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Forums - Sony - GOW3 very much likely to selll 1.5 mn+ first week.

sega4life on 13 February 2010
GameAnalyser said:
RPG said:
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..

 

1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

This is the only correct answer in this thread. Sales of a game have got to do with install base and nothing else at all. The PS3 is 25% of what the PS2 install base was when GOW II released and it only sold 2.6 million. Therefore GOW III will be lucky to sell 650k lifetime, it's simply the only logical answer I can think of.

 


you are considering the ratio of the userbase to sales being the same way as previous gen. how did GOW1 sell more when userbase wasn't as big?

Now u need to relate  to the sales of HALO 3 over HALO 2. Those games are a gen apart. HALO 3 went on to sell more with lesser userbase than halo 2 on XB.

lol dude... he was being sarcastic



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HappySqurriel on 13 February 2010
leo-j said:
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..


1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

When MGS3 came out, the PS2 install base was what? 60 million?

And it only sold 4.0 million to date..

yet MGS4 outsold it on half the install base, and its still selling moderately well

So when is Metal Gear Solid 4 going to break 12 Million in sales, and become a reasonable example of what you're predicting?



Xoj on 13 February 2010

it should sell very similar to U2



leo-j on 13 February 2010
HappySqurriel said:
leo-j said:
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..


1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

When MGS3 came out, the PS2 install base was what? 60 million?

And it only sold 4.0 million to date..

yet MGS4 outsold it on half the install base, and its still selling moderately well

So when is Metal Gear Solid 4 going to break 12 Million in sales, and become a reasonable example of what you're predicting?

what am I predicting?



 

mM
--OkeyDokey-- on 13 February 2010
HappySqurriel said:
leo-j said:
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..

 

1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

When MGS3 came out, the PS2 install base was what? 60 million?

And it only sold 4.0 million to date..

yet MGS4 outsold it on half the install base, and its still selling moderately well

So when is Metal Gear Solid 4 going to break 12 Million in sales, and become a reasonable example of what you're predicting?

No one is saying God of War III will triple the previous games lifetime sales. And as you can see, no one apart from the thread creator is predicting 1.5 million first week. MGS4 is just being used as an example of a PS3 game sold much faster than it's PS2 prequel.

Now read that slowly and carefully before you reply this time.



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HappySqurriel on 13 February 2010
leo-j said:
HappySqurriel said:
leo-j said:
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..


1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

When MGS3 came out, the PS2 install base was what? 60 million?

And it only sold 4.0 million to date..

yet MGS4 outsold it on half the install base, and its still selling moderately well

So when is Metal Gear Solid 4 going to break 12 Million in sales, and become a reasonable example of what you're predicting?

what am I predicting?

While there is no perfect relationship between first week sales and the lifetime sales of a game, there is a relationship there. If you’re making the assumption that God of War III will sell 3 times as much first week as God of War II sold in its first week, then it is fairly safe to assume that you also predict that God of War III will sell (roughly) to 3 times the level of God of War 2.

Metal Gear Solid 4 sold better than Metal Gear Solid 3, but it certainly did not sell that much better than Metal Gear Solid 3; and we don't have data to support it selling any faster initially than Metal Gear Solid 3.



HappySqurriel on 13 February 2010
CGI-Quality said:
HappySqurriel said:
leo-j said:
HappySqurriel said:
leo-j said:
sega4life said:

When GOW2 came out the install base for PS2 was what? 130+ million?

And it only sold 2.6 million to date..


1.5 first week will be more then half of what GOW2 did lifetime on a 130+ install base.

When MGS3 came out, the PS2 install base was what? 60 million?

And it only sold 4.0 million to date..

yet MGS4 outsold it on half the install base, and its still selling moderately well

So when is Metal Gear Solid 4 going to break 12 Million in sales, and become a reasonable example of what you're predicting?

what am I predicting?

While there is no perfect relationship between first week sales and the lifetime sales of a game, there is a relationship there. If you’re making the assumption that God of War III will sell 3 times as much first week as God of War II sold in its first week, then it is fairly safe to assume that you also predict that God of War III will sell (roughly) to 3 times the level of God of War 2.

Metal Gear Solid 4 sold better than Metal Gear Solid 3, but it certainly did not sell that much better than Metal Gear Solid 3; and we don't have data to support it selling any faster initially than Metal Gear Solid 3.

But where has he made the assumption that God of War III will triple the sales of previous titles? He said .5 million to a million more perhaps.

His prediction (in the relation to what I responded to) is that it will sell at 3 times the rate of God of War II; that would be a remarkably inconsistent prediction with it only selling 500,000 more (or 10% to 20% more) than God of War II.



--OkeyDokey-- on 13 February 2010
HappySqurriel said:

While there is no perfect relationship between first week sales and the lifetime sales of a game, there is a relationship there. If you’re making the assumption that God of War III will sell 3 times as much first week as God of War II sold in its first week, then it is fairly safe to assume that you also predict that God of War III will sell (roughly) to 3 times the level of God of War 2.

Metal Gear Solid 4 sold better than Metal Gear Solid 3, but it certainly did not sell that much better than Metal Gear Solid 3; and we don't have data to support it selling any faster initially than Metal Gear Solid 3.

@ bolded: yes we do. We have full weekly sales for both games. What more do you want?

And how is 1.5 million 3 times God of War 2's first week? It sold 550k in America alone. It's safe to assume that it sold at least 150k in Europe so 1.5 million would be closer to doubling it than tripling it.



leo-j on 13 February 2010

No, I never said anything about GOW III's first week..

but squirrel is assuming I agree with the OP..

I expect over a million first week sales, but no I don't expect it to sell 6-7 million LTD, although I do expect it to sell well over 3 million.



 

mM
Wagram on 13 February 2010

Guaranteed 1M First week. But I am not sure how the legs will hold up.