Alright I didn't see a similar thread so I'll make one. Here are my predictions.
NA Week 1: 850,000
NA End of the year : 3.2 million
450k
It will have nice legs, but I think people are overestimating this game. The install base for the Wii is not going to all rush out and get this game no matter how good it is.
I have friends at work that can't find this game right now. Granted I don't think they are looking very hard but the BestBuy and EB games I checked at are sold out.
i say 650k
260k 1st week
70k 2nd week
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BOMB!
590,000
Wii code: 4679-4491-5808-6319,MKWii: 4296-3394-2843; Animal Crossing Wii: 3008-1736-4670.
The simplest way to look at this is to compare to Zelda numbers.
Zelda did 2.0 million in VGC USA+Canada data. Launch numbers were ~445k. By the end of that week, Wii had under a 550k USA+Can base.
In Japan, Zelda debuted to 146k at Wii's launch. Galaxy debuted at ~255k in Japan.
I'd say its pretty reasonable to expect upto 775k (255/146)(445) for Galaxy's Americas debut.
Personally, I think it will be more like 600k.
We'll see soon...
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
~496,000
Nice figures TheSource. I'm being a bit more conservative myself, though; I say around the 500k range.
"'Casual games' are something the 'Game Industry' invented to explain away the Wii success instead of actually listening or looking at what Nintendo did. There is no 'casual strategy' from Nintendo. 'Accessible strategy', yes, but ‘casual gamers’ is just the 'Game Industry''s polite way of saying what they feel: 'retarded gamers'."
-Sean Malstrom
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