You guys are kind of missing the point. I'm sure PS3 will be roughly flat for hw but there is already evidence software is going to decline for the thing soon.
Here is PS3 SW shipped by calendar year against PS3 hw at the end of the calendar year (since we don't have March 2010 yet).
PS3 SW Mar Q J un Q Sept Q Dec Q HW LTD Year PS3 SW YTD SW YTD/HW LTD
2006 5.2m 1.7m 5.2m 3.06
2007 8.1m 4.7m 10.4m 26m 10.42m 49.2m 4.72
2008 16.8m 22.8m 21.2m 40.8m 21.12m 101.6m 4.81
2009 18.9m 14.8m 23.9m 47.6m 33.52m 105.2m 3.14
To me, I think you have to expect the amount purchased by the entire PS3 base to continue to drop, as it is for all other systems. I have it falling to 2.4-2.7 in 2010. That means if PS3 shipments are 11-14m, you can expect between 44.52m * 2.4 games and 47.52 * 2.7 games to ship for PS3 in calendar year 2010 - thats 107m to 128m games. I'm thinking Sony ships 12m PS3s and the rate drops to 2.5 or so because a fair number of people will be buying the expensive Move stuff. Thats ~111-116m PS3 games.
Basically, the rate of decline that the PS3 base is purchasing software is now faster than the rate of increase for hardware. In 2009, the hw base was 59% higher than at the end of 2008, but the SW purchasing rate by the larger base was 35% lower than the purchasing rate in 2008. That amounted to a 4% increase in software shipments in 2009 against 2008.
For 2010, I have the PS3 purchasing rate declining by less, 20-25%, but the base is also going to expand by less to on a relative scale 33.5 to 46.5 would be a 38% increase, while 21.12m to 33.52m was a 59% increase. Basically, even if you are optimistic the PS3 will probably peak at around 130m games shipped per year, and I think thats a bit optimistic. 110-120m or so seems more likely for the next calendar year or fiscal year.
If you go by fiscal year, the peak is probably March 2010 at around ~116m for PS3.
Edit:
Also, with regards to me predicting 175m games shipped for Sony systems in the March 2011 year...
Sony predicts 200m game shipments in the March 2010 fiscal year. I have that as:
PS2 - 36.8m
PSP - 46.3m
PS3 - 116.3m
(199.4m)
In the previous fiscal year it was:
PSP - 50.3m
PS2 - 83.5m
PS3 - 103.7m
(237.5m)
For the year ending March 2011, you have to figure PS2 / PSP will decline by more or as much as they did previously and that PS3 will be roughly flat (+/- 10% at best/worst in either direction). So for the March 2011 year you can expect something like this.
PS2 - 15m-25m
PSP - 35m-43m
PS3 - 105m - 125m
That gives you: 155m - 190m. I figure its 112m PS3, 40m PSP, 23m PS2
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
Essay Pro