| Michael-5 said: The simple answer is No Whoever wrote the first post in this thread is incredibly ignorant, and everyone who supports him lack an understanding of game sales. Not to be insulting, Gran Turismo is a great franchise, but Gran Turismo 5 will sell more poorly then all other prior Gran Turismo console titles, and Halo: Reach will be the best selliong Halo of all time, possibly even out seeling the best selling Gran Turismo of all time. Why do I beleive this? Because GT1-4 were sold on the PS1 and PS2, two consoles which are far more popular then the PS3, and simply have a larger instal base. Gran Turismo in the past has outsold Halo titles, but Halo sold 5-11 million copies on consoles having an instal base of either 24 million (X-box) or 40 million (X-box 360). Compare then to PS1's instal base of over 100 million, and PS2's instal base approaching 140 million, thats an incredible acheivement for the Halo franchise. It's like bringing a knife to a gun fight and tieing. PS3 is not the same system as PS1 and PS2 were, and since there is a significantly smaller instal base, this means a significantly smaller sales rate, where Halo will work just the opposite. Lets look at the real important figures, it's about analysing the data, not just compileing it and making statements without sound backing. Gran Turismo 1 sold 10.85 million units on a PS1, with an instal base of 102.49 million, thats an attach rate of 10.6%. Follwing the same logic for Gran Turismo 1-4, and Halo 1-3 we get these results in order from largest to smallest. Halo 2 - 35.1% Halo 3 - 27.9% Halo 1 - 26.8% Halo 3: ODST - 12.9% Gran Turismo 3 - 10.9% Gran Turismo 1 - 10.6% Gran Turismo 2 - 9.1% Gran Turismo 4 - 7.7% Even Halo 3: ODST which is not a porper mainstream Halo FPS title (Just like how Prologue isn't a proper Gran Turismo title), has a higher attach rate then any Gran Turismo game. Now assuming that the PS3 will have a final console sales figure of 65 million units (which is reasonable), and say Gran Turismo 5 has an attach rate of 11%, higher then any Gran Turismo title in the past, you will still see Gran Turismo only selling 7.15 million units. I agree with that figure, I really doubt Gran Turismo will sell more then 8 million units. However Halo: Reach, lets just say it has an attach rate of 27% (the lowest of all mainstream Halo's), and lets say that the 360's final sales will also be 65 million in the end (although I personally feel Microsoft will get closer to 70 million and outsell the PS3, I am purposly lowering this figure to avoid conflict with many PS3 fanboys. This however gives Gran Turismo a little extra edge). This means that Halo Reach will sell 17.55 million units total. Let me repeat, using mathamatics (something fanboys are un aware of), and analyzing sales, we see predicted sales of: Halo: Reach - 17.55 million Gran Turismo 5 - 7.15 million Personally I don't think Halo: Reach will break 15 million sales, but you never know, Modern Warfare 2 surprised us all, and Halo is a more popular and better rated franchise (on the 360, overall Call of Duty is more popular). Now some fanboys may argue this logic, but I have both consoles, and plan to get both games. So you can't label me favoring either side, I am simply analyzing the market. The thing is this logic is sound for non super hardcore titles. Mario Kart Wii sold 22 million units on the Wii which has roughly 70 million sales. Mario Kart Double Dash sold 7 million on a console with 21 million sales. 3.5 times as many consoles, 3 times as many sales. Halo works the same way, Halo 3 has nearly doubled Halo 1's sales, and..the 360 is still 8 million sales short of doubling the original sales. Gran turismo even follows this pattern, Gran Turismo 3 sold 27% more copies then GT1, and PS2 sold 25% more units. Astonishing what math and science do!!! I can predict future sales with the data!! Now, reading some other points there are other factors at play. 1. Halo has more competition this fall, well thats just wrong. Halo 3 had to compete against Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, and Uncharted. Halo Reach has to compete against Medal of Honor, and Call of Duty: Black Ops...Well Treyarch CoD titles have never been as popular as infinity wards titles, and with infinity ward falling apart, this Call of Duty will most likely sell less then Modern Warfare 1 and 2, and possibly even World at War. 2. Gran Turismo has more competition then prior titles, True! Forza is a much more popular selling franchise then ever before. If you compare Forza Motorsport 3 week by week sales, they are supperior to Gran Turismo 3's! 3. Gran Turismo 1 and 3 were released close to the launch of the console, where GT5 is being launched more mid-life, similar to GT2 and 4, so if anything it will mirror GT2 and GT4 sales, True. I predicted GT5 selling a little over 7 million units, GT2 and 4 sold rouhly 10 million units. If Reach outsells Halo 3, which it will most likely do, it still outsells Gran Turismo. It doesn't even have to outsell Halo 3, just has to sell 90% as well to follow through. 4. Many racing fans (myself included), switched over to 360 for it's many exclusive racing titles. Project Gotham Racing 3-4, Forza 2-3, Test Drive Unlimited, Race Pro, etc. It's been 4 years since the PS3's launch, that is simply too long for many and will deminish some sales.
So basically, Halo: Reach will easily outsell Gran Turismo 5 sales, and likely double them (according to my predictions baised on simple mathematics). Shove that in your pipe and smoke it :P |
Your simple mathematics don't apply to this case, its comparing apples and oranges. In this case its a racing game on a smaller userbase on first major release vs a shooter game on a larger userbase on a second major release.
Gran Turismo is on its first major release and it is very possible that there will not be a second major release of this title in this generation, Polyphony will probably just keep this one updated whilst working on GT6 and GT portable next gen (if the PSP2 is coming) or some other game entirely. As Racing games are very similar, once you have one you generally don't need to buy another as the quantity of content is so large and much of it is duplicated between releases. This is completely different to a game like Halo: Reach where there is a new story, new location and people want to get involved and playing with their friends from day one. Unlike Halo, Gran Turismo competes more with itself than any other game.
GT5 will probably have the highest attach rate thus far because it won't likely face competition from GT6 this generation and the lower install base. There are a lot of people who only buy the one racing game in a console generation and chances are, the one racing game they will buy is going to be Gran Turismo. It'll probably clear 10M sold, I really have little reason to doubt that. What I don't know is how much GT5 will go over the 10M mark by, and whether it'll barely cross that mark or if it'll go 1-6M over. So in comparison to Halo Reach which ought to sell in the range of Halo 3 its hard to say like I said earlier which one will prevail in this contrived apples/oranges contest.
Tease.
