We'll see what Sony projects for the March 2011 year for PS3 on May 13 at 3 AM, but I think they have to expect it to drop, especially if Nintendo cuts price again or Natal takes off. PS3 + Motion is going to be like $350+ in the short term.
X360 has been slowly declining for a while now. I don't really think Natal will be super big, and definitely not initially. If it takes off it will still take some time to reverse X360's decline.
Honestly even if Natal or Move took off and lifted PS3 / X360 to higher shipments for a year or two I still don't think hardware overall would peak just because they'd probably eat into what remained of the Wii market rather than 'grow' it as Nintendo did.
I do really want to see the PS3 forecast though. It has been nearly a decade since Sony systems had software shipments under 200m, but despite having more systems still selling software than ever before, I don't think Sony will be able to forecast more than 175m games shipped between its three platforms in good conscious.
You all need to understand too that some of the Natal / Move users will be current PS3 / X360 owners so software sales may drop off even if hardware picked up as 'motion' for the existing audience is a supplementary experience rather than the experience people wanted initially.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
