That's the question I pose in my latest blog: www.alexevansgames.blogspot.com .

Essentially, Guitar Hero and Rock Band died because players became oversaturated with titles. Over the next few years, gamers are going to be inundanted with shooters - MAG, KZ3, MW3, COD spin-off, Spec Ops...the list is endless. Do you think that developers are setting themselves up for a (financial) fall by creating in a crowded genre, and what will happen if or when the FPS bubble bursts? The industry could do without more financial problems.

Thoughts?

No, because FPS games are actually GOOD.

Also, they change between iterations, different series are very different, and of course the most popular FPS (Half Life, Halo, MW) are far more popular than Guitar Hero has ever been.

They will more than likely recess much like JRPG's did post PS1, but they won't die like the rhythm game fad.

I think Modern war based games will eventually lose there appeal, the same way WW1, WW2 and Vietnam war games have slowly died out. The FPS genre in general though will not lose it's appeal as long as games like Halo, Bioshock, Killzone, Half Life etc just keep changing things around to keep it fresh.

No and it's because shooting games have always been around, they're a staple genre just as action films are a staple in the movie industry. There will always be FPS games made because of the PC space as well.

If gamers get sick of them then we may see less shooters, just as platformers have were everywhere in the early 90's and have slown down somewhat today but they will never die.

the FPS genre will shrink, it's just a matter of time.

And then 2D platformers and RTS games can rule the world :D

The reason music games tanked isn't because there were a ton of them available, it's because there were a ton of them available and they each cost $150. If you had to buy a $100 peripheral to play Halo that didn't work for Call of Duty, FPS games wouldn't sell very well either.

Unless there's a change to the current market dynamics of piracy and second-hand markets the online multi-player games will continue to rule the roost.

Meaning that a majority of the sales will be recorded and the developers and publishers will directly benefit.

Though with all the stiff competition in the genre you really need a big budget, strong marketing campaign and critical success to stand a chance now.

If oversaturation could kill FPSes they would be dead already.