than PS1&PS2, it's also the fact that the care game genre isn't as big as before.

The problem is to predict Halo: Reach. Is Halo on a decline? Will Reach be able to outsell Halo 3 or not? At the moment I feel it won't, but I believe it will pass 10 million copies.

So Halo: Reach will outsell GT5 by at least a small margin.

I disagree car games are not as big but that's a lot more selection of racing games. I can see some casual racers who bought GT in the past may be satified with Forza 3 and skip GT5. When it comes to serious sims, we have Rfactor and Iracing with laser scan tracks. With this in mind , I think Halo will outsell GT5. I hope I'm wrong as like love racing sim more than FPS.

 



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fastyxx on 21 June 2010
BMaker11 said:
c0rd said:

Alright, time to crush this attach rate argument here...

The obvious problem with comparing GT3's attach rates (now) with Halo 3's attach rate, is the massive amount of PS2's sold after GT3 was no longer being bought. To solve this, I'll show you specific dates in which GT3 had already sold most of its copies (with not too many PS2's sold):

Week ending August 19th, 2001: Japan's GT3 sales at about 1.7mil with 5.5mil PS3's sold, or a 31% attach rate. That's close enough to the current userbase of the PS3, so if GT5 is a hit / still popular there, we can expect at least 1.5mil from that region.

End of March 2003 (see page 31): Over 11 million copies of GT3 were shipped by the end of March 03. Since under 2 million were shipped to Japan, we know that at least 9 million were shipped outside Japan, so... That's over 9 million GT3 copies shipped to ~35 million PS2 consoles sold (VGC), likely close to a 25% attach rate in the west.

Attach rate really doesn't tell us much, since there are too many outside factors (like PS2's extremely fast rate of consoles sold), I don't think it's worth putting that much weight on.


As for other factors:

While people have mentioned Halo's popularity has constantly been increasing, the same can be said for Gran Turismo. Although the second title per console always performs worse, the first of the console (GT1, GT3, soon GT5) performs well. The exception here is European sales, which increased with every release besides GT2. Expect GT5's Europe to be nearly on par with Halo in America.

The increased competition (such as Forza 3) may mean less GT sales, but the same can be said for Halo. CoD is surely the bigger franchise out of the two, yet people think Halo will still do fine. I think the same will probably happen for GT5.

Bundles. I have no idea how many American copies of GT3 were sold due to bundles, so this could hurt the past sales' arguments for GT5 by quite a bit.


As for my prediction? I see GT5 selling at least 1.5mil in Japan, 3 million in America, and 5.5 million in Europe, which would clear 10. I just don't know how far it can go after that, though.

#threadkiller 


I still think this is over-simplsitic.  Just as Halo has even the casuals buying it since it has a reputation as being one of THE games to get for a new Xbox owner, so did GT3 back when it launched.  I had people who NEVER would play anything remotely as hardcore with that game in their collections.  I just don't know that Gran Turismo is going to pick up those people now, the way that a Halo or Mario or COD all do.  

Remember that a good chunk of PS3 and 360 owners at this point in the gen never played a PS2 or original Xbox.  You've got a whole generation of gamers who have been playing fewer than the five years GT has been absent, which is clearly the downside of NOT iterating your game every other year at most.  Those consumers need to be re-won.  That's a tough battle for any franchise, especially a driving sim, these days in that there's just so much big-name, high profile stuff in the stream now.  We're spoiled with getting great title after great title on all the systems, but it's that much harder to really carve out that blockbuster space.  Look at how rare it is to even hit 5 million on any one console.

GT5 looks like it might deserve 10 million in sales, but I think it's going to have a hard time getting there.  Driving games as a whole are not as popular, and there's a whole lot more competition.



Can't we all just get along and play our games in peace?

Simulacrum on 21 June 2010

It should..Will take extra half year tho.



 

 

Take my love, take my land..

thismeintiel on 21 June 2010
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:

its been confirmed today that GT5 has a weather system, track editor and go karts! seriously i think this is going to be the best selling in the series even beating GT3 sales of 14 million plus!

Holy crap!  If that's true, than I think your prediction may be right.  It sure will help push sales past 10 mil.

@ hus

Yea, it's funny how 360 guys ignore the fact that GT5 has those brands now.  As if it won't help sales at all.  It will probably help sales in the US.  And it sure as hell will help sales in EU.  I doubt it would happen,but it would be funny if Halo: Reach sold less than Halo 3.  

What's even more funny is the biased logic people are using to try to "prove" GT5 will do less than Reach, or even less than previous GT's.  I mean first you got people saying Reach will have less competition than before.  Really?  What about Medal of Honor, which is releasing a month after Reach?  More importantly, what about CoD:Black Ops, which releases not even 2 whole months after Reach?  Are we really going to ignore the fact that the CoD has grown to become one of the largest FPS franchise, rivaling even Halo. 

And people are saying that GT5 has more competition this year and list EVERY racing game that has come out this gen.  Again, really?  Are any of those franchises releasing anytime near the GT5 release?  Not to my knowledge.  Furthermore, when has any game in those franchises proved to be as big a seller as a GT game?  And on a consistant basis?  People act like Forza is this HUGE competition against GT.  How is that when the 360 offerings of those games haven't even sold more than GT5P, a glorified demo?  In fact, Forza 3, even with people hyping it to be bigger and better than GT5, doesn't look like it will reach the sales of Forza 2.  I may barely make it to 3 mil.



 

iWarMachine on 21 June 2010

thread bookmarked for crow eating...

WTF? someone said that Halo:Reach can sell 25M units??????????? o.o

O.O



I'm Back! - Proud owner of the best doomed handheld of all time!

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Michael-5 on 22 June 2010
ElGranCabeza said:
Michael-5 said:
ElGranCabeza said:
Michael-5 said:

To Solid_Snake4RD

 

Yes the Halo Franchise is growing in popularity, and there is no indication that it is “stabilizing.” Halo has sold 2-3 million more units per main franchise game, abd the X-Box consoles have become more and more popular over time. 4 years into this generation, and the 360 is still holding second.

 

Halo 3 sold 8.1 million copies when the 360 only had 17.7 million units available to play on. Now the 360 has over 40 million units, and that number will easily be above 45 million by the end of the year. How can you still believe that Halo Reach will not outsell Halo 3? It’s obvious that it will. Halo 3 was a 9.5 title, if 85% of Halo 3 owners get Reach and 10% of  the last 22 ( 5 for the rest of the year) million 360 owners get Reach, it will outsell Halo 3.

 

Halo Reach could sell up to 25 million units potentially, do you not understand how popular this franchise has gotten? The X-Box 360 has twice the install base it had during the launch of any prior Halo title, that means it could double any prior Halo games.

 

You can’t just make a response saying my post is flawed, it has so many weaknesses, and make an extremely arrogant and weak response like this.

 

GT outselling Halo is your opinion, and you have no evidence to support your claims.

 

Yes GT3 sold on PS2 before it sold 136 million units, However that very first year it released the game sold about 1.5 million copies (less then Forza 3 look it up!), and PS2 had 20 million units out by then. That still hold the same attach rate as if I gave the game 4 years to accumulate sales. 15 million on a console with 100 million is 15%, 1.5 million on a console with 20 million is 7.5%. Either way it’s much much less then the 25-35% Halo games get, and if I apply that logic, Halo 3 gets an attach rate of 45% and Halo 1 is over 80% since it was a launch title.

 

Your response is just ignorant. Don’t waste my time, do some research.

 

To Hynad: (Regarding the point of these long posts)

 

After I wrote my massive post, I was thinking, why did I bother with that? I came to the conclusion that I really get annoyed by arrogant people. It’s not really about the sales for me, but I’m surprised at some of the Halo numbers I got (soooo high!). I’m just annoyed that some people believe without a doubt that GT5 will be that one super high selling PS3 exclusive franchise. It won’t! PS3 is selling well now because of the huge PS3 slim/price cut they announced last year, but I don’t think that momentum is going to last. This site is mostly composed of PS3 fanboys, and fangirls, and just the stupidity of some of their comments, without any evidence to back it up astounds me.

 

If you look at my profile I have made like 10 posts before here, and after this I do not intend to make any more. I’ll let dumb people be dumb, and wait for the numbers to compound, and summarize all the data on my Game Trailers account (Same name). I’ve been keeping up with sales data for 3 years now, so I think I understand this stuff more then most people.

 

To Solid_Snake4RD (Regarding Competition)

 

The same year Halo 3 was released Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, The Orange Box, and Uncharted, three of the best shooters this generation were released.

 

This fall Halo Reach as to compete with Call of Duty: Black Ops, and Medal of Honour. Much less competition there buddy.

 

Gran Turismo 3 only had to compete against Midnight Club.

 

Gran Turismo 5 has to compete against Forza, Test Drive, Need for Speed, Burnout, Blur, Race Pro, Split/Second, Project Gotham Racing, etc. Remember GT games have accumulating sales, so anything that launches next year is competition.

 

So this whole competition argument favours Halo. Halo has less competition, and Gran Turismo has more. Just more reason to believe Halo Reach will sell 15-20 million.

 

To Hynad: (Regarding your response)

 

I’m not saying I’m right, I could be very very wrong, but almost all evidence I see in this thread supports Halo Reach drastically outselling Gran Turismo 5 sales. I’m asking people to debate this, but biased on the evidence people give in their responses, I don’t think anyone has a good reason to think otherwise. Most people just say, GT5 will outsell Halo because GT 5 is a bigger franchise, or some other silly reason, and I show that no GT is not a bigger franchise, only 1 in 10 console owners pick up a GT game where Halo gets a lot more sales.

 

Like I said boilmaker and hyruken, only intelligent responses, and because of boilmakers response, I am going to make another comment saying my direct opinion (which I haven’t expressed yet)

 

Seriously, I ask you guys to debate this. I only called some people fanboys because I haven’t heard anybody here make a silly comment saying “Halo will outsell GT5 because it’s a better game” or something silly like that. Most of the Halo comments seem supported, but the GT arguments lack foundation.

 

I’ll stop using the term fanboys, I was just getting annoyed at the arrogance of some of the comments.

 

To rossoner (Regarding Halo Reach Pre-orders)

 

Halo Reach has less americas pre-orders then Halo 3, but the game isn’t due for an additional 3 months. Halo 3 only had a little over 1 million pre-orders, and at this rate Halo Reach will likely double Halo 3 pre-orders.

 

To hyruken: (Regarding PS2 year one sales)

 

I remember the PS2 was like $500 for the first few months, and I got mine for $300 about 6 months after launch. Good point, it’s silly how people come after you for a mis-understanding and not me. Are my points accepted then? Does everyone agree with me that Reach will outsell GT5?

 

Now I’m just being an ass, good comment Hyruken.

 

To jarrod: (Regarding Bundles)

 

Nintendo bundled Wii Sports to show the innovation of that console. It severaly helped increase sales, but overall does not cost the same as other full priced games to develop. Wii would probably only of had a $20-30 price difference without the bundle.

 

As for GT5, they should bundle it with a Slim PS3. MGS4 is the best selling exclusive PS3, and it was launched bundled. I remember specifically because the MGS4 edition PS3 was the last backward compatible PS3, and my friend picked it up.

 

A bundled GT5 will defiantly boost sales, but I disagree with you on your original post. I think Reach will outsell GT5 regardless. Past GT games were bundled too (like GT3 and GT4), so I still think 8 million for GT5.

 

Good comment

 

To cOrd (Regarding attach rates)

 

First of all this comment look intelligent, so thanks for posting. You gave a world wide attach rate of Gran Turismo 3 as 25%, so I will accept that. However compare GT3 to Halo 3. 8.1 million units on a console with 17.7 million units by the end of 2007. That’s a 45.8% attach rate, almost double Gran Turismo’s :P

 

As for Gran Turismo gaining popularity, good point, but GT4 sold only 2/3rds as well as GT3, where GT2 only sold about one and a half million less then GT1. A significantly bigger drop, so we can’t assume Gran Turismo is becoming more popular. Halo on the other hand has seen a steady increase in sale, not only of the games, but the comic books too. It’s very likely for Reach sales to surpass 14 million (following the trend halo games have had), but it could do even better since the install base is twice as large as it has ever been before.

 

As for competition, both Halos had a Call of Duty to compete with, Halo 3 had Modern Warfare, Reach has Black Ops. The fact remains that infinity ward Call of Duty games not only sell better, but get better reviews, and until Modern Warfare, Call of Duty was a 1.5 million copy game. Modern Warfare was a much stronger competition then Black Ops was. Halo 3 also had The Orange Box too.

 

Gran Turismo 4 had to compete with Forza 1, but due to the X-Box’s lack of popularity that’s not really that much competition, and GT4 still suffered sales wise. Forza 3 is the most highly rated racing game this generation, it’s more competition Gran Turismo ever had to deal with.

 

Thanks for the comments people


Holy shit, I don't mean to offend you because you obviously put a lot of thought into your replies, but people are not gonna read your posts if all of them are that big. Just saying.


I know..... Sad because I made A LOT of good points. At least after I made them people shut up...

Still


Maybe people didn't reply because they didn't read your points? I know I didn't. I know you're passionate about this and it shows, but you gotta think about the other people man lol


Lets just say I have trouble summarizing my point. I feel I have to explain things in detail in order for people to understand my opinionsupporting evidence.

I also replied to about everyone lol



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Michael-5 on 22 June 2010
ElGranCabeza said:
Michael-5 said:

Now here is my opinion, I'll try to make it short.

Halo games have increased in popularity over time. 6.4 million for Halo 1, 8.4 million for Halo 2, and 11 million currently for Halo 3 (this could go up to as high as 12 million in the long run). X-Box console are more popular then past X-Box's ever were, Halo Reach literally has double the install base, or more then any past Halo title. Halo 3 ODST, a Halo game on a current gen system without a public online multiplayer mode sold 5.2 million units, and it's still going up! 2.7 million gamers played the Halo Reach Beta. This is also the last Halo game by Bungie. Many factors tell me that Halo Reach will be the best selling Halo title ever.

I predict Halo Reach will sell 14.5-17.5 million copies, but I acknowledge that this game could potentially break 20 million sales.

Now Gran Turismo 5 is being sold late into the PS3's life cycle (lets say mid-life), so it's sales figures are more likely to match GT2 and GT4 figures then GT3. Except for GT3, Gran Turismo games usually sell around 10 million units, however a large portion of this games sales are to casual gamers. Since the PS3 console lacks the popularity, and hype, and market dominance the PS1 and PS2 did I think GT5 will sell worse then any past GT game. Gran Turismo also has a proper compeditor now, Forza, and Forza 2 sold 4 million units. Forza 3 is selling better, but my point is those customers already switched to a 360, and unless they buy a second console cannot purchase GT, and this includes many GT fans and hardcore gamers who would normally have bought GT if PS3 had the market dominance PS1 and PS2 had. However this is the first Gran Turismo title with brand named (not knock off) Ferrari's, Bugatti's, and Lamborshinis. Still the game does not have Porsche (only knock off Porsches), and does not feature proper simulated damge. GT only has cosmetic damge to cars, and this generation thats just not enough. Also the playstation has a significantly weaker hold on American game sales, and that is where past GT games trived.

I predict Gran Turismo 5 to sell 7-10 million copies world wide, but I aknowledge that if GT6 does not come out onto the PS3 and the PS3 lasts for an additional 5 years before it is replaced, this game could get up to 12 million sales.

So to me, and I have backed this up with lots of supporting evidence, Halo Reach will definatly outsell Gran Turismo 5. The real question is will Gran Turismo 5 outsell Halo 3 world wide?? That I can't predict, but it will come close.


Still a little long but much better, actually readable now. There's no way Halo Reach sells 20 million units unless they bundle it with everything like Kinect and launch it at U$40 like Forza 3. 14.5 million is also pushing it. I'm gonna say 10 million, just under Halo 3. your GT5 seems about right, but I'll say 9 million even if GT6 never comes out on PS3.


Like I said Halo has been increasing in popularity over time, Halo 3 nearly doubled Halo 1 sales, it still might, you never know. I think Halo Reach will at least top Halo 3 sales, the install base is twice as large as any prior Halo game launched to.

Besides Modern Warfare 2 outsold Modern Warfare 1 by about 25%, and honestly the game wasn't really that different. Similar graphics, same multiplayer with a few new perks and maps, even shorter campaign, but it had spec ops. If Reach sell 25% better then Halo 3, thats still 14-15 million.

Only one way to find out....oh damn it's going to be a long wait...



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Michael-5 on 22 June 2010
RageBot said:
Michael-5 said:

I predict Halo Reach will sell 14.5-17.5 million copies, but I acknowledge that this game could potentially break 20 million sales.


I think you shouldn't have written this line, if up till now pepole didn't bother reading your posts because they were too long, now they won't bother reading them because you show a severe flaw in your understanding of how sales work.

No sir, I do not lack an understanding in how sales work, but I beleive you do. Halo Reach is being released onto a console wwith twice the install base of any prior Halo title. So no matter what, Halo Reach sales will be better then Halo 3 sales.

Not only that, but look at Modern Warfare. MW2 outsold MW1 by about 40% already, and it hasn't even been an entire year. Why? Modern Warfare 2 is no better of a game then Modern Warfare 1, I would say except for Spec ops, it's actually a worse game. Yet 40% more sales? Intall bases are important for mass market FPS titles. If Halo Reach sells 40% better, the game is over 15 million units already, but I beleive it could do a lot better.

Now please, if you're not going to bother reading my posts, or bring any supporting evidence, stop making posts simply to insult others.



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Michael-5 on 22 June 2010
thismeintiel said:
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:

its been confirmed today that GT5 has a weather system, track editor and go karts! seriously i think this is going to be the best selling in the series even beating GT3 sales of 14 million plus!

Holy crap!  If that's true, than I think your prediction may be right.  It sure will help push sales past 10 mil.

@ hus

Yea, it's funny how 360 guys ignore the fact that GT5 has those brands now.  As if it won't help sales at all.  It will probably help sales in the US.  And it sure as hell will help sales in EU.  I doubt it would happen,but it would be funny if Halo: Reach sold less than Halo 3.  

What's even more funny is the biased logic people are using to try to "prove" GT5 will do less than Reach, or even less than previous GT's.  I mean first you got people saying Reach will have less competition than before.  Really?  What about Medal of Honor, which is releasing a month after Reach?  More importantly, what about CoD:Black Ops, which releases not even 2 whole months after Reach?  Are we really going to ignore the fact that the CoD has grown to become one of the largest FPS franchise, rivaling even Halo. 

And people are saying that GT5 has more competition this year and list EVERY racing game that has come out this gen.  Again, really?  Are any of those franchises releasing anytime near the GT5 release?  Not to my knowledge.  Furthermore, when has any game in those franchises proved to be as big a seller as a GT game?  And on a consistant basis?  People act like Forza is this HUGE competition against GT.  How is that when the 360 offerings of those games haven't even sold more than GT5P, a glorified demo?  In fact, Forza 3, even with people hyping it to be bigger and better than GT5, doesn't look like it will reach the sales of Forza 2.  I may barely make it to 3 mil.

So Many things wrong here.

1. People are proving Halo Reach will outsell GT5 because there is supporting evidence for this, where I see little evidence supporting GT5

2. Halo 3 competed against Modern Warfare, and the Orange Box. Half Life 2 and Modern Warfare are among the best rated FPS titles. Yes Reach has Black Ops and Medal of Honor, but do no not agree that Modern Warfare > Black Ops, Orange Box > Medal of Honor in terms of competition? Why do you keep ignoring the competition Halo 3 had?

3. Forza 2 sold more copies then Gran Turismo 4 Prologue, look it up.

4. Forza Motorsport 2 on a weekly baisis outsold Gran Turismo 3, at least in 2009. I didn't really keep up with sales 35 weeks after launch, but I may look it up after this. Forza is a serious compeditor, stop turning it down, it's much more GT has ever dealth with in the past.

5. Forza 3 is currently at 2.7 million, and consistantly selling among the top 30 games world wide. It's still selling 35-60k units a week. In less then 10 weeks, it will top 3 million, I think the game will eventually get about 5-6, maybe even 7 million sales. More then any other racing game after Gran Turismo 1-4, and the Mario Kart's.



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Michael-5 on 22 June 2010
Hyruken said:
JerCotter7 said:
Hyruken said:
JerCotter7 said:
Hyruken said:
JerCotter7 said:
Hyruken said:
Hynad said:

Wait... Neogaf people that appear to be pissed over something?

 

Talk about a revelation.

 

It has been revealed that those 800 or so other cars will still have cockpit view.  Just not the authentic ones like the 200 premium cars.  As usual, people are making a big deal out of nothing.


That is not what they are saying. They are saying basically the textures have been imported from PS2 and slightly touched up. If you look at the link in the first page your see a picture of the premium and standard ones. Acording to gaf there will be no cockpit view from the 800 and all will have windows tinted and have different damage physics. If you look on page 2 your see some clever people have managed to get some screens and the cars clearly have "Gran Turismo 4" written on it.

Now most of us me included probably couldn't give a monkies, but to die hard racing fans it is a big deal. Especially when you compare it to say Forza 3.

The real car it's based on was sponsored by GT4 so why would they write GT5 on it if that's not how it appeared? Also they aren't just PS2 models slightly touch up. And they have the same damage physics. Just the non premium won't have parts falling off like the premium because what's behind the bumper isn't modeled in them so that's why the parts can't fall off. 

Also look at the video in the thread that you are picking posts that have been proved wrong from. Look for the video of the standard cars with the tinted windows. You can still clearly see in the windows to see that there is a roll cage in one rally car. And the non rally car's can be seen to be different inside. Take a look at a few of the cars in this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzyYxxpvyaw That's how GT4 did it. They made it so dark that you could only see an outline of a driver and 2 seats. These models probably have the same detail as Forza 3.



Erm no i am just relaying info they have used. Which has not been proven wrong as you claim because most is photo evidence...... Like

http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/5487/30vfabt.jpg

 

Yea sorry I see now. Exactly like GT4.



That was someone doing a joke apparently.

This one was taken from GT5 though. This one shows exactly what they are talking about in terms of textures and detail. Apparently car's don't have any mechanics underneath them!

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/2456/rkdh02.jpg 

"I wonder if this specific car really does have a flat bottom like most professional racing cars, but I wonder if standard cars do not have the bottom modelled. Anyone know?"


Left that part out of where you got that post picture from.



I am sure your right that some cars do indeed have underneath protectors i.e formula one cars.

But am not so sure most racing cars have them, especially Evo road racing cars which that is supposedly meant to be. Because how would they fix it when things go wrong during the race?

Most track cars have undercarriage protection to increase aerodynamics. By controlling the flow of air underneith the car, air can be diverted from the wheels, and towards the rear diffuser increasing down force.

If the car gets into a serious damamge requireing them to lift the car and check parts from that perspective, the accident would have to be very serious, and they would most likely remove the car from that race, or if it is a preliminary race, fix it off track.

Off-Road Rally cars do not have full undercarriage protection because they race off road. On a flat track things don't hit the bottom of your car, but on a rally track they do. However usually these are only partially covering parts of the engine to prevent mud from entering, and to physically protect delicate parts.

As for how this relates to Gran Turismo 5, GT5 is suppose to model undercarriages, the game does feature roll over collisions now



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