Mummelmann said:
Where have I said that the Wii will suddenly stop selling? Declining and stopping all together are two different things, don't put words in my mouth please. The PS2 had an unusually long life due to the incredible 3rd party support, installed base and of course tremendous lead it had over the competition. The Wii has yet to gain 50% marketshare (and by the looks of it never will) while the PS2 had 60-70%+ at the end and all along in the race, it also came off of a strong foundation as far as 3rd parties and hardware trust was concerned from the original PS (as opposed to the Wii-GC connection). All online communitites laughed at the notion that the Wii would ever need a price cut to keep the momentum (even the grand Malstrom himself snickered at the very thought) and yet, there it was last fall, a significant price cut that didn't even spurr things along until NSMBWii came along and helped. You should also note, to get an idea of the difference in 3rd party support, how many of the Wii's best sellers are 1st party compared to the PS2 (hint; the Wii's top 20 is utterly dominated by 1st party). A lot of Nintendo fans on this site seem to harbour illusions of an invincible force in Nintendo, almost like the playground kids who are sure that their dad is the strongest man in the world. And, yes, Sony fell on their asses this gen and everyone knows it (which was good for the industry, I do not support monopolies). This generation will be cut far short of ten years, the entire site (me included) seem to believe that the next generation starts around 2012, at which point 3rd parties will start moving on (they didn't from the PS2 right away and are even supporting it now) from the current generation hardware (and, please, don't give me that "but the Wii has great 3rd party full support", that's a load of bull). If anything, the 3DS shows that Nintendo are as ready to progress and start embracing newer tech as anyone else, which is good for us consumers in the end. If you want to see me, and indeed the vast majority of this site as deluded fanboys (I know the PS3 tag under my name probably vexes you to no end despite me being a PC gamer at heart) then that's your problem and I really haven't seen anyone give any sound reasoning behind the belief of three or more years from here on out with 20 million + Wii sales. So tell me now; why will it sell 20 million for several more years? And don't show me graphs of aligned launches where it tracks above the PS2, I know all that and like I said above; the Wii is not the PS2 and the battlefield is a different one now than it was then. PS: As for 2009 year end predictions; did you know that Crazzyman, the very symbol of delusion and lunacy in here, was a lot closer on his Wii predictions than the average user? You should also note that the most vocal advocates such as John Lucas have all but vanished and crept into their foxholes for quite some time since things haven't moved along like they claimed with such bravado and certainty. Don't be too sure of anything, this generation should have taught us that not everything follows the same conventions (the amazing flip flopping of the HD battle for instance, is unprecedented in console history) and you can't simply look at the past and blindly believe that everything will be the same. The Blue Ocean is vast, no doubt, but the winds abate like everywhere else (or change directions) and being a sprinter and a long distance runner are two very different things. As for me; I'm just a dude on the internet, like you and everyone else, so you might decide to not give a crap about anything I say and brush me off as a moron but don't be surprised if someone returns the favor (this does not mean I don't give a crap what you say, I obviously do, otherwise I'd hardly write this short novel). |
Thank you for taking the time to actually post reasons and explanations. I still don't think you will be right in the end, but it is very nice to see that thought has actually gone into the process.
First I would like to say that "Why do you believe the Wii will stop selling" should have included a "so well"
First, as to the 3rd party support point
The Wii is seeing some pretty incredible 3rd party games in 2010, not wanting to start a huge list war but Red Steel 2, Epic Mickey, No more heroes 2, a very nice looking prince of persia, monster hunter tri. We also have Dragon Quest X, which will be one of the biggest hardware pushers left this gen. My point is that even though it cant match the PS2 for core gaming 3rd party support, it is starting to come to the Wii. The Wii has also just recently seen the release of its fastest selling 3rd party new IP. And as Nintendo starts moving their emphasis to their next home console, third partes will have less competition, something they've been bitching about for a long time.
That leads nicely onto my next point - many of the experiences on the Wii are enjoyable despite having really bad/basic graphics. Wii Fit will be the sort of software to age gracefully, mario party will still be fun with drunk friends in 10 years time. The fact that Wii software has long legs implies to me that the hardware will.
As for justifications of how the Wii will reach 135 million (assuming the PS2 sells 3 million more units)
2006 3 million
2007 16.4 million
2008 23.8 million
2009 22.5 million
Total 65.7
2010 should end up very close to 2008. It's trending above 2009, and has some very big games throughout the year, so lets say 23.2 million assuming vitality sensor is only a modest sucess
2011 will likely be down from this, but only barely. The Wii2 will probably be announced sometime during this year. 20 million exact seems reasonable - Japanese sales will be very high due to the release of DQX.
2012 will likely see the launch of the Wii 2 in the mid to late section of the year. Wii sales will be down, but due to a very significant price cut not as much as they could be. 18 million on the strength of being at a good price point for Christmas time.
2013 will drop sharply, although I predict the Wii will be used as a crutch for 3rd parties - the development cost for next gen games will be very high, and Wii ports will be easy money in much the same way PS2 ports were for the early part of this gen - 10 million is easily achieveable
That puts the Wii ahead some time during Nov/Dec 2013, although if Nintendo choose to make the Wii 2 a loss leader then the 2012 price cut might be less significant leading to a 2014 or even 2015 date for the Wii to overtake. It'll most likely stop selling any noticeable amount after the 2015 Christmas period. If vitality sensor is huge or there is a price cut before 2012, then the Wii could overtake the PS2 in early 2013
Oh, and as for the crazyman thing - I remember the predictions you were talking about, we all predicted our numbers of end of 2009 sales, then we laughed at Crazyman, then the Wii numbers for Christmas 08 were adjusted down about 1.5 million. If you make the right prediction by analysing the wrong data, you aren't right, you're lucky.
