When will Wii outsell PS2?

[Mummelmann]

I can see it happening with the very best possible outcome of all factors, I just don't find it very likely at all. These scenarios assume that the momentum will remain the same throughout the entire year with only very slight drop off's through the next two to three years and I just don't believe that until I see it (which is the core of the matter; neither side is wrong until the numbers themselves stare us in the face). Nintendo themselves came out and said that the Wii was not performing to their expectations last year and they adjusted their fiscal goal by quite a bit and still failed to meet it and they also seem to have slowed down production, not exactly the actions of a company that is sure of upwards trending if you ask me.

As for the predictions; adjusted by 1.5 million hardly matters when most people missed by 8-10 million... To even think that it would sell less than 70 million was sheer madness, many even thought it was guaranteed to move up to 75 million. I think Crazzyman predicted 60 million, which was about 5-6 million off, give or take, still closer than most predictions at 72 (that was the average as I remember) and it clearly shows that extremely few people on this site know what they're talking about, largely just wild guessing based on preference and wishes.
I missed rather horribly myself, I think I had mine at just above 70 million or so but my PS360 numbers were pretty much spot on, the 360 within one million and the PS3 with only decimals apart. My DS and PSP were also overshot by quite a bit, doubly so with recent adjustments.

I remain convinced that this generation will be a lot shorter than most think, at around six years (seven when you count that the 360 was out a full year earlier) and thus, the Wii won't have the time required to sell 140 million + consoles. Seeing it struggle to reach 50% marketshare (its losing sizeable chunks weekly now, actually) only strengthens my beliefs at this point, the Wii truly is a comet but like all comets it will burn out. There is little else besides guessing on my part here of course, but my guesses are grounded in the reasons I listed earlier; the PS2 and the Wii exist at very different times indeed and we can't simply look at past trends and expect everything to follow in set tracks and unfold in precisely the same manner, and if being market leader was the only requisite for a long life I am astounded that the Playstation did not have the same 20 year lifespan as the NES. Times do change.

One thing remains certain and I'm sure everyone agrees with me here; the next generation will be truly exciting!