I think Sony shipment of 175M software is too low.. Due to lack of piracy n continued growth in catalog titles which can be seen on vgchartz that older games r selling better on PS3 than on X360 and arrival of GT5 n Move i see only PS3 can hit over 125M easily.. and than some 10 - 20M for PS2 n around 50M for PSP.. i think they r going to launch PSP2 this year, or atleast PSPGo is going to have a price cut..

i dont see it as that bleak for Sony

yes for everyone except PS3 just wait to be amazed

Jacob could you tell us more or less or lifetime estimates for all the three home consoles?

The ps3 has not peaked, and it wont peak yet.. because like every console in the past, a $199 price point usually brings about the console's true peak..

so.. until it hits $199, I don't think it will peak, so its 2011 when I think it will peak

^
By your definition, Wii would have its true peak this year

He will say Wii is the exception o_O.

You guys are kind of missing the point. I'm sure PS3 will be roughly flat for hw but there is already evidence software is going to decline for the thing soon.

Here is PS3 SW shipped by calendar year against PS3 hw at the end of the calendar year (since we don't have March 2010 yet).

PS3 SW  Mar Q   J un Q      Sept Q       Dec Q          HW LTD Year    PS3 SW YTD    SW YTD/HW LTD

2006                                                      5.2m                1.7m                5.2m                 3.06

2007      8.1m        4.7m        10.4m       26m                 10.42m            49.2m               4.72

2008      16.8m      22.8m       21.2m       40.8m              21.12m          101.6m              4.81

2009       18.9m      14.8m       23.9m       47.6m             33.52m          105.2m             3.14

To me, I think you have to expect the amount purchased by the entire PS3 base to continue to drop, as it is for all other systems. I have it falling to 2.4-2.7 in 2010. That means if PS3 shipments are 11-14m, you can expect between 44.52m * 2.4 games and 47.52 * 2.7 games to ship for PS3 in calendar year 2010  - thats 107m to 128m games. I'm thinking Sony ships 12m PS3s and the rate drops to 2.5 or so because a fair number of people will be buying the expensive Move stuff. Thats ~111-116m PS3 games.

Basically, the rate of decline that the PS3 base is purchasing software is now faster than the rate of increase for hardware. In 2009, the hw base was 59% higher than at the end of 2008, but the SW purchasing rate by the larger base was 35% lower than the purchasing rate in 2008. That amounted to a 4% increase in software shipments in 2009 against 2008.

For 2010, I have the PS3 purchasing rate declining by less, 20-25%, but the base is also going to expand by less to on a relative scale 33.5 to 46.5 would be a 38% increase, while 21.12m to 33.52m was a 59% increase. Basically, even if you are optimistic the PS3 will probably peak at around 130m games shipped per year, and I think thats a bit optimistic. 110-120m or so seems more likely for the next calendar year or fiscal year.

If you go by fiscal year, the peak is probably March 2010 at around ~116m for PS3.

Edit:

Also, with regards to me predicting 175m games shipped for Sony systems in the March 2011 year...

Sony predicts 200m game shipments in the March 2010 fiscal year. I have that as:

PS2 - 36.8m

PSP - 46.3m

PS3 - 116.3m

(199.4m)

In the previous fiscal year it was:

PSP - 50.3m

PS2 - 83.5m

PS3 - 103.7m

(237.5m)

For the year ending March 2011, you have to figure PS2 / PSP will decline by more or as much as they did previously and that PS3 will be roughly flat (+/- 10% at best/worst in either direction). So for the March 2011 year you can expect something like this.

PS2 - 15m-25m

PSP - 35m-43m

PS3 - 105m - 125m

That gives you: 155m - 190m. I figure its 112m PS3, 40m PSP, 23m PS2

There will probably be a PSP2 this year as well that you're not considering. I think 200 million SW for Playstation products is a fair prediction. I do agree with PSP/PS2 SW and HW decline and PS3 HW/small decline. PSP might not be as much if Sony has a big - that is U$50+ price cut - for each SKU this Fall. PS2 might also drop to U$79 and believe it or not it's still being launched and selling in developing countries, but that will be just HW as SW in those countries are all pirated.

Wii and Xbox 360 have reached their peaks, but I'm not sure about PS3. Many people are still waiting for the PS3 to be $200-250. That is when the PS3 will reach its peak.