We don't have Sony's results yet but I don't think it matters for hardware in terms of the peak.

Year Ending          X360              Wii             PS3               FY Total HW

FY 3/2006             3.20m                                                         3.20m                  

FY 3/2007             7.70m           5.84m         3.55m                 17.13m

FY 3/2008             8.10m          18.61m        9.12m                  35.80m

FY 3/2009             11.20m        25.95m        10.06m                 47.21m

FY 3/2010             10.00m        20.53m         13m (Sony Prj)     43.53m

Sony would have to beat its projection by over 3.5m to prevent a decline in hardware shipments despite price cuts in the past year and prior years from all three companies. Now, here are my estimates for the year ending March 2011 (again, Sony's forecast isn't out yet)

FY 3/2011             8m              18m              12m              38m

The handhelds are definitely in decline too (using production shipments for PSP before April 2006 - PSP shipments to retailers are ~3m lower).

Year Ending      DS          PSP          Total

FY 3/2005        5.27m     3.0m        8.27m

FY 3/2006       11.46m    14.10m    25.52m

FY 3/2007       23.56m    9.6m         33.16m                          

FY 3/2008      30.31m      13.8m      44.11m

FY 3/2009      31.18m      14.1m      45.29m

FY 3/2010      27.11m      10m (Prj)  37.11m

DS / PSP software has definitely peaked too - was 247m in the March 2009 year, will be under 200m in the year ending March 2010.

We don't have sold X360 shipment information, but my guess it has a high-6 attach rate worldwide (its ~5 ish in EMEA and Japan going by our data) so Wii + PS3 + X360 SW has likely peaked too. My guess is it has gone something like this:

Year Ending   X360      Wii        PS3          Total

FY 3/2006      11m                                     11m

FY 3/2007      35m      28.84m    13.3m      77.14m

FY 3/2008     70m       119.6m    57.9m      247.50m

FY 3/2009     105m     204.58m  103.7m    413.30m

FY 3/2010     115m     191.81m   116.3m?  423.11m

That said, the consoles should have much slower declines for software with Move, Natal and higher purchasing rates per base per year. I think we see something like this in the next year:

FY 3/2011   105m       195m*      112m         ~412m

* Nintendo is projecting 165m games for the fiscal year. However that doesn't include bundled software which is now two games for 16m of those Wiis (Wii Sports Resort & Wii Sports for all Wiis sold in the west after May 9, Wii Sports for all western Wiis sold in the whole period)

I disagree on consoles.

I think this year will be the biggest for consoles. Maybe even next year.

If Natal takes off, along with the pricecut and supposed hardware revision... We could see BIG things. Same goes for the Move.

And we have also yet to see the PS3 go below that magic point of $200. Which will more than likely hit next year sometime.

I think the Wii has peaked, but the PS3 and 360 could still both yet reach peaks themselves and keep us in an upwards trend.

Wait... Did i just see that right?

The projected shipments for the 360 is... 8 Million?

Despite a pricecut, Natal and whatever they do with the HW?

So this should mean we will be seeing the next round of new hardware in the near future. Since the this gen as peaked already.

Great thread by the way.

I will be calling the next gen Nintendo home console will be released next year.

Source may be right about the overall HW peak; Nintendo isn't suddenly deciding to bundle a Wiimote, nunchuk, WM+, WiiSports, and WSR for the same 199 just because.  They've discerned that to maintain optimal return, that's what they need to do.  I think they expect increasing pressure from the competition.  Interesting that the bundle, which is almost at its release date, isn't exactly dominating the Amazon list, either (I know, the seals).

PS3 HW has not peaked, however.  There's an off chance it'll sell less next year than it did this year due to pressure from the other consoles' upcoming changes/tactics, but it may be up again, and its average yearly sales over the next two years will be healthily above this past year's sales of ~13m.  Yeah I'm calling it! 

We'll see what Sony projects for the March 2011 year for PS3 on May 13 at 3 AM, but I think they have to expect it to drop, especially if Nintendo cuts price again or Natal takes off. PS3 + Motion is going to be like $350+ in the short term.

X360 has been slowly declining for a while now. I don't really think Natal will be super big, and definitely not initially. If it takes off it will still take some time to reverse X360's decline.

Honestly even if Natal or Move took off and lifted PS3 / X360 to higher shipments for a year or two I still don't think hardware overall would peak just because they'd probably eat into what remained of the Wii market rather than 'grow' it as Nintendo did.

I do really want to see the PS3 forecast though. It has been nearly a decade since Sony systems had software shipments under 200m, but despite having more systems still selling software than ever before, I don't think Sony will be able to forecast more than 175m games shipped between its three platforms in good conscious.

You all need to understand too that some of the Natal / Move users will be current PS3 / X360 owners so software sales may drop off even if hardware picked up as 'motion' for the existing audience is a supplementary experience rather than the experience people wanted initially.

MS doesn't give projections, that's the OP's guess. PS3 HW shipment forecast should be around 12 million as in what the OP predicted because I don't think Sony is dropping the price this year and will instead bundle it with the move for the same U$299 price point, I do think the OP prediction for the 360 is wrong though, slim, price cut and Natal should keep it at 10+million.

Sony will most likely project another 13 million units for 2011.
The main reason is that they ended fiscal 2010 with no stock at retailers so they can easily ship 1 million more consoles than they sell to customers in 2011 if they have to....( by comparison they most likely shipped less than they sold to customers in 2010...)

PS : Software projection for 2011 for PS3 doesn't make a lot of sense, software tends to peak the year following HW peak...

I agree, expecially since Nintendo are starting gen 8 this year.