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Forums - Sales Discussion - Was Blu Ray a mistake?

"Blu-Ray isn't a bad technology, and I'm certain that people who bought the PS3 are glad that it is there but it certainly is the wrong technology for the time."

Blu ray was no meant for instant adoption. The BDA knows the level of market intergration with HD TV's. It is not a question. HD DVD and blu ray are here. The battle has started and the results are who will dominate in the future. It is the early adopters and the small (but growing quickly) segment of this market who determines who is here to stay. I am always baffled about people assuming it is the wrong time.... meaning that most people cannot afford it. But what people fail to realize if more people could afford these hd media and players the battle for a format leader would be prolonged and cause alot of stress on both the consumer and the companies. I think it is just right for blu ray to be out know so 2 -3 years from now when blu ray is the market leader it will prove that sony wasn't kidding when they said they were planning for the future with the PS3.

 

And Blu ray is not proprietary. Every company on the BDA makes a slight profit off of blu ray sales and sony doesn't take up the majority unless it is from their own studio/factory.

 

EDIT: I have always been s firm supporter of space for devs. I was stoked when I learned that the dreamcast were going to have games on 1 gigabyte discs. I was floored when I heard games were coming out on dvds. 



Games make me happy! PSN ID: Staticneuron Gamertag: Staticneuron Wii Code: Static Wii - 3055 0871 5802 1723

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Some people think that online media is merely complimentary to physical media... I am in the opposite camp. As a consequence I am rather bearish on High Def media, but it BR or HD. But this is a philosophical difference and Sony has good reason to push forth BR. A company like Sony might just be big enough to CREATE the market... though again, I hold the opposite view.



the Wii is an epidemic.

Hus said:

was PS2s dvd a mistake... I never had a standalone dvd player sure as hell wont get a br or hddvd standalone since i have a PS3

 Br pretty much has already won... 3 streight months it has taken 70% of the market,hddvd 30%

 dont kid your self... PS3 IS the ONLY reason Br is kicking the shiet out of hddvd, Br wil be a reason PS3 wins in the long run..... perfect long term stratagy.

 HD this HD that... that takes space.... a 50 gig Br disk becomes quite useful. 


 DVDs dn't require a new thousand dollar TV



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

BluRay is a gamble. Ifr it will work for the PS-3 is even harder.

If you have BluRay player, that are less expensive than the PS-3, then it will loose some appeal.

In fact it will even be a question if movie companies would really like to kill the DVD. HD-DVD and BluRay are not cheaper in production than the DVD and you could probably get the most money of a film by the production of an expensive HD disc and a cheap DVD. People who want good quality would have to pay more, whilöe you wouldn't loose customers, that are not ready to pay premiumprices for the HD formats.

I think VHS wouldN#t have disappeared as fast if there wouldN#t have been significant differences in the cosats of duplication of VHS and DVD. And even without the higher quality the DVD had several advantages comparde to the VHS. So I don't really expect such a dramatic win as in the case of the DVD. It is much more probable that the market will deversify and whzile there would be a DluRay there would be other options, to offer the best solution for what the customer wants. 

And if todays hardware will really stay so long? I don't think so. If one would develop an easy to program and cheap HD console, you would probably be surprised how fast developers would switch to support the new console.  



That's a good point. DVD was not only a higher quality format than VHS it was replacing, but it was also faster and cheaper to produce than VHS. You simply can't stamp out millions of VHS tapes in a day, whereas a DVD factory can pump them out like nobodys business for pennies. In addition, dvd features could be exploited by 100% of all televisions. While blu-ray is higher quality than DVD, it doesn't hold the same advantages that DVD did over VHS.



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kars said:

BluRay is a gamble. Ifr it will work for the PS-3 is even harder.

If you have BluRay player, that are less expensive than the PS-3, then it will loose some appeal.

In fact it will even be a question if movie companies would really like to kill the DVD. HD-DVD and BluRay are not cheaper in production than the DVD and you could probably get the most money of a film by the production of an expensive HD disc and a cheap DVD. People who want good quality would have to pay more, whilöe you wouldn't loose customers, that are not ready to pay premiumprices for the HD formats.

I think VHS wouldN#t have disappeared as fast if there wouldN#t have been significant differences in the cosats of duplication of VHS and DVD. And even without the higher quality the DVD had several advantages comparde to the VHS. So I don't really expect such a dramatic win as in the case of the DVD. It is much more probable that the market will deversify and whzile there would be a DluRay there would be other options, to offer the best solution for what the customer wants.

And if todays hardware will really stay so long? I don't think so. If one would develop an easy to program and cheap HD console, you would probably be surprised how fast developers would switch to support the new console.


7 0f 8 movie companys back BR.... Most hardware companys back BR.... Huge majority of the makret is backing Br.

 

 



BenKenobi88 said:
I don't think it was a mistake.

I don't know how the movies will sell, but Blu-Ray as a game format seems like a strong way to compete against the 360 with just DVDs.

BluRay is mopping the floor with HD-DVD, so the movies sell well and BluRay is winning this format war by a huge margin!



Predicting the Future - 360 Will get to 11 Million in the USA this year!!

Predicting the Future - Wii will NOT win this gen in America!!


Prediciting the Future - The PS3 will pass the Wii by 2009!!

FishyJoe said:
That's a good point. DVD was not only a higher quality format than VHS it was replacing, but it was also faster and cheaper to produce than VHS. You simply can't stamp out millions of VHS tapes in a day, whereas a DVD factory can pump them out like nobodys business for pennies. In addition, dvd features could be exploited by 100% of all televisions. While blu-ray is higher quality than DVD, it doesn't hold the same advantages that DVD did over VHS.

 

It's still selling anyway. BluRay has already outsold HD-DVD.



Predicting the Future - 360 Will get to 11 Million in the USA this year!!

Predicting the Future - Wii will NOT win this gen in America!!


Prediciting the Future - The PS3 will pass the Wii by 2009!!

DVD had several advantages compared to VHS, in production and in use. Winding was no longer required (the biggest advantage) and reuseability is much better. Either BD or HD-DVD does not have these advantages over DVD. Sony has made an announcement about a cheap (standalone) BD player, so for PS3 price is no longer an advantage as cheap BD player. This also tells that PS3 does not sell good enough (promises made to the movie companies). Sony could make more money with BD than what it could make with PS3, think how many movies are sold in a year, and a successfull media lasts longer than one console generation. BD has also one more competitor: HVD. If BD or HD-DVD wont win the public, at the time when HVD comes out, people who need to replace their DVD players, will not buy BD or HD-DVD, they buy the HVD. DVD will still last long, since rewritable DVD players exist, they are cheap and theres not so much HD content yet OTA. For example I could buy an BD or HD-DVD player when they have an rewritable option at reasonable price with HD digital tuner and the content i watch from TV is HD. If HVD is out by then, i propably wait for rewritable HVD player. And i think im not the only one.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

FishyJoe said:
That's a good point. DVD was not only a higher quality format than VHS it was replacing, but it was also faster and cheaper to produce than VHS. You simply can't stamp out millions of VHS tapes in a day, whereas a DVD factory can pump them out like nobodys business for pennies. In addition, dvd features could be exploited by 100% of all televisions. While blu-ray is higher quality than DVD, it doesn't hold the same advantages that DVD did over VHS.

DVD had still more improvements over VHS I haven't seen mentioned yet. Remember rewinding your movies? Don't have to rewind DVDs. How about the ability to instantly skip to the scene you want? Special features? Additional audio tracks for commentary? Surround Sound? How about your DVDs not wearing out after repeated use, or eating through a section of tape if you leave it paused for too long?

The advantages of BR and HD don't even come close, and people don't want to buy one until there is an obvious winner, and they know that ALL the movies they want to see will be available on that format.  It's just not going to happen until these players become more affordable.