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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

Final-Fan on 21 January 2008

I think that the PS2 is benefiting greatly from the PS3's hardships. (And, recently, the PS3's gimped cheap version.) As the PS3 picks up steam the PS2 will die out.

Additionally, there is no way the PS2 will last 8 more years. 10 million more to end of lifetime is a more than reasonable estimate.

A_T's predictions may be (are) unrealistically rosy for the Wii (see my earlier posts), and I think the PS3 is going to make a big comeback against the 360, but your PS2 expectations are just as unrealistic as A_T's Wii expectations.

By the way, using software sales of a console near the end of its life to justify hardware expectations is delusional. 



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ameratsu on 21 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Nope, you see this gen is different, people who have never bought a video game system are buying, because of games like Wii sports, and Guitar Hero and Mario and Sonic and so on, see games are selling the system, just not the games that the core gamers enjoy.

well according to VGchartz data, the ps2 version of guitar hero sold the most by far. Discrediting the ps2's casual draw at this point simply makes you look foolish.

 



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thekitchensink on 21 January 2008
Danny355 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Danny355 said:
I find Mr Tyagis predictions to be an odd mix of ridiculously impossible & completely likley... "Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchise" Based on what?!! Insane prediction. "Lifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015" This is completely ridiculous. You just havnt thought this through. By 2015 the PS family could VERY EASILY be around 350 million. The chances of the Wii selling 330+ million units in the next 8 years is not high. I know its supply constrained but currently the Wii isnt really outselling the PS family week to week. Last week the PS family sold 264,000, the Wii sold 224,000. The week before the PS sold 502,000, the Wii 561,000. So a 60,000 unit weekly advantage is going to equal 330million in 8 years somehow? The Wii would have to OUTSELL the PS family by 37 MILLION(!!!) per year, starting from now. Yes you read that right, 37 million per year!!! "Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010" This is possibly even more ridiculous. The PS2 is still shifting a lot of units, this is just NOT going to happen. "Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008" Yup probably. "Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008" This is almost definate. Barring asteroid strike, this is guarenteed to happen.

 Not even close, the PS family (PS1, 2 and 3) are currently topping out at 227 million consoles sold, you really expect they will add 123 million consoles in eight years, not a chance, the PS3 will be lucky to sell even 30 million more, and the PS2 will top out at maybe 10 million more sold maximum, meaining the PS family of consoles will be under 300 million in eight years, even accepting a PS4, in order to reach that level Wii will need to sell a little more than 30 million a year, probably around 31 million a year will do it, which is doable

The PS2 isn't shifting enough units as it was and is in decline, another year of good sales is what we can expect, probably around 120 million maximum, in order to break past that by the end of 2010, Wii would need to sell about 34 million a year for the next few years, again doable

 Wii fit passing the GTA family is based on long run legs and attach rates,  basically an attach rate of about 35% for Wii fit would be enough to net the needed sales to pass the GTA family.


You're just completelty deluded!!! You're entire analysis is based on the thinking that what is happening now and over the last year is not indicitive of reality and that its about to magically change and the PS family will stop selling next week and the Wii will suddenly treble its sales.

Your most severe delusion is your opinion of the PS...You think the PS2 will sell 10 million more world wide maximium ever!!!?? Oh please "take a bet" & put that in your signature, pretty please! The PS2 sold 5 million units last year alone without even counting Europe & Others. Its going to sell a lot more than 10 million over the next 8 years. You say its dying off, yes it is.....But to put it in perspective, lets look at the 2007 US software totals of the Wii and this "dead" console.... Wii software = 37 million, PS2 software = 36 million. I guess you have some magic excuse as to why the numbers dont represent whats actually happening in that case too.

And the PS3 will sell 30 million more in that time period? As much as I would like that to happen, thats just RAVING INSANITY. Thats 312,000 a month on average for the next 8 years. For this month - which is 2 weeks in - we're up to 420,000 already but I  guess thats all about to suddenly change?

To sum up: I think Mr Miamoto could become elected president of earth and your predictions still wouldnt come true. 

 


There is no way PS2 will be around for 8 more years.  It's ALREADY been out for nearly nine years.  There's no way it will be out for 17 years, especially when Sony is touting the PS3's '10-year life cycle' as if that's a big one.  Not that I like to insult people, but it's interesting that you're calling someone else 'delusional'.



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Zucas on 21 January 2008

It sold the best on PS2 because it has a larger userbase and it was the first console the series was introduced on, making it a "brand" exclusive in a sense to the mainstream. Its really no surprise that it sold that well on the PS2.



leo-j on 21 January 2008

ps2 has been out 8 years, also it was only supposed to have a 6 year life cycle.

The ps3 has a 10 year life cycle.



 

mM
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I like Bacon on 21 January 2008
leo-j said:
The ps3 has a 10 year life cycle.
says Sony. I doubt it will last 10 years tbqh.

 



wiiforever on 21 January 2008

^same, esp with the current bashing its getting from the mighty Wii

btw: 400th post :))))))))



Danny355 on 21 January 2008

The 8 year figure im refering to for the PS2 relates entirely to Tyagis 2015 prediction. I dont expect the PS2 to be selling strongly in 2014-15 and never said as much either.

The PS2 sold 8 million units last year. Comparing this years sale to last its dropped by something like 12.5% so far. Even if it drops to 25% a year starting tommorow, it wont be far off 30 million by the end of 2015. If it has another year like 2007, it can drop a lot more than 25% each following year and STILL be in the region of 30 million in 2015.

Mr Tyagi, you seem reluctant but I would like to take up a "bet" with you...Can you put something along the lines of "the PS2 & 3 will not sell more than 40m combined between 1st Jan 2008- 31st december 2015" in your signature. Feel free to break that down into the 10m & 30m you stated for the respective consoles if you want!



Avinash_Tyagi on 22 January 2008
ameratsu said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Nope, you see this gen is different, people who have never bought a video game system are buying, because of games like Wii sports, and Guitar Hero and Mario and Sonic and so on, see games are selling the system, just not the games that the core gamers enjoy.

well according to VGchartz data, the ps2 version of guitar hero sold the most by far. Discrediting the ps2's casual draw at this point simply makes you look foolish.

 


 Never disregarded the PS2's casual draw, but its a system with about 5.5 times the userbase and only sold about double the Wii's amount, indicating its casual draw is not as strong as the Wii's and that is what I have been saying, Wii's is much stronger



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 22 January 2008
Danny355 said:
The 8 year figure im refering to for the PS2 relates entirely to Tyagis 2015 prediction. I dont expect the PS2 to be selling strongly in 2014-15 and never said as much either.

The PS2 sold 8 million units last year. Comparing this years sale to last its dropped by something like 12.5% so far. Even if it drops to 25% a year starting tommorow, it wont be far off 30 million by the end of 2015. If it has another year like 2007, it can drop a lot more than 25% each following year and STILL be in the region of 30 million in 2015.

Mr Tyagi, you seem reluctant but I would like to take up a "bet" with you...Can you put something along the lines of "the PS2 & 3 will not sell more than 40m combined between 1st Jan 2008- 31st december 2015" in your signature. Feel free to break that down into the 10m & 30m you stated for the respective consoles if you want!

 Don't need to, see its already a part of my Wii will surpass the entire family of Playstation consoles prediction, because my preidction takes into account potential PS2 and PS3 sales from this point.  Same reason I don't give a value for final Wii fit sales, because i'm going by an estimated attach rate (similar to the Wii sports/Wiiplay attach rates in japan) factoring in the range for Wii sales I have predicted

 

Also the idea that it will continue to sell well next year and the year after is your speculation you are assuing that sales trends will continue when in all likelyhood its drop off will be accelerated in the coming couple of years, as Wii eats more into its share



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)