Well we have to be honest here even though people know the PS Move is not exactly like the wii the controllers are definately similar. Most people walking around best buy saying  " hey I already have one, why would i need another one." Also the Playstation eye is is not very known. Many people would assume Natal is completely new so they would probably buy Natal insted. Also the casual market doen't really care about how precise it is. As long it works well they will buy it.

Natal certainly. MS is going to put everything they can behind it, and Move is an afterthought for Sony, only created because MS was going to have Natal, and Sony needed something to compete. Also, you need 2 items to use move, instead of 1. Next, the PS3 is more expensive, and thus less accessible to casuals. Also, these types of gimmicky things start in the US, where MS is strongest, and then spread to the rest of the modern world.

So in my mind, Move might do well, but Natal's at lest mild success is very likely.

People like you never cease to amuse me.

You don't know anything at all about the performance of either device. Cost does not efect sale when comparing across consoles, thats absurd. The price of Move is not relative to natal. People only have one console. casual vs hardcore, there arent any games yet, but you've decided? Ok

Natal will sell more because Microsoft is pushing it much harder then sony will push move. Simple as that. wether they last is an issue of market saturation, NOT game quality. Good games wont come until after the device penetration is high. Only good games early on will be 1st party or heavily invested 3rd party. Microsoft pays more for games, they will have more games. Sony cares more about first party.

As for easier to use, thats debatable. You have to completely learn an interfecless interface. A simple controller (wiimote) is similar to a remote control,thats why it was so accessible, noone has ever controlled things hand free, and it could be extremely hard for the casual to learn.

That's funny.  In two weeks, people here will not behave any different than they are now.  The only thing is that the debates will be more heated because we're going to see* what Sony and Microsoft have to show and read impressions from journalist that will be labeled either impartial or biased depending on how people feel about the products RIGHT NOW.  And, to be honest, even if 'Natal' outsells and performs Move by a large margin or vice versa, those opinions will likely not change either because many here chose a side even before either were announced.

Sorry for sounding so cynical, but I've been here for a while ...

* 'see' being the operative word because these are both experiences that will be defined not by the videos we see but by hands-on experiences in our personal game spaces.  So E3 won't give most of us that hands on experience that we need, so we're at the mercy of impressions from others that are there.

What do you mean better performance?  Natal is quite clearly more advanced tech.  Whether that makes it good for gaming remains to be seen.

Move is essentially WiiHD.  So what remains to be seen is whether Natal is the next big thing.  That's all that will decide this.