Looking at the numbers, comparing Fable 2, Halo 3, and GTAIV, Gears 2 is shaping up to be an absolute monster.
Midnight sales look VERY robust - almost as much as Fable 2's entire first week. I'll be updating it as time goes on, but at any rate, it looks like the game is headed for major sales.
Now, here's the comparison of said games on 360Voice.com, since they track Day-0 sales pretty effectively (also what I used to track Fable 2's sales, and nailed in within a few percent):
Day-0 Sales/Users:
- Halo 3: 11,703 Users (launched 1-day later in Europe)
- Gears of War 2: 9,505 Users (Simultaneous US/PAL launch)
- GTAIV: 8,282 Users (Simultaneous US/PAL launch)
- Call of Duty 4: 2,329 Users (launched 4-days later in Europe)
- Fable 2: 2,226 Users (launched 3-days later in Europe)
So because of this, it's very likely that Gears 2 will be nestled somewhere around GTAIV (3.3m) and Halo 3 (3.8m)'s launches. Of course, GTAIV and Halo 3 launched very early in the week vs. Gears which launched later in the week. This may skew numbers down slightly, but the comparison is very valid: Gears 3 should sell between 3.0m and 3.5m first week, and around 4.0m after 2 weeks. Very good.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.